Youmans: Four Week 13 CFB bets I like

November 27, 2021 10:17 AM
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Two years after winning a national championship, LSU coach Ed Orgeron is headed for the unemployment line. His job is not done, however, and how he goes out is still to be determined.

Orgeron was not fired, technically, when the school and the barrel-chested, folksy 60-year-old coach reached a separation agreement in mid-October. He’s coaching to the end of the season and receiving a $17 million buyout, so shed no tears for the rich guy. But Orgeron’s home finale Saturday will be an emotional occasion.

The Tigers (5-6) hope to avoid their first losing season since 1999 while sending Orgeron out with a win against Texas A&M, which has not defeated a quality opponent on the road all season. The stage is set for an upset, or at least a dramatic game that goes to the wire.

LSU’s defense has improved in November, and quarterback Max Johnson appears healthy and ready to go. The Tigers’ past two SEC games resulted in an overtime loss to Arkansas and a six-point loss at Alabama. Expect a low-scoring, tight game on a memorable night in Baton Rouge.

The pick: LSU + 6.5

Penn State (-1.5) over MICHIGAN STATE: Remember the Heisman Trophy campaign for Spartans running back Kenneth Walker? It was fun while it lasted. Walker had six carries for 25 yards last week in a 56-7 loss at Ohio State, and he is now limited by an ankle injury.

The Nittany Lions have the better defense and a veteran quarterback in Sean Clifford who can exploit Michigan State’s pass defense, which ranks as the worst in college football.

Each coach just received a mind-boggling new contract: Penn State signed James Franklin for 10 more years and Michigan State handed Mel Tucker a 10-year, $95 million deal. Franklin’s team is healthier and he should win this duel of overpaid coaches.

NORTH TEXAS (+ 10) over Texas-San Antonio: The Mean Green (5-6) will be motivated by the opportunity to attain bowl eligibility. North Texas has won and covered four straight games behind quarterback Austin Aune and running back DeAndre Torrey. The Roadrunners (11-0) peaked early in the season and should be on upset alert.

Notre Dame (-20) over STANFORD: Irish coach Brian Kelly should be thinking about style points as his team sneaks into the College Football Playoff picture. Notre Dame’s defense allowed a total of nine points in the past three games, and the Cardinal offense has been anemic.

Stanford, 0-6 straight up and ATS since upsetting Oregon on Oct. 2, just got crushed 41-11 by a pedestrian California team. Notre Dame has 41 consecutive wins against unranked opponents and 39 straight wins as a favorite.

Last week: 3-1

Utah (W), Wake Forest (L), UCLA (W), Hawaii (W)

Season: 24-19-1

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Saints +3.5. ​​​View more picks.

Greg Peterson: Troy +16 vs San Diego St. ​​​View more picks

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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