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World Cup goal-fest goes to French

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

July 15, 2018 10:57 PM

A decisive 4-2 statement caps off a fantastic World Championship run for the French. Plus a look at the baseball market’s Magnificent Seven entering the All-Star Break. Numbers to follow, because it’s always “A Numbers Game” in VSiN City!

World Cup: France defeats Croatia to become World Champions
Turned out to be a high-scoring shootout. France did a much better job of finishing opportunities that presented themselves…while not allowing frantic Croatia a chance to finish out a Cinderella story. 

France 4, Croatia 2
Total Shots: France 8, Croatia 15
Shots on Goal: France 6, Croatia 3
Corner Kicks: France 2, Croatia 6
Possession Pct: France 39% Croatia 61%
Estimated Goals: France 0.3, Croatia 1.3

Fitting box score encapsulating France’s World Cup experience. France didn’t create a lot of great chances through the month. But it cashed in some sizzling shots from low percentage spots…then protected leads with tight defense. Croatia only managed three shots on goal despite having the ball 61% of the time. France logged six shots on goal with just 39% possession. 

Michael Caley’s “expected goals” tabulation doesn’t shine on France, partly because “own goals” (one deflected in the net off Croatia) and penalty kicks don’t show up as particularly hard earned. France didn’t control flow of play quite as decisively as the score makes it sound…but few were suggesting it was a fluke win when the game was over. 

Hope you enjoyed VSiN’s coverage of the 2018 World Cup on our broadcasts and here in the newsletter. 

Quick word on Wimbledon. Angelique Kerber upset Serena Williams Saturday for the women's title. Steep favorite Novak Djokovic won as a favorite over Kevin Anderson for the men’s title Sunday.

MLB: Boston stays red hot, but others in the Magnificent 7 stumble into All-Star Break
It can be hard to stay focused when a vacation is at hand. More than half of the “Magnificent Seven” teams we’ve been following since opening day (the seven teams projected to win at least 90 games in Regular Season Win totals by betting markets) failed to post a winning record this past week.

The Boston Red Sox went 6-1, making it 12-1 the past two weeks. They’ve built a lead of 4.5 games over the New York Yankees in the race to AVOID having to play a Wildcard game. When it’s all said and done, these first two weeks of July may be seen the deciding factor in the AL East chase. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers also played very well, posting a 5-2 record. They’ve been looking like championship material for a few weeks now…granting that the term doesn’t quiet mean this year what it did last year in the National League. 

Here’s the full run down. 

Current records entering the new week…
Boston 68-30…plus 23 units after a 6-1 week
NY Yankees 62-33…plus 8.5 units after a 4-4 week
Chicago Cubs 55-38…plus 2 units after a 4-2 week
Houston 64-35…plus 1 unit after a 3-4 week
Cleveland 52-43…minus 12 units after a 3-4 week
LA Dodgers 53-43…minus 16.5 units after a 5-2 week
Washington 48-48…minus 18 units after a 3-4 week

We now have four teams in the black even after a lackluster week overall. Though, the Cubs and Astros are a sluggish week away from falling into negative money. When Houston looks mortal, it kills bankrolls! Already happened to the three teams below the Astros on that list. 

Normally at this time, we’d outline this week’s schedule of appealing matchups. No games until late in the week! So, we’ll pick up that storyline in a few days. 

MLB: Bryce Harper the South Point favorite in Monday’s Home Run Derby
There is some baseball-related entertainment you can bet Monday night. Fans will enjoy the annual Home Run Derby. Here are the South Point’s odds as of Sunday evening for the eight competitors…

Bryce Harper 7/2 (22% win equivalent)
Jesus Aguilar plus 375 (21%)
Kyle Schwarber 4/1 (20%)
Javier Baez 11/2 (15%)
Rhys Hoskins 11/2 (15%)
Max Muncy 13/2 (13%)
Freddie Freeman 13/2 (13%)
Alex Bregman 10/1 (9%)

Those add up to 128% because sportsbooks create a universe larger than 100% to represent the house edge. 

VSiN City on “A Numbers Game” all week!
The All-Star Break in Major League baseball also means many of the stars you’re used to watching on VSiN have scheduled some time away. That’s set up a fun rotation that will include yours truly guesting with Jonathon Von Tobel all week on “A Numbers Game.” 

We’ll miss Gill Alexander as he refuels for the second half of MLB and the coming football campaign. Jorge Mondaca will continue to keep everyone in line as producer. Join us Monday through Friday from 10-noon ET, 7-9 a.m. Las Vegas time on SiriusXM Channel 204 or on our webcast. You can also catch a replay of the show later in the day, or on demand after its been posted to the website. 

That’s why this newsletter edition is abbreviated. A lot of prep work! We’ll get caught up through the week. See you from the studios and in your email box all week.

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