WNBA best bets, odds and predictions for Wednesday, July 12

July 12, 2023 07:20 AM

WNBA Best Bets for Wednesday, July 12

Today's slate of games gets an early start as the league heads into All-Star Weekend.

Connecticut Sun -3.5 at Chicago Sky, 159.5

9:00 a.m. PT

The last time these teams played in Connecticut on June 25th, the Sun won 96-72. Even with Kahleah Copper’s 29 points, the Sky couldn’t cover as 6.5-point dogs. Now, the Sun (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS) opened as 2.5-point favorites and are still only laying 3.5 on the road where they are 5-3 ATS.  

Connecticut has been trying to play faster in the last few seasons, and they are now fifth overall in pace and second in pace in their last 10 games. They also lead the league in steals and points off turnovers per 100 possessions, and they allow the fewest opponent points off turnovers. The Sky (8-11 SU, 10-7-2 ATS) are second to last in turnover percentage. The Sun also dominated the paint in their last matchup versus the Sky, outscoring them 54-38. Needless to say, I’ll be backing the Sun here—even as road favorites. The Sun have also had five straight Overs hit (including against the Sky on June 25th) and 13 total this season. With this total Under 160, this Over streak is very much in play to continue. 

Connecticut Sun -3.5 

Over 159.5 

New York Liberty -9 at Indiana Fever, 167.5

9:00 a.m. PT

These teams played in New York back on May 21st. The Fever (5-14 SU, 9-8-2 ATS) lost 90-73 and failed to cover as 16-point dogs. Since then, the Fever surged to relevance and then promptly came back down to earth. Indiana has lost their last seven games and only covered their most recent game against Dallas, which was a one-point loss. On the other hand, New York (13-4 SU, 8-9 ATS) has only covered two of their last six games. 

As far as injuries, Lexie Hull is out with a broken nose, and NaLyssa Smith is out indefinitely after being diagnosed with a stress fracture on Tuesday. Smith is ranked third overall in rebounds per game in the league (9.7), so there should be some extra boards to go around with her missing. 

The Liberty have not consistently covered these larger spreads this season and are 3-6 ATS in games they are favored by nine or more. New York is the clear No. 2 team in the league, and both teams have offenses that can outshine their defense, so I’d lean Over if the Fever can put their share of points up. 

Lean Over 167.5

Dallas Wings -1.5 at Minnesota Lynx, 169.5

10:00 a.m. PT

The Lynx (9-10 SU, 11-8 ATS) are coming off a blowout loss to the Aces and now host the team that just dealt the Aces their second loss of the season. 

Minnesota lost the last matchup versus the Wings on May 30th, 94-89 but did cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This time around, the Lynx are still the underdogs despite being back at home and are 8-5 ATS as a dog this season. Dallas (10-9 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) just beat the Aces by two and followed that up with a one-point road win over the Fever. Minnesota has covered five of their last six games, which just so happens to align with Diamond Miller’s return to the lineup after injury. In fact, the Wings were the very team she was playing when she injured her right ankle on May 30th, which caused her to miss almost all of June. She had eight points, five rebounds and four assists before exiting the game.

Speaking of injuries, the Lynx will still be without Aerial Powers (ankle), Jessica Shepard (non-COVID illness), and Tiffany Mitchell (wrist) for this one. Dallas also added a familiar face back into the rotation recently. Teira McCowan’s return to the Wings has infused some much-needed defense and rebounding which was a huge help in their win over the Aces. In the Wings' last eight games, they have led the league in defensive rating and are 5-3 SU and ATS since McCowan’s return. 

Dallas may be riding high after their last two wins, but they barely won both those games and are only 3-7 ATS on the road and 6-7 ATS as a favorite this season. The Lynx do have home court here, but they have only won four games at home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas has only won three road games. Nevertheless, I’d still give the edge to Dallas here.

Dallas Wings -1.5 

Seattle Storm at Atlanta Dream -6.5, 172.5

4:00 p.m. PT

Last night, Seattle’s Jewell Loyd scored nine triples against the Mystics and became the first player in WNBA history to have multiple games of eight or more made three-pointers in a season. Nevertheless, the Storm (4-15 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) still lost on the road to the Mystics 93-86. 

Now, they fly to Atlanta (on a chartered flight, mind you) to face a Dream (10-8 SU, 11-7 ATS) team that is riding a five-game win and cover streak. Atlanta has only been favored four times this season, but they are 3-1 ATS in those games. They should be able to wrap this game up easily and continue their win streak.

This total is high but not surprising. The Dream have seen 12 Overs cash in their 18 games played this season, while the Storm have had 11 in 19 games played. Both teams are in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating, and Atlanta is first overall in pace with Seattle sitting at fourth. However, Seattle is playing a back-to-back, with both games on the road. I could see this total falling short if only because Seattle is cooked. Still, we have seen tiredness lead to even less defense this season which could still mean higher scoring. 

Atlanta Dream -6.5

Las Vegas Aces -14 at Los Angeles Sparks, 169

7:00 p.m. PT

The Las Vegas Aces (18-2 SU, 11-9 ATS) also played on Tuesday night and recorded their fifth win this season by 25+ points, this time over the Mercury. According to a tweet by ESPN Stats and Info, the rest of the WNBA has two such wins this season. The Aces' +305 point differential is the best through 20 games in WNBA history. The Aces are so unbelievable that they are 14-point road favorites in a back-to-back spot. 

This Sparks team (18-2 SU, 11-9 ATS), however, has seen what feels like a historic amount of injuries. It’s even reached the point of unfathomable by their head coach. 

On Monday, Sparks head coach Curt Miller tweeted:  “While many of my teams have endured injuries, I have never experienced anything like this yr. 19 games into the season, we have now had players miss 57 games with injuries/illnesses. If u included 2-season ending players, we have 95 games missed by players!  #needsage

Short of a major cleanse of Crypto.com Arena, I don’t see how this Sparks team will be able to compete. Dearica Hamby (ankle) is expected to play versus her old team, but Nia Clouden (ankle), Chiney Ogwumike (foot), and Lexie Brown (illness) will all be out.  

Los Angeles Sparks Team Total Under 77.5

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