WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, May 23.
The second week of the 2023 WNBA season tips off on Tuesday, including a rematch in our nation’s capital.
Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics -4.5, 159.5
These teams just played each other on Sunday in Connecticut, and now they face off again, this time in Washington, DC. In the Sunday matchup, the Sun won outright and covered as 1.5-point dogs, 80-74. Washington got out to a strong 24-14 start in the first quarter. They held the lead at the end of each of the first three quarters, despite shooting just 3-of-21 from deep.
Both teams managed to keep each other under 40% shooting, and I expect that stingy defense on both sides to continue. Travel also factors in here, albeit a short distance and in the same time zone. This coupled with heavy minutes from starters and one day between games leads me to take under 159.5. We also saw Connecticut get off to a slow start on Sunday, shooting less than 30% in the first quarter. At home, the Mystics will be looking to avenge the Sunday loss, and while I may end up also laying the 4.5 with them full game (or looking for a better live number), I’m already on the Mystics -2 in the first half.
Under 159.5
Mystics -2 1H
Atlanta Dream at Minnesota Lynx -2, 162.5
The Dream and the Lynx both opened their seasons with losses over the weekend, but one will walk away from this game with their first win. In their season opener versus the Chicago Sky, the Lynx struggled offensively, which is putting it lightly. In the second quarter, the Lynx only scored three points on 1-for-15 shooting from the floor and 11 turnovers. Former Lynx PG Moriah Jefferson is now on the Phoenix Mercury, and the Lynx’s only true point guard on the roster, Lindsay Allen, did not play in the first game due to a hamstring injury. Allen is listed as probable for the Tuesday game against Atlanta. One bright spot was the Lynx defense, which made great adjustments on Friday. The Sky shot 51% in the first half and closer to 30% in the second half.
The Atlanta Dream lost to the Dallas Wings in their season opener on Saturday, in large part due to a barrage of points from Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally, and Natasha Howard. Neither team shot above 36.5%, but the volume was certainly there as the Dream attempted 82 field goals. They did manage to sink nine three-pointers, which is also the number of threes the Lynx allowed from the Sky. I expect the Dream will want to play fast, get out in transition, and get a lot of shots up, which is how the Sky effectively beat the Lynx last Friday. The Dream defense is also stingier than Chicago’s, and if the Lynx offense stagnates again, they could be in for a long night. I’ll take the under again at 162.5, and I would play it down to 160. Both teams struggle with turnovers, so while I lean Dream +2 and think they could win outright, I’ll lay off until they prove they can hold on to the ball.
Lean Dream +2
Under 162.5 (Play to 160)