WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, June 6
The dog days of summer may not be here just yet, but the dog days of the WNBA have arrived. Underdogs have gone 13-2 ATS over the last 15 games played and 22-11-2 ATS overall this season. The dogs will have ample opportunity to keep barking this week, with games on Tuesday-Friday and a huge slate on Sunday.
Las Vegas Aces -6.5 at Connecticut Sun, 167.5
The WNBA Finals rematch we’ve all been waiting for is here, and we get two servings of it. The Aces and Sun play twice this week, Tuesday and Thursday, both times at Connecticut.
The Aces are the last undefeated team left (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS), despite Indiana’s best efforts on Sunday. (Yes, Indiana.) The Fever have seen six straight losing seasons, and yet they were in the lead over the defending champs at the end of each of the first three quarters. In the end, the Aces got it together and outscored the Fever 23-9 in the final eight minutes of the game to win 84-80. They struggled from deep, shooting just 19% while Kelsey Plum was 0 for 6. In fact, she has only made one three-pointer in her last 19 attempts, shooting 14.2% from deep so far this season. Now the Aces face the Connecticut Sun, a team that leads the league in perimeter defense.
The Sun also appear to be the more battle-tested team in this matchup having played the Mystics (winning at home and on the road) and the Liberty, the team that dealt them their lone loss thus far. Last year, these teams faced off seven times including the WNBA Finals, and the Aces won five times, but this is a refreshed and remixed Sun team with a new offense and new head coach. The Aces will come out ready to reinstate their dominance, perhaps at the expense of the Sun, but the Sun have given us every reason to believe they are a top contender this season and are getting 6.5 points at home—I’m in.
Kelsey Plum Under 16.5 pts
Connecticut Sun +6.5
Play to 5.5
Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky -6.5, 159
The Fever are also back in action off that brutal loss at home to the Aces. In that game, Indiana shot nearly 84% from deep, going 11 of 19 overall with Kelsey Mitchell going 5 of 6 from deep on her own while racking up 22 points. That newly found offensive spark will be tested against the Chicago Sky who are currently third in defensive rating.
The Sky just notched an impressive road win over the New York Liberty, 86-82, to split their home and home series despite having just eight available players. Performing at the level they have so far this season while dealing with constant injuries has certainly turned heads and exceeded expectations. While only 4-3 SU, the Sky are 6-1 ATS, which is the best ATS record in the league. They are understandably favored at home in this spot, but the Fever have covered three straight games themselves and even beat the Atlanta Dream—a team that beat the Sky. The Fever should be eager to prove their near-win over the Aces was no fluke and should be able to keep this game close if they can keep up their offensive intensity versus a very gritty Sky team.
Indiana Fever +6.5
Los Angeles Sparks -2.5 at Seattle Storm, 167
Finally, we cap off the Tuesday slate with the conclusion of a home-and-home series. The Sparks hosted the Storm on Saturday, won 92-85, and now take it to Seattle. We saw this line open at -2.5, move to -3.5, and return to -2.5, and still, I’m in on the Sparks who are currently second in offensive rating and fourth in effective field goal percentage. On the other side, the Storm are struggling without the talent they lost in the offseason and have yet to win a game this season (0-4 SU, 2-1-1 ATS.)
Nevertheless, Seattle has seen overs hit in all four of their games, while the Sparks are 4-1 to the over. Ball movement has been in short supply with the Storm dead last in assists, but that’s simply because there aren’t many scoring options. Jewell Lloyd is their clear go-to scorer, averaging 28.8 ppg. Lloyd just scored 37 versus the Sparks last Saturday, so it’s no shock her points prop is now around 26.5, and I can’t tell you not to bet it over.
Los Angeles Sparks -2.5