WNBA Best Bets for Tuesday, August 1
Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun -11.5, 161.5
4 p.m. PT/7 p.m.ET
On Sunday, the Lynx (13-13 SU, 14-11-1 ATS) beat the Sun (18-7 SU, 14-10-1 ATS) in Connecticut, 87-83, and covered as 11-point underdogs. The win was particularly impressive and surprising since the Lynx’s leading scorer and captain, Napheesa Collier, did not play due to an ankle injury. Minnesota has now won and covered three straight, including two wins without Collier, one of which was a win over New York (though New York was in a back-to-back spot and without their point guard, Courtney Vandersloot). So, the Lynx have beaten the top two teams in the East without their leading scorer. Nevertheless, the Sun are still favored by double digits again.
Connecticut went just 3 of 17 from deep (18%) in their Sunday loss, which shouldn’t happen again, especially against a Lynx team that allows the most threes per game in the league. In the first matchup between these teams this season, Minnesota held Connecticut to 7 of 23 (30%) from deep and ended up keeping the game close but losing by five. The second time they played, the Sun went 12 of 25 from deep (48%) and won 89-68. The Lynx have looked solid in their recent games and should be able to keep this close and cover as double-digit dogs.
Minnesota Lynx +11.5
Lean Over 161.5
Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever -6.5, 160.5
4 p.m. PT/7 p.m. ET
Phoenix has taken down Indiana twice already this season, covering both times as an underdog. This time around they won’t have Brittney Griner who did not travel with the team for their two-game road trip in order to focus on her mental health. Griner was the leading scorer for the Mercury in both of their wins over the Fever this season.
Most recently, the Mercury (6-18 SU, 8-16 ATS) lost to the Sky 104-85 on Sunday, while the Fever (6-19 SU, 12-11-2 ATS) lost to the Storm 85-62. Indiana has been slipping since losing their second-leading scorer, NaLyssa Smith, to injury which has also led to rookie star Aliyah Boston seeing more defensive attention. Indiana’s Victoria Vivians is also listed as doubtful for this game due to illness, so the Fever will be particularly shorthanded.
Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces -14.5, 176
7 p.m. PT/10 p.m. ET
The Aces (23-2 SU, 14-11 ATS) just beat the Wings 104-91 in Vegas and are at home again to host the Dream (14-11 SU, 13-12 ATS.) Atlanta just notched a home win over the Mystics, 80-73, but failed to cover as eight-point favorites. In fact, the Dream have only covered two of their last seven games.
The last time these teams played in Atlanta on June 2nd, the Aces won 92-87. The Dream were down by 15 at the half, but they stormed back in the second half to cover as 11.5-point home dogs. With these two up-tempo teams, we can expect a lot of scoring.
The Aces are 8-4 ATS at home this season and have been excellent at covering in the first half, but they can be prone to backdoor covers in the full game especially since there have been only four times this season that they have not been favored by double digits. I’d look for Aces to cover the first half and possibly look for a live Over if the Dream struggle to score early again.
New York Liberty -9 at Los Angeles Sparks, 167.5
7 p.m. PT/10 p.m. ET
These teams already played on Sunday, and the Liberty won but failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites, 87-79. New York (19-6 SU, 10-15 ATS) failing to cover by the hook isn’t shocking, given they have only covered two of their last ten games. In that same span, New York is ranked 6th in defensive rating and ninth in their last five games. Fortunately for the Liberty defense, the Sparks (9-16 SU, 9-14-2 ATS) will still be without Lexie Brown (illness) which limits their offense.
New York is the better team that also performs better on the road than at home (in terms of net rating), so they should be able to cover this spread. I’ve said that many times this season, but “should cover” is not “will cover,” and instead, I’ll look to bet the Liberty if a better number presents itself live.