WNBA Best Bets for Thursday, July 27
Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks -3.5, 162.5
These teams squared off on Tuesday, and while the Sparks were able to end their eight-game losing streak, they failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites, 79-78. The Sparks sealed the win with a Jordin Canada 3-pointer with 3.1 seconds left in the game.
The line on Tuesday opened with Los Angeles (8-15 SU, 8-14-1 ATS) only favored by 1.5, but was quickly bet up. Now, they are laying 3.5 at home in this rematch where the Fever won’t be playing fresh off of traveling. Indiana (6-17 SU, 13-9-1 ATS) beat Washington last week, but they have now lost 10 of their last 11 games while covering four of their last five.
In Tuesday’s win, Sparks’ Nneka Ogwumike dropped a season-high 30 points, Jordin Canada had a double-double with 20 points and 10 assists, and Azurá Stevens chipped in 15 points of her own. I’m not confident we will get such stellar repeat performances. As for the Fever, they have struggled on both ends without NaLyssa Smith in the mix, their second-leading scorer and leading rebounder. Aliyah Boston in particular has seen her production drop with Smith not in the lineup, so if the Fever can find ways to get her easier looks, they could win it this time around. Currently, Atlanta is 9-5-1 ATS on the road, and 12-5-1 ATS as an underdog.
The Sparks will also be without Lexie Brown this time, who returned just three games ago, but unfortunately is now listed as out again for Thursday’s game. Both teams have been on the slower end of pace since their return from the All-Star break, which is why this total seems appropriate.
Lean Indiana Fever +3.5
Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty -9, 173.5
These teams both thrive when playing up-tempo, and Atlanta notably leads the league in pace. Although Atlanta (13-10 SU, 13-10 ATS) is currently on a seven-game under streak, it is more so a result of the struggling, slow offenses they have played than their own doing. New York’s offense has looked effortless and has notably increased in pace week over week. Currently, the Liberty have five players shooting at least 40% from three: Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Kayla Thornton, and Betnijah Laney. These teams already played each other this season three times, and in two of the games, there were 189 or more total points scored. New York is also 14-7 to the Over this season.
As far as the spread, the Dream getting nine points is enticing. In the Dream’s lone win over the Liberty this season, they were getting 9.5 points. In New York’s (17-5 SU, 8-13 ATS) last seven games, they have only covered one time, despite winning all but one of the games (vs. Dallas.) However, while Atlanta is now 10-1 straight up against teams with a losing record, they are not nearly as consistent against top-tier teams this season. The last time Atlanta played in New York on June 23rd, they lost by 30, 110-80. The Liberty have not been covering lately, but they are too talented for me to bet against here.