WNBA Best Bets for Friday, July 7
Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics -3.5, 160
The Fever (5-12 SU, 8-7-2 ATS) have started a mini skid with three straight losses, none of which they covered and now they travel to play the Mystics (5-12 SU, 8-7-2 ATS.) The last time these teams played on June 13th in Indiana, the Mystics lost 87-66. But that game featured two Mystics players that may not be available for Friday. Both Natasha Cloud (ankle) and Elena Delle Donne (ankle) missed practice on Thursday and are listed as questionable. Shakira Austin (hip) is also still out for the Mystics. With the All-Star break around the corner, there’s no need for the Mystics to rush any players back on the court, especially Elena Delle Donne.
Therefore, this is a good spot for the sputtering Fever to get it together. Aliyah Boston scored 22 points on 8 of 9 shooting in the Fever’s last game after two games of scoring six or fewer. The Fever should continue to utilize Boston, especially against a depleted Washington frontcourt. If the Mystics are missing both EDD and Cloud, I could get behind the Fever with the points. The under is also at an attractive number, given the Mystics could be short on a lot of their firepower.
Aliyah Boston over 15.5 points
Las Vegas Aces -10 at Dallas Wings, 175
These teams just played Wednesday in Las Vegas and the Aces (16-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) won 89-82. However, Dallas (8-9 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) was getting 12 points that night and has now covered three straight games. Aces’ Kelsey Plum was a late scratch on Wednesday (non-COVID illness) and is listed as questionable for Friday. Her absence certainly affects this Aces team which typically runs like a well-oiled machine. As for the Wings, Satou Sabally (illness) missed the second half on Wednesday but is not on the injury report for Friday.
In Wednesday’s preview, I mentioned that the Wings are the best offensive rebounding team in the league, ranking second in second-chance points and third in opponents’ points in the paint which means they have the size and speed to compete with the Aces. They outscored the Aces in the paint 44-34 even with Sabally missing the second half. Now Dallas is back at home where they are 5-3 ATS and yet they are still getting 10 points which might be too tempting to pass up.
Lean Dallas Wings +10
Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky -1.5, 169.5
When guessing the lines for these games, I felt the Dream (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) should be slightly favored here, but the Sky (8-9 SU, 10-5-2 ATS) are the ones laying 1.5 points at home. The Dream have won and covered in their last three games.
The last time these teams played was on May 30th in Atlanta. The Dream won 83-65 and no Sky player scored more than 10 points including Kahleah Copper. Since then, the Sky have suffered another loss: their head coach and GM, James Wade. Wade took an assistant coaching position with the Raptors and immediately left the team. With Wade’s departure, the Sky have since appointed Emre Vatansever as interim head coach and general manager. Chicago had their first game without Wade on Sunday, July 2nd, and came away with a road win and cover over Indiana, 89-87.
Atlanta Dream Moneyline +100
Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx -3.5, 164.5
These teams just played on July 1st in Phoenix and the Mercury (3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS) lost 86-76. Since then, Phoenix has had a narrow four-point loss to the Liberty and a blowout victory over the Storm. Meanwhile, the Lynx (8-9 SU, 10-7 ATS) have now won and covered four straight games and have gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games which is third-best in the league behind the Aces and Liberty.
This line opened with the Lynx favored by 1.5 and has since continued to move in their direction. Napheesa Collier has continued to be outstanding and has scored at least 31 points in three of the Lynx’s last four games. On the other side, Diana Taurasi will be sitting out for the Mercury which could further dent their offensive production (10th in offensive rating.) Phoenix also struggles to take care of the ball (12th in turnover %) and had 11 more turnovers than the Lynx the last time the teams played. Although the Lynx are 8-4 ATS as dogs and are only 2-3 ATS as favorites, I’ll still side with the team on the upswing.
Minnesota Lynx -3.5