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Wise to bet on stability in CFB

By Steve Makinen  () 

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(To view the chart associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

If you’re one of the many readers of VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly who have been with us since kickoff of the 2017 football season, you will recognize my methodology on College Football Stability. I offer the analysis at the beginning of every season, and to be exact, for the first four weeks of every season. It is one of the foremost strategies I employ every year to find early value. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded. The logic is fundamentally sound. Returning fewer starters, starting over at quarterback, and welcoming in new head coaches or coordinators are always hurdles for teams to get over. Eventually the teams may overcome these hurdles, but the general thought is that it doesn’t happen early, and oddsmakers don’t account for these factors enough in building their lines.

Having worked with people on both sides of the betting window for many years, I have found that the amount of preseason preparation people take on can vary greatly from book to book and from bettor to bettor. Because of this, there can be huge misses by those setting the numbers. Doing the homework early has become one of the most important aspects for college football bettors hoping to enjoy a successful season. Those bettors who scour the various betting publications, such as the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, before the season tend to be best prepared once Week 1 rolls around.

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