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Wild-Card Weekend NFL betting trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

January 14, 2022 07:40 PM
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Six games are in the spotlight for the first of four weekends in the NFL Playoffs. The Wild-Card Round features several rematches from the regular season, so those games will have a lot of data. We’ve got some more data to provide with some betting trends for the matchups.

Also, if you’re looking for more general trends about Wild-Card Weekend, Steve Makinen wrote up a fine piece for VSiN subscribers here.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 48.5)

The Raiders have rattled off four straight wins by 11 combined points for the right to take a business trip to Cincinnati. Las Vegas kicked a very important last-second field goal in Week 18 to improve to 10-7 and also jump up to the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Raiders covered to improve to 8-9 ATS and the game went over the total to finish the regular season at 9-8 to the Under.

The Bengals are also 10-7, but won the AFC North with that record and are the No. 4 seed for the postseason. Cincinnati went 10-6-1 ATS and 8-8-1 in the totals departments. The Bengals covered, but rested just about everybody in the Week 18 loss to Cleveland.

The Bengals won 32-13 in the regular season meeting, but the game was much closer than that until the fourth quarter.

Trends:

  • Raiders are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their previous five games against the Bengals.
  • Raiders are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Bengals.
  • Raiders are 10-4 SU in their previous 14 games on the road.
  • Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on the road against the Bengals.
  • Under is 4-1 in Raiders’ last five games following a SU win.
  • Over is 14-6-1 in the Raiders’ last 21 games as an underdog.

 

  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four against the AFC.
  • Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their previous seven Wild Card games.
  • Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games.
  • Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four playoff home games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bengals’ last four Wild Card games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bengals’ previous four playoff games.

More Raiders and Bengals Trends

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4, 44)

These two teams split their regular season meetings, as Buffalo won on the road in Week 16 and New England did the same in Week 13. The Patriots went 10-7 SU and lost the division by a game to the Bills, who went 11-6. Both teams turned in 10-7 ATS records for the season. New England went 9-8 to the Over and Buffalo went 9-8 to the Under.

That Week 16 game may have illustrated the differences between the two teams, as Buffalo won comfortably in a game that was not marred by extreme wind gusts like the first matchup.

Trends:

  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff road games.
  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games overall.
  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in January.
  • Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games following a SU loss.
  • Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games.
  • Over is 9-3-1 in Patriots’ previous 13 Saturday games.
  • Over is 11-4 in Patriots’ last 15 playoff games.
  • Over is 9-4 in Patriots’ previous 13 games overall.

 

  • Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against the AFC East.
  • Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite.
  • Bills are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 home games.
  • Bills are 11-5-2 ATS in their previous 18 games as a home favorite.
  • Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their previous seven meetings.
  • Patriots are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Buffalo.

More Patriots and Bills Trends

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, 46)

The threat of rain and wind has pushed this total down a few points, but the spread has stayed basically the same for the matchup between the Eagles and the Buccaneers. These two teams met earlier this season and Tampa Bay won 28-22, but failed to cover the -7 spread. It was a game that the Bucs comfortably won in the box score, though.

Philadelphia went 9-8 SU and 8-8-1 ATS with a 10-7 mark to the Over. Tampa Bay went 13-4 SU with a 9-8 ATS record. The Bucs were slightly on the Over side of things with a record of 9-8 in the totals department.

Trends:

  • Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their previous 11 playoff games as an underdog.
  • Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games.
  • Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following a SU loss.
  • Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff road games.
  • Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a road underdog.
  • Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC.
  • Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their previous five Wild Card games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Eagles’ last four Wild Card games.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Eagles’ previous six games in January.
  • Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ last five games overall.

 

  • Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their previous six playoff games as a favorite.
  • Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Wild Card games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers’ previous six playoff games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers’ last six games in January.
  • Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers’ previous six against the NFC.
  • Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers’ last six playoff home games.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings.

More Eagles and Buccaneers Trends

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 51)

This is the highest total on the board as the 49ers and Cowboys get together in the only game that is not a regular season rematch. The 49ers were a darling by the advanced metrics for most of the season, but still only wound up 10-7 SU. That was after a very slow 2-4 start. The 49ers finished the regular season 9-8 ATS and 8-8-1 on totals.

The Cowboys went 12-5 SU and did even better in the ATS department with a 13-4 record for those that put their trust in Dallas. Surprisingly, with all kinds of offensive weapons, Dallas was 9-8 to the Under. The Cowboys played very well down the stretch, but the level of competition now takes a big step up.

Trends:

  • 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
  • 49ers are 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five meetings in Dallas.
  • Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
  • 49ers are 9-4 ATS in their previous 13 games as a road underdog.
  • 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff road games.
  • 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their previous five playoff games as an underdog.
  • Under is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last four playoff road games.
  • Under is 5-1 in 49ers’ previous six playoff games.

 

  • Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games as a favorite.
  • Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their previous five playoff home games.
  • Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games.
  • Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games in January.
  • Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Over is 5-1 in the previous six meetings in Dallas.

More 49ers and Cowboys Trends

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 46.5)

From the biggest total to the biggest spread for Wild-Card Weekend. The Chiefs are laying double digits for the second time in a few short weeks against the Steelers. Kansas City won 36-10 while dealing with COVID concerns in Week 16 over the visiting Steelers.

Pittsburgh wound up 9-7-1 SU, but the point differential and other stats would indicate that this was more like a seven-win team. Kansas City went 12-5 SU. Both teams were 8-9 ATS, with Pittsburgh 10-7 to the Under and Kansas City 10-7 to the Over, much to the shock of absolutely no one.

Trends:

  • Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
  • Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games following an ATS win.
  • Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Wild Card games.
  • Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their previous 10 playoff games.
  • Steelers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven playoff road games.
  • Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven meetings in Kansas City.
  • Over is 19-6-1 in the Steelers’ last 26 playoff games.
  • Under is 4-2 in the Steelers’ previous six games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last five road games.

 

  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their previous four home games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Chiefs’ previous five games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-0 in Chiefs’ last five against the AFC.
  • Over is 7-1 in Chiefs’ previous eight games in January.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five Wild Card games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the previous five meetings in Kansas City.

More Steelers and Chiefs Trends

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 49.5)

The first-ever Monday Night Football Wild-Card Game features division rivals that split regular season meeting. The Cardinals went 11-6 SU and still had a chance to win the NFC West in Week 18, but lost to the Seahawks. Arizona did go 10-7 ATS, a better mark than the Rams, who finished up at just 8-9 ATS.

Los Angeles did, however, back into the NFC West title with a record of 12-5 after losing to the 49ers in Week 18. The Rams went 9-7-1 in the totals department and the Cardinals were 9-8 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Cardinals are 3-8 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in January.
  • Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games overall.
  • Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
  • Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their previous four playoff games.
  • Cardinals are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five meetings in Los Angeles.
  • Over is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last six playoff games as an underdog.
  • Under is 8-1 in the Cardinals’ previous nine Monday games.
  • Over is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last seven playoff games.

 

  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their previous five playoff games as a favorite.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff home games.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their previous five home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
  • Rams are 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Rams’ last seven playoff games as a favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in Rams’ last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

More Cardinals and Rams Trends

 

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