Wild-card NFL best bets: A play on every game

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January 10, 2021 07:15 AM

The 2020 NFL Playoffs have finally arrived.

With COVID-19 concerns in several games, be sure to check injury reports as we get closer to kickoff. Our experts Drew Dinsick, Dave Tuley and Matt Youmans combine to give their opinions on every game.

All odds as of Thursday morning, from VSiN's NFL odds page.


Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 54.5) at Tennessee Titans

Tuley: My Cardinals NFC futures are dead, but I still have my top pick in the AFC -- the Titans, at 40-1 -- to win the Super Bowl. They’re currently around 30-1 to 35-1 as I was expecting them to get a first-round bye and be lower by this time. Still, I love them on Sunday against the Ravens and I believe they should be favored. Is everyone forgetting that the Titans beat the Ravens 30-24 in November after running over them 28-12 in the playoffs last year?

Some books have gone back up to 3.5, but if you can’t get that, the + 3 (available at even money at several books) is still a great bet as well as the moneyline of around + 155. Just in case, I’ll be teasing them up over a touchdown, but I think that’s like buying unnecessary insurance.

Pick: Titans + 3 or better and Titans + 135 or better on ML, plus using Titans in teasers.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-10, 47)

Tuley: Regular VSiN readers probably are assuming I’m taking the Bears, and not just because I grew up in the Chicago suburbs and have a daughter named after Walter Payton, but also because they’re the biggest ‘dog on the board. However, while most others are passing on the Bears because of a lack of faith in Mitchell Trubisky, the thing that keeps me off them is that the better defense is actually in New Orleans -- which adds to the lack of faith in Trubisky. I think the Bears defense will also step up and give the Bears their best chance, which is why I think the best play is on the Under. If this line wasn’t quite so high, I’d recommend a teaser on the Saints, but I don’t like -3.5 and I’m not crazy about paying extra juice to buy seven points to get it under a field goal.

Pick: Under 47

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 47.5)

Tuley: When I originally submitted my plays for the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in Point Spread Weekly, I included Browns-Steelers Over 46.5; then the total was bet to 47 and even 47.5 on Tuesday and I changed it to Bears-Saints Under 47. My trust in the Over also took a hit when it was announced that Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski will miss the game after a positive COVID-19 test. I expect this game to be more like the Steelers’ 38-7 rout on Oct. 18 and less like the Browns’ 24-22 win this past Sunday, in which Pittsburgh nearly rallied to win despite being short-handed. I’m not laying the points, but I’m including the Steelers in teasers as they just have to win the game.

Pick: Pass, except using Steelers in teasers

Completed games

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 50.5)

Youmans: Colts + 6.5/+ 7

Dinsick: Under 51.5

Tuley: Pass, except teasers with Bills

Final score: Bills 27, Colts 24

​ATS winner: Colts

Total: OVER

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 42.5)

Dinsick: Rams + 3.5

Youmans: Rams + 3.5, Under 42.5

Final score: Rams 30, Seahawks 20

ATS winner: Rams

Total: OVER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, 45) at Washington Football Team

Tuley: Washington + 8.5 or better, though using Buccaneers -2 or -2.5 in some teasers 

Dinsick: Under 45

Youmans: Washington + 8.5, Under 45


Final score: Bucs 31, Washington 23

ATS winner: Washington

Total: OVER

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A Numbers Game: Keep an eye out for diminishing returns on teams that you were high on at the beginning of the season like the Colts. Know when to sell on these teams.

Follow The Money: QB play is down in the NFL, according to Michael Lombardi. Worth looking at more Unders until it changes.

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Tim Murray: Florida -10 vs Mizzou

Dave Tuley: Texans +7 at Jaguars

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers



Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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