I put a ton of emphasis on the quality of an NFL team’s starting quarterback. In my opinion, if overall talent is 1A in terms of what is most important on the field, head coaches and starting quarterbacks are 1B. Simply put, teams that are stable at QB always seem to be in the postseason hunt. Those that have an annual carousel of signal-callers are usually home for the playoffs, changing coaches and looking forward to replacing their quarterback in the upcoming draft.
As bettors, we generally believe that team success translates into point-spread success, so teams with better quarterbacks make for better bets. So here is my annual snapshot of each team’s starting quarterback or rotating QBs, examining their betting performance records in many scenarios.
Of the 38 quarterbacks analyzed, 27 boast an ATS record of 50% or better. I didn’t include Dak Prescott of Dallas because he is out for the season. You might question how so many QBs can boast .500 records or better, but consider that the guys who have lost more games against the spread probably are no longer starters. You’ll also see that Teddy Bridgewater (33-11 ATS, 75%) tops the list of ATS success among players who have started at least 10 games, with Joe Burrow matching that ATS win percentage in his first eight starts. New York Jets starter Sam Darnold (35%) and San Francisco’s Nick Mullens (36%) bring up the rear. The ATS record of Matthew Stafford (45%) makes you wonder how he has been able to hang on as a starter as long as he has.
Here are some of the betting trend highlights you’ll want to note and recall for future reference: