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Where the money is flowing for Eagles-Giants on MNF

December 8, 2019 11:26 PM

Sunday was a banner day for both public bettors and sharp line movement as NFL favorites went 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%). Sportsbooks took a big hit as "popular" teams getting more than half the betting tickets (many receiving support from both Pros and Joes) went 10-3-1 ATS (83.3%).  


Wiseguys cashed their sharpest play of the day as the Rams "upset" the Seahawks 28-12 on Sunday Night Football. More than two-thirds of bets backed Seattle but Los Angeles had razor sharp reverse line movement plus 2.5 to -1. The under 48 also cashed, pushing primetime unders (Thursday Night, Sunday Night, Monday Night) to 26-16 (62%) on the season.


Pros and Joes won big on the 49ers, who took down the Saints 48-46 on a last-second field goal. San Francisco opened at plus 3 and closed at plus 1.5 behind both casual and sharp money support. 


The biggest contrarian win of the day was the Redskins. Only one-third of bets took Washington plus the points (opened plus 14 and closed plus 13) against Green Bay. The Packers won 20-15 but the 'Skins covered. 


More sharp dogs that covered included the Broncos (plus 9.5 to plus 8, beat Texans straight up 38-24), Dolphins (plus 6 to plus 5, lost to Jets 22-21) and Chiefs (plus 3, beat Patriots 23-16). 


Road favorites went a perfect 4-0 ATS

Titans (-3) beat Raiders 42-21

Steelers (-2.5) beat Cardinals 23-17

Chargers (-3.5) crushed Jaguars 45-10

Ravens (-6.5) beat Bills 24-17


Sharps and squares also cashed with the Falcons, who moved from -2.5 to -3.5 and crushed the Panthers 40-20. The Bucs were the lone push of the day. Tampa Bay (-3) beat Indianapolis 38-35. 


Now we turn our attention to Monday where we have 9 NBA games, 4 NHL games, 3 College Basketball games and, of course, Monday Night Football. For an updated betting breakdown of Monday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.


Until then, let's discuss where smart money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 14.


8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants (2-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

After an epic Sunday filled with thrilling finishes, this Monday Night divisional matchup feels like a let down. The Eagles have dropped three straight and are coming off a terrible 37-31 loss to the Dolphins as 10.5-point favorites. Philadelphia is -10 in point differential, averaging 22.83 PPG on offense and allowing 23.67 PPG on defense. However, as bad as it's been for Philly, the Eagles still have a shot at the playoffs. With a win, Philadelphia can pull even with the Cowboys for the 1st place in the NFC East (both teams would be 6-7 but Dallas holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating Philadelphia 37-10 in mid-October). 


A date with the Giants may be just what the doctor ordered for the Eagles. New York has lost eight straight and owns the 2nd worst record in the NFL behind the 1-12 Bengals. Last week the Giants fell to the Packers 31-13 at home as a 6.5-point dog. New York is -109 in point differential, averaging 19.17 PPG on offense and giving up 28.25 PPG on defense. The Giants will be starting old friend Eli Manning at quarterback tonight as rookie Daniel Jones is out with an ankle injury. This will be Manning's first start since Week 3.


This line opened with the Eagles listed as 8.5-point home favorites. A slight majority of bets, along with some early sharp action, came down on Philadelphia. This pushed the line up to the key number of 10 across the market. That's when you saw some sharp buyback on the Giants plus 10, dropping the line back down to 9.5. Divisional road dogs are 21-14 ATS (60%) this season. Road dogs off a loss are 39-23 ATS (63%). Both teams are 4-8 ATS on the season.


Sharps have also gotten down on the total. It opened at 47 and has fallen to 45 despite a slight majority of bets taking the over. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the under. Primetime unders are 26-16 (62%) this season and December divisional unders 45 or higher are 60% since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports.. The forecast calls for 13-15 MPH winds and possibly some rain. Windy unders 10 MPH or more in conference games are 21-11 (66%) this year and 57% since 2003. 

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