Live On Air

Streaming now: Prime Time Action

play Watch Live radio Listen Live

When discretion is the better part of baller

By Jeff Fogle  ( 

March 7, 2019 11:27 PM

When discretion is the better part of baller.

Two-time defending NBA champion Golden State knows it has an extra gear it can dust off come playoff time. That’s why it’s been getting such horrible results against market point spreads in recent action. The Warriors are pacing themselves for games that matter.

Will they prioritize Friday night’s marquee matchup at home against Denver (ESPN, 10:35 p.m.)? Those two are now neck-and-neck in the battle for top seed in the Western Conference brackets. If both show up, bettors would get a great read on playoff readiness. 

You may have stayed up late Tuesday to watch a game the Warriors didn’t show up for. Boston ( 6.5) annihilated them 128-95. That was almost a 40-point failure. It goes on the list of recent big Golden State misses.

Not-so-Golden State:

GS (-6.5) lost to Boston 128-95 (39.5-point miss)

GS (-4.5) lost at Orlando 103-96 (11.5-point miss)

GS (-9.5) lost at Miami 126-125 (10.5-point miss)

GS (-12) lost to Houston 118-112 (18-point miss)

GS (-12.5) only beat Sacramento 125-123 (10.5-point miss)

GS (-2) lost at Portland 129-107 (24-point miss)

GS (-13.5) only beat Miami 120-118 (11.5-point miss)

Those are lowlights from an even longer stretch. Bettors fading the overpriced Warriors have cashed ticket after ticket. Steph Curry and company are 1-10 ATS their last 11 games, 2-12 ATS their last 14. 

It would be extreme to suggest that the NBA regular season is one long exhibition slate until the playoffs begin. Results do determine who qualifies where in the postseason. But, the season’s sheer length allows teams to pick spots or stretches they can virtually discard.

Handicappers and bettors must develop a sense of how coaches and players prioritize during the regular season. If you can attain that knack, betting smart becomes much easier. But, if your first inclination is to look for favorites you think are going to crush opponents, you’re going to be constantly frustrated because those teams could care less about winning your bet for you…particularly when pacing themselves until a championship is on the line.  

At the very least, watching Friday’s late telecast could give bettors a sense of how Denver is getting things done this season. Many in the markets and media left the Nuggets off their radar because Denver didn’t seem like a truly serious threat in the West. It’s easier to be a playoff threat when your home games are played a mile high, particularly if you earn the top seed in your conference! (File this away for future use: Denver is 27-6 straight up at home this season, 22-11 against the spread.)

Will the Warriors show up with seeding at stake? Answer that question correctly, and the game picks itself. Is Denver ready to matter in the West? If it can’t get a result Friday against a team that’s just posted a slew of double-digit non-covers, probably not.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.


View All
  • Bulls' Futures Improve with DeRozan, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

    Bulls' Futures Improve with DeRozan, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

    Day 1 of NBA Free Agency was won by the Miami Heat, who improved from + 3500 to + 2500 to win the NBA Title after signing Kyle Lowry....
  • Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (8-4)

    Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (8-4)

    MONEY MATTER$: After three weeks, it appears Mr. Ed is better at predicting the weather than picking winners … No one promised Mr. Ed a rose...
  • youmans

    Sharps get in on preseason action

    When the NFL preseason kicks off Thursday, the only action Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might get is a TV interview with a sideline reporter....
  • USATSI_16495000

    My favorite Olympic bets for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning

    It was a disappointing walk-off loss for Team Israel against the Dominican Republic in Olympic baseball. I thought we were going to get a nice winner...
  • reynolds

    Best bets for Memphis PGA event

    The PGA Tour took a week off for the Olympic Games but returns to Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational with an elite field of just 66 players....
  • kuhn

    Analytical look at UFC 265

    (To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) Even with the loss of an Amanda Nunes title defense, the fight card...
  • finocchiaro

    Gane, Lewis offer UFC contrasts

    UFC 265 will be held in front of a packed house Saturday in Houston. This fight card is stacked with key matchups and clashes of styles featuring fighters...
  • hill

    Split ticket: 1 bet on NFL, 1 on MLB

    Surely some of you have these types of people in your life: “You bet on the NFL preseason?” Those who judge you for betting on the NFL exhibition...
  • tuley

    Tuley's Takes on NFL topics

    I celebrated my 55th birthday Monday, and my best gift every year at the Tuley’s Takes home office party is that football season is here! The...
  • makinen_cfl

    Getting reacquainted with CFL

    Football returns this weekend, not quite in full force. But unlike the NFL preseason game Thursday night, the results actually count in the Canadian Football...
  • andrews

    Outlooks for Steelers, Cowboys

    Don’t get caught napping! Pro football returns Thursday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys in the annual Hall of Fame Game...
  • makinennfl

    Betting trends for HOF game

    (To view the chart accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) It’s not the Super Bowl or the regular-season kickoff, but the...

VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!


  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store