What the stats tell you about the Super Bowl

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February 5, 2017 01:54 PM

By Gill Alexander

VSiN host

Stats and Trends to watch in Super Bowl LI:

Barring any dramatic unforeseen development, Super Bowl LI between the

Falcons and Patriots will kick off with the highest total ever for a Super

Bowl at 58.5.  Only 8 games to date in NFL history have had a total of

over 57.  In that subset, tickets on the over have cashed every time,

going 8-0.

There have only been six Super Bowls (out of 50) in which the point spread

has come into play, meaning the favorite won but didn't cover.  In other

words, in the other 44, one just had to pick the winner to cash ATS bets. 

The Patriots are favored by 3 points over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI.

Since 1996, teams scoring 40 or more points in NFL playoff games are 11-18

SU & 4-24-1 ATS in their following game (via Marc Lawrence). The Falcons

scored 44 points two weeks ago in their NFC Championship rout of the


The Falcons are seeking to become the highest-scoring team (540 regular

season points) to ever win a Super Bowl.  The 7 teams in history that

finished with more regular season points than the Falcons had this season

all failed to win the Super Bowl.

The Patriots, who will be playing in their 7th Super Bowl in the last 16

seasons, have scored in a remarkable 31 straight quarters.  On the other

hand, New England hasn't scored a single point in the first quarter of any

of their 6 Super Bowl appearances under Bill Belichick.

In 2016, Tom Brady posted an 82.7 QBR in the 4th quarter and an 89.0 Total


in two-minute drills, the third best mark in that category. Newly crowned

NFL MVP Matt Ryan, on the other hand, had a 54.3 fourth-quarter QBR which

ranked 19th in the NFL.  Most shockingly, when trailing, his Total QBR in

the final two minutes was an anemic 2.2.  Out of 100. (via ESPN Stats &


After a Week 11 bye, the Falcons posted an NFL-high 47% on 3rd down

conversions, almost 8 percentage points higher than before their bye week.

(via ESPN Stats & Info)

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