By Gill Alexander
Stats and Trends to watch in Super Bowl LI:
Barring any dramatic unforeseen development, Super Bowl LI between the
Falcons and Patriots will kick off with the highest total ever for a Super
Bowl at 58.5. Only 8 games to date in NFL history have had a total of
over 57. In that subset, tickets on the over have cashed every time,
There have only been six Super Bowls (out of 50) in which the point spread
has come into play, meaning the favorite won but didn't cover. In other
words, in the other 44, one just had to pick the winner to cash ATS bets.
The Patriots are favored by 3 points over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI.
Since 1996, teams scoring 40 or more points in NFL playoff games are 11-18
SU & 4-24-1 ATS in their following game (via Marc Lawrence). The Falcons
scored 44 points two weeks ago in their NFC Championship rout of the
The Falcons are seeking to become the highest-scoring team (540 regular
season points) to ever win a Super Bowl. The 7 teams in history that
finished with more regular season points than the Falcons had this season
all failed to win the Super Bowl.
The Patriots, who will be playing in their 7th Super Bowl in the last 16
seasons, have scored in a remarkable 31 straight quarters. On the other
hand, New England hasn't scored a single point in the first quarter of any
of their 6 Super Bowl appearances under Bill Belichick.
In 2016, Tom Brady posted an 82.7 QBR in the 4th quarter and an 89.0 Total
in two-minute drills, the third best mark in that category. Newly crowned
NFL MVP Matt Ryan, on the other hand, had a 54.3 fourth-quarter QBR which
ranked 19th in the NFL. Most shockingly, when trailing, his Total QBR in
the final two minutes was an anemic 2.2. Out of 100. (via ESPN Stats &
After a Week 11 bye, the Falcons posted an NFL-high 47% on 3rd down
conversions, almost 8 percentage points higher than before their bye week.
(via ESPN Stats & Info)