What pros like on 'Action Friday'

November 29, 2019 12:20 AM

The day after Thanksgiving is popularly referred to as Black Friday: when Americans flock to the malls to take advantage of big discounts and begin the Christmas shopping spree. But for bettors, today should be called "Action Friday" due to the incredible all day action across multiple sports. 

Simply put, today is one of the best betting days of the year. Hopefully you have the day off and can partake in the all-day sweat, along with some Turkey Day leftovers. Friday's post-Thanksgiving feast features 15 College Football games, with six starting at noon ET.

We also have 40 college basketball games, 13 NBA games and 12 NHL games. For an updated betting breakdown of Friday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, here are a handful of Friday college football games receiving smart money.

Noon ET: Texas Tech (4-7) at Texas (6-5)

Both of these teams are mired in two-game losing streaks. Texas Tech just lost to Kansas State 30-27 as a 1-point dog while Texas just fell to Baylor 24-10 as a 4-point dog. This Big 12 battle for Lone Star bragging rights opened with Texas listed as a 9-point home favorite. The public says these teams are relatively equal and that's way too many points to lay. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Texas Tech, this line has moved to Texas -10. What caused this sharp reverse line movement? Wiseguys are fading the trendy dog and got down on the Longhorns at -9. We've also seen sharp money hit the under. The forecast calls for 9-12 MPH winds and possibly some light rain. The total has fallen from 65 to 64. When the wind blows 8 MPH or more and line stays the same or falls the under is 56% since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. 

Noon ET: Kent State (5-6) at Eastern Michigan (6-5)

These MACtion rivals are both riding two-game winning (and covering) streaks. Kent State upset Buffalo 30-27 as a 6-point dog and then took down Ball State 41-38 as a 3-point dog. Eastern Michigan crushed Akron 42-14 as a 17-point favorite beat NIU 45-17 as a 3.5-point dog. Kent State is averaging 26.82 PPG on offense and giving up 31.55 PPG on defense. Eastern Michigan is averaging 29.36 PPG on offense and giving up 30 PPG on defense. Kent State is 7-4 ATS while EMU is 5-6 ATS. This line opened with Eastern Michigan listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Despite a slight majority of bets laying the points with EMU, the line has tumbled down to 4. This was caused by pro bettors loading up on Kent plus the points. Short road dogs plus 4 or less like Kent are 54% ATS since 2005. Kent is 4-2 ATS away while EMU is 1-3 ATS at home. We've also seen smart money hit the over, driving the total up from 65 to 67.5. The over is 6-5 in Kent games and 7-2-2 in EMU games. 

Noon ET: Virginia Tech (8-3, ranked 24th) at Virginia (8-3)

The winner of this game wins the ACC Coastal division title. Virginia Tech is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won three in a row and six of their last seven. The Hokies have dominated this head-to-head series winning the last 15 in a row against in-state rival Virginia. The Cavs have also won three in a row. These teams are nearly identical in terms of points for (VT 31, UVA 33.18) and points against (VT 22.27, UVA 22.91). This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the ranked Hokies against the unranked Cavs (roughly three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with Virginia Tech. This lopsided action moved the line up to the key number of 3. That's when sharps made their move and got down hard on the Cavs plus 3, causing the line to fall back down to 2.5. Essentially we are looking at a sharp line freeze or reverse line move on Virginia. We've also seen some smart money hit the under, causing the total to drop from 48 to 47. 

 

More Friday sharp action

Central Michigan -9.5 to -11 vs Toledo

Ball State -2.5 to -3.5 vs Miami Ohio

Washington State-Washington Under 64 to 63

TCU -12.5 to -13.5 vs West Virginia

West Virginia-TCU Under 45.5 to 43.5

Boise State -12 to -14.5 at Colorado State

South Alabama plus 12.5 to plus 11.5 vs Arkansas State

South Florida-Central Florida Under 63.5 to 62.5

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