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Wentz Injury Fallout: Target Titans? Plus Thursday MLB Sharp Report

August 5, 2021 12:31 AM

The Indianapolis Colts entered this offseason with a loaded roster and high expectations. But over the past week, Indianapolis has been hit with a string of back breaks. First, Head Coach Frank Reich tested positive for COVID. Then a pair of foot injuries knocked out quarterback Carson Wentz and star lineman Quenton Nelson for the next 5-12 weeks. Following the news, the Colts saw their win total shift from 9.5 (over -150) to 9 (under -130). The Colts moved from a + 100 favorite to win the AFC South to now a + 190 dog. In Week 1, the Colts have moved from -3 to + 3 against the Seahawks. 

The biggest beneficiary of the Colts misfortune is likely the Tennessee Titans, who are entering Year 4 under Head Coach Mike Vrabel. So far, Vrabel has gone 9-7, 9-7 and then 11-5 last season, his best yet. This year's win total was originally set at 9 with the over juiced to -140, signaling another successful campaign. Following the Wentz news, the Titans' win total is now 9 juiced over at -160. If Titans action continues to pour in, this number might tick up to 9.5, which means you may want to jump on it quick before the value evaporates. Tennessee has shifted from a + 110 dog to win the division to now a -130 favorite. 

The Titans boast the most continuity and talent on offense of any team in the division, led by quarterback Ryan Tanehill, running back Derrick Henry and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Tennessee can also feast on the Jaguars (6.5 win total) and Texans (4 win total). Unless the Colts can coax Philip Rivers out of retirement and back under center, this looks to be the Titans' division to win. 

For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update and co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action leading up to the Draft. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a pair of MLB games today...

7:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (41-67) at Cincinnati Reds (57-51)

These division rivals are at opposite ends of the NL Central standings. Pittsburgh is dead last, a whopping 23.5-games back of the first place Brewers. The Pirates are 3-7 over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Reds are in second place, just 7.5-games back. The Reds are just 4-games back of the second Wild Card spot. Cincinnati is 6-4 over their last ten games. In tonight's series opener, Pittsburgh sends out righty Wil Crowe (3-5, 5.40 ERA) and Cincinnati rebuttals with veteran righty Sonny Gray (3-6, 4.26 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a hefty -215 home favorite and the Pirates a + 195 road dog. Sharps don't seem to be scared off by the big chalk, steaming Cincinnati up from -215 to -230. Home favorites -200 or more are 107-44 (71%) this season. If they're coming off a win, like the Reds are here, they improve to 86-34 (72%). Cincinnati is 32-24 as a favorite. The Pirates are 36-63 as a dog. Cincinnati will look to outslug the Pirates. The Reds are hitting .252, which is 6th best in MLB. The Pirates are hitting .236, which ranks 18th. The Reds are 5-1 against the Pirates this season. 

8:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (54-54) at St. Louis Cardinals (53-54)

The Braves have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 6-1 as -130 road favorites and winning against yesterday 7-4 as -108 road favorites. Don't look now but Atlanta has now won three of their last four and only trail the first place Mets by 2.5-games. The Braves are + 275 to win the NL East at BetMGM. In tonight's series finale, Atlanta starts righty Touki Toussaint (1-2, 4.76 ERA) and St. Louis counters with lefty Wade LeBlanc (0-1, 3.15 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides listed at -105. The public is split, but respected money has sided with Atlanta to complete the sweep, driving the Braves up from -105 to -115. Short road favorites -150 or less coming off a win are 120-85 (59%) this season, producing roughly + 12 units won. Atlanta will rely on their bats in this one. The Braves, who added sluggers Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario at the deadline, are hitting .243, which ranks 13th in MLB. The Cardinals are hitting .234, which ranks 22nd. Atlanta is 5-1 against St. Louis this season. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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