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Weingarten: My World Series Game 5 best bets

October 31, 2021 03:58 PM

World Series Game 5 Bets

Props Bets

The Braves need to finish off the Astros tonight and not let the World Series go back to Houston. Game 1 starter Framber Valdez returns to the mound tonight for Game 5 and I have two prop bets:

Jorge Soler anytime home run 4/1 (DraftKings) .5x unit

Jorge Soler 1st home run 13/1 (DraftKings) .5x unit

I split these bets. I think 4/1 is too high for Soler anytime home run and Circa agrees, they priced it Yes + 325/No -400. 

As for the 1st home run prop, 13/1 is way too high and again Circa agrees, they priced it + 850. Soler is batting leadoff against the same sinkerball throwing pitcher (Framber Valdez) that he led off Game 1 with a home run against. 

As far as the 1st inning goes, I see -115 at Circa and -111 at Bookmaker for Yes score and neither of those are good enough for me to bet. 

World Series MVP

Draftkings Odds

Freeman + 650

Rosario + 650

Soler + 700

Riley + 900

Duvall + 1100

D’Arnaud + 1100

Albies + 1300

According to DraftKings Freddie Freeman and Eddie Rosario currently have similar chances to win MVP as Jorge Soler. I don’t think that’s right. Freddie Freeman is a great player but he has had 4 hits and 2 RBIs so far in the World Series. Freeman with 4 hits and 4 total bases and 3 RBIs doesn’t really do anything for me.

Eddie Rosario has 5 hits and 3 runs and a slightly better 7 total bases. Rosario also had a great run saving catch in Game 4 that came after Jorge Soler’s home run. Austin Riley has 5 hits, no runs, 3 RBIs, and 7 total bases in the World Series.

Rosario, Riley and Freeman are all important players but absent of giving the MVP to the entire Braves bullpen the World Series MVP favorite should be Jorge Soler. 

Jorge Soler 4 hits in the World Series, 2 runs, 9 total bases, 3 RBIs and two home runs. Soler’s first home run was in the 1st inning of Game 1 in Houston to start the Braves off with a 1-0 lead, and his 2nd home run was the game winning pinch hit home run late in Game 4. The Braves aren’t playing to clinch the World Series in Game 5 without Jorge Soler and he should be the MVP favorite, if the Braves win Game 5, he will have a very good shot at being the World Series MVP.  

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