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Weingarten: My World Series best bets

October 26, 2021 03:58 PM

World Series Bets

Game 1 Props

Jorge Soler to hit a home run + 400 at DraftKings. Soler is back from COVID and batting leadoff for the Braves. He’ll be the DH on the road in Houston and I think + 400 is a good price for him as he’ll likely get at least 4 at bats tonight. 

At 93.3 mph Soler had the 5th highest exit velocity as a leadoff hitter in 2021, behind only Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna and Jesse Winker. In the playoffs this season for the Braves Soler is averaging 107.7 MPH exit velocity. 

1st inning yes score + 100. The highest price I’ve seen so far is + 109 which I also bet. I’d play it to -105 but nothing past that. The longer you wait until post time the best price you will get on the 1st inning yes score. Casual bettors watching the World Series are more likely to bet no score at any number. 

MVP Bets

Jorge Soler 35/1. See above. He’s batting leadoff and he’s 35/1 at DraftKings, I even saw some 40/1 offshore. He has home run power and will get a lot of at bats if he’s consistently batting leadoff in the Series. I’ll take 35/1 here and reassess after the first two games in Houston.

For the Astros side I don’t think there’s much value on Yordan Alvarez at 10/1, I think Carlos Correa is a better bet at 11/1 and I personally bet Luis Garcia at 25/1 and 30/1.  Relievers have pitched 57% of the Astros innings in the playoffs and that’s unsustainable and not a recipe to win in the World Series. Luis Garcia is going to start Game 3 in Atlanta and I think he’d probably be the AL Rookie of the Year if the voting was done after the ALCS where he pitched 5.2 scoreless innings with 1 hit and 1 walk and 7 strikeouts in Game 6 to send the Astros back to the World Series. Garcia is throwing as hard as he has all season, he threw 7 pitches above 97 mph vs. the Red Sox in Game 6 of the ALCS after only hitting 97 mph once during the regular season. With Garcia pitching game 3 he would line up to pitch again in a potential Game 6 or 7 and I’d be happy to see him on the mound in a winner take all game while holding a 30/1 MVP ticket. 

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