Weingarten: My latest NFL futures bets, Week 3 plays

September 25, 2022 08:48 AM
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I’m back with more NFL futures and some Week 3 plays. 

I’ll be releasing NFL futures and weekly picks every week of the season in this space.

Week 2 recap: Buccaneers defeat Saints 20-10. -$500 on Saints ML.

Running total: $705

Starting to think my Buccaneers worst-record bet is drawing dead already. The Saints-Bucs game was tied at 3 entering the fourth quarter, with the live total at 17.5. A 24-point quarter ensued with the Bucs doing most of the scoring. 

MVP

Aaron Rodgers at 25-1 and Trevor Lawrence at 40-1 (both at DraftKings) have my attention. I don’t think there’s any reason to bet Tua Tagovailoa at 20-1. If you didn’t already bet Tua at a better number, you missed the boat. Same with Jalen Hurts. I don’t think there are any non-quarterbacks I’d take unless it’s a huge number. Stefon Diggs, who has 20 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns, is only 75-1 at DraftKings. I’d need at least 200-1 to take a wide receiver again, and any scenario where Diggs is an MVP candidate likely means Josh Allen would be the winner.

Offensive Player of the Year 

Reigning OPOY Cooper Kupp has 24 receptions, 236 yards and two touchdowns after two games. Kupp will likely see well over 200 targets, probably closer to 250, and he’ll have a real shot at 2,000 receiving yards. That would make him a front-runner for a second consecutive OPOY award. 

I am more interested in Diggs for OPOY. The Bills look unstoppable after two weeks, and Diggs is leading the NFL in touchdowns. I bet some Stefon Diggs OPOY (9-1) at DraftKings this week.

I also bet Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards (+ 600) and Stefon Diggs Most Receiving Yards (+ 850), both at DraftKings as well. 

And since I don’t see Diggs and the Bills slowing down anytime soon, I also bet Stefon Diggs Most Receiving Touchdowns (+ 700)

As for the most receptions market, I took the favorite at DraftKings, Cooper Kupp Most Receptions (4-1). Kupp already has the lead, and he leads the NFL in targets. He is the most important part of the Rams offense and he’ll continue to get 10+ targets a game. While I rarely take favorites, I am happy to do it here.

To recap (risking $500 each):

— Stefon Diggs OPOY 9-1

— Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards 6-1

— Stefon Diggs Most Receiving Yards + 850

— Stefon Diggs Most Touchdowns + 700

— Cooper Kupp Most Receptions + 400

Most Sacks

Last week, I bet Khalil Mack at 13-1 and he had half a sack against the Chiefs last week. HIs number has remained the same. 

DraftKings has Micah Parsons 10-1 for Most Sacks, tied with Nick Bosa and Danielle Hunter for the second-lowest odds behind Myles Garrett. At 10-1, I like it enough to bet $1,000 on it. When Parsons is on the field, he is the best player on either side of the ball. At 10-1, you get more than double his current DPOY price (currently the 4-1 favorite). I don’t hate Parsons for DPOY, but 10-1 for most sacks is better value right now than 4-1 for DPOY. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Drake London stood out the most to me in person Sunday at the Rams game, where he caught eight passes for 86 yards and scored a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. So it’s no surprise to see he’s the highest-graded rookie by PFF after two weeks. 

None of the rookie wide receivers have really separated themselves yet, but we’ve seen good things out of London, Jahan Dotson, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. No bets for me here this week. I’m tempted to bet London, but for now I’m going to look for weekly touchdown props on any rookie WRs I want to bet.

Coach of the Year

I liked Pete Carroll at 40-1 last week, and I’d make another small bet on him this week at 60-1. This is a proxy bet on the Seahawks making the playoffs. 

I think Sean McDermott Coach of the Year at 18-1 at Draftkings is also a generous price. You can make cases for Nick Sirianni or Brian Daboll or Dan Campbell, but it might not matter if the Bills go 15-2. I am trying to get some Bills exposure this week via Diggs and McDermott futures instead of betting them to win the AFC or the Super Bowl at lower odds. 

Make/Miss Playoffs

A couple more additions to the portfolio: Bengals No Playoffs (-180) and Bengals Fewest Wins 50-1.

Week 3 Picks

Jets + 4.5 (-110) vs. Bengals

Joe Burrow is getting hit too much because the Bengals didn’t do enough to improve their offensive line after making the Super Bowl last season. Starting 0-2 is disastrous for any team, but it’s compounded for the Bengals, who must travel to New York this weekend for their second road game in two weeks. After a home game next week, the Bengals have back-to-back road trips to Baltimore and New Orleans, which will make it four road games in five weeks. That type of punishment is unsustainable, especially when your quarterback is getting sacked seven times a game. 

Packers + 2 (-110) at Buccaneers 

Continuing my never-ending saga of betting against Tom Brady, I will take the younger quarterback in this game and back the Packers. I am interested to see how the Packers defense matches up. With Mike Evans out, the Packers secondary shouldn’t have any excuses. The Saints did a great job of shutting down the Bucs for three quarters, then Marcus Lattimore was ejected and the team unraveled from there. I think the Packers hand the Bucs their first loss Sunday.

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