We’re back at it with some more NFL futures and some Week 2 plays. I’ll be releasing NFL futures and weekly plays every week of the season in this space.
All bets are risking $500 unless noted.
Week 1 recap: The Steelers beat the Bengals in OT. $500 at + 241 = $1,205
Offensive Player of the Year — Taysom Hill (100-1 at DraftKings)
Saints ML vs. Buccaneers (+ 115 at Circa)
Officially listed as a tight end, Taysom Hill entered last week’s game at quarterback on the Saints’ second possession and ran 57 yards on third-and-1. He rushed for an 11-yard touchdown a couple plays later.
I don’t think a quarterback change is imminent in New Orleans, but I do think the Saints will continue to find ways to keep Hill involved. At 100-1, Hill’s Offensive Player of the Year odds are priced the same as his MVP odds despite OPOY being a much more realistic award for him to contend for. Hill led the Saints in rushing yards to go along with his touchdown in Week 1.
Along with the Hill OPOY future, I bet the Saints to beat the Bucs and Tom Brady on Sunday. I thought Brady looked fine on “Sunday Night Football,” but the Saints are a step up defensively from the Cowboys.
Coach of the Year — Pete Carroll (40-1 at Draftkings)
Great win for the Seahawks on “Monday Night Football” in a game that was personal for both Pete Carroll and new Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. In trading Wilson this offseason, a move that was a long time coming, Carroll reaffirmed his belief that no one player is bigger than the team.
Carroll COY at 40-1 is probably a better way to play the Seahawks than betting them to make the playoffs at + 450. Getting a playoff-level performance out of Geno Smith should warrant serious COY consideration for Carroll.
Week 2 Lowest Scoring Team — 49ers (90-1 at Draftkings)
It’s fine to disregard most of the data from Trey Lance’s Week 1 performance in the slop in Chicago. Week 2 at home against a Seahawks defense that was on the field for 66 plays Monday night will present Lance the opportunity to rewrite the current headlines.
Another poor performance is not out of the question, though. If the Seahawks defense has another high-intensity game in them, they could steal a division win on the road, and a low-scoring game wouldn’t surprise me.
At 90-1, this 49ers prop is tied for the second-highest odds despite a game total of just 42 points. If the Seahawks win a low-scoring game, 90-1 is live.
Most Sacks — Khalil Mack (13-1 at Fanduel)
Defensive Player of the Year — Khalil Mack (25-1 Fanduel)
Khalil Mack, the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year and a six-time Pro Bowler, had three sacks in Week 1, and the combination of Mack and Joey Bosa produced a total of 4.5.
While Aaron Donald has had a stranglehold on the DPOY award of late, winning it three of the last five seasons, last year’s DPOY T.J. Watt is out with a torn pectoral muscle, likely long enough to eliminate him from the DPOY race.
Myles Garrett, Von Miller, the Bosa brothers (Joey and Nick), Micah Parsons and Za’Darius Smith are all names that will appear as contenders, but I think Mack has enough left at 31 to produce another DPOY-level season and help the Chargers to a long playoff run.
Mack hasn’t had double-digit sacks since 2018, but he also hasn’t played with a defense as talented as this one on any of his previous teams in Oakland or Chicago.