I broke down some of the common stats of MLB home run leaders in the Statcast era (since 2015) below. Although I included the 2020 short season, I’m not going to focus much on that data, (I’m OK if you just want to throw 2020 out). This year I am using Statcast numbers more than I have in the past to bet home run leaders. I am mostly looking at average exit velocity, Max EV, launch angle degree, barrel% and HardHit%. All the Statcast data is available at Fangraphs.
Using recent Statcast data, here are eight players I bet to lead MLB in home runs in 2022:
Yordan Alvarez 40/1 and 20/1
Alvarez is one of the best pure power hitters in baseball -- and one of my favorite players. His 2021 Statcast numbers are in line with what I am looking for out of previous winners: 93.2 average exit velocity, 116.4 Max EV, 14.1-degree launch angle, 15.9% barrel rate and a 54.2% hard hit rate. He does everything all the previous winners have done and he’s hitting cleanup on what should be a playoff-bound Astros team. Alvarez checks every box off for what I’m looking for in a home run leader.