Week 9 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

November 7, 2021 06:30 AM
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Week 9 is upon us, and with it, we have more NFL betting trends to discuss. Last week went the way of the underdogs, as they went 10-5 ATS with seven dogs winning outright. The game total count was essentially an even split, with seven games hitting the over and eight hitting the under. This week, four teams are on a bye - the Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Washington.

With 14 games on the docket for Week 9, let’s dive right into the action.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 45.5)

The Colts will look to climb closer to .500 and hope to give themselves a chance to gain a game on the Titans in the AFC South with this heavily-favored spot on Thursday Night Football against the Jets. Indianapolis is 3-5 SU on the season, but 5-3 ATS, so they’ve been kinder to bettors than they’ve been to themselves.

The Jets won for the second time this season, knocking off the Bengals in stunning upset fashion last week to improve to 2-5. The Jets are also 2-5 ATS, with both covers coming in their outright wins. The Over is 5-3 for the Colts and 4-3 for the Jets.

Primetime underdogs are 17-7 ATS to this point, so we’ll see if the Jets can follow through with that trend.

Trends:

  • Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.
  • Jets are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games following an ATS win.
  • Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Jets are 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Jets’ previous four games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Jets’ last four games as an underdog.
  • Jets are 4-2 SU in their previous six games against Indianapolis.

 

  • Colts are 3-6 SU in their last nine games.
  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games overall.
  • Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Colts are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite.
  • Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.

More Jets and Colts Trends 

 

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-6.5, 46)

This line dropped on Thursday morning with the announcement that Tyrod Taylor would return and be the starting quarterback for the visiting Texans in this battle of 1-7 teams. The Texans are 4-4 ATS, so they’ve been decent in that department, while the Dolphins are just 2-6 against the number.

Both teams have split their totals down the middle at 4-4. The Texans were expected to be bad, but the Dolphins were not expected to be anywhere near this bad and now their favorite role has dwindled with Taylor’s return.

Trends:

  • Texans are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road.
  • Texans are 8-1 SU in their previous nine games against Miami.
  • Texans are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Texans' previous six games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 5-1 in Texans' last six road games.

 

  • Dolphins are 0-7 SU in their previous seven games.
  • Dolphins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games as a favorite.
  • Dolphins are 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-2 in Dolphins' last seven games as a home favorite.

More Texans and Dolphins Trends 

 

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 49.5)

How ‘bout them Cowboys? A huge win for Dallas to improve to 6-1 last week came with backup QB Cooper Rush, so Dak Prescott was able to get some rest and will return here as a big favorite against the Broncos. The Cowboys are the only perfect ATS team in the NFL at 7-0.

The Broncos are just 4-4 after starting the season 3-0. They are 4-3-1 ATS on the campaign, but most notably 6-2 to the Under. The Cowboys are 5-2 to the Over, so we have two very different teams in this matchup.

Trends:

  • Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Broncos are 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Broncos are 1-4 SU in their previous five games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos’ last five road games.
  • Under is 5-2 in Broncos' previous seven against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Cowboys are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
  • Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their previous six games following an ATS win.
  • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
  • Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games as a favorite.
  • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cowboys’ previous four games as a favorite.

More Broncos and Cowboys Trends 

 

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 49.5)

Teams coming off of the bye are just 3-7 ATS this season. The Vikings were one of those teams that lost, as they faced the Cowboys in a battle of post-bye week teams last Sunday. Baltimore is coming off of the bye this week, so we’ll see how the Ravens fare.

The Vikings are 3-4 SU and ATS on the season and seem to like that symmetry by being 3-4 on their totals as well, with four games going Under. The Ravens are 5-2 SU, but just 3-4 ATS, as they’ve won, but failed to cover in a couple of games. The Over is 4-3 for Baltimore this season.

Trends:

  • Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their previous nine games following an ATS loss.
  • Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in the Vikings' previous five road games.

 

  • Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • Ravens are 6-1 SU in their previous seven games at home.
  • Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 6-2 in Ravens' previous eight games as a home favorite.

More Vikings and Ravens Trends 

 

New England Patriots (-3.5, 41.5) at Carolina Panthers

A defensive struggle seems to be the expectation in Charlotte this week and you can understand why. The Panthers are 6-2 to the Under this season with a 4-4 SU and ATS record. New England is 4-4 across the board, with a SU and ATS mark that looks the same and four Overs and four Unders.

The Patriots are gaining some steam here, though, and find themselves a road favorite of more than a field goal, something we saw a lot with Tom Brady, but has been a rarity since.

Trends:

  • Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Carolina.
  • Patriots are 2-9-1 ATS in their previous 12 games following an ATS win.
  • Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Patriots' previous four games overall.

 

  • Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
  • Panthers are 4-11-1 ATS in their previous 16 home games.
  • Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Under is 9-2 in the Panthers' previous 11 games overall.
  • Under is 8-2 in the Panthers' last 10 games following a SU win.

More Patriots and Panthers Trends 

 

Buffalo Bills (-14.5, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bills find themselves a big favorite for the second straight week, this time on the road against the Jaguars. Buffalo has been in some hefty favorite roles this season, but has still managed to go 5-2 ATS along with a 5-2 SU record. The Bills defense has been enough to balance the offense on totals, with a mark of 4-3 to the Under.

The Jaguars are just 1-6 straight up and they’ve yet to win a game in North America this season. Their lone win came across the pond in London against the Dolphins. The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS on the season and have played five Unders in seven games.

Trends:

  • Bills are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • Bills are 4-2 SU in their previous six games against the Jaguars.
  • Bills are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • Over is 9-3 in the Bills’ previous 12 games on the road.

 

  • Jaguars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Jaguars are 1-10 SU in their previous 11 games at home.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven games against Buffalo.

More Bills and Jaguars Trends 

 

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47.5)

The first Battle of Ohio for this season will be on the banks of the river instead of the lake, as the Browns and Bengals meet in Cincinnati. Cleveland is down to 4-4 SU after last week’s loss to the Steelers and sits at 3-4-1 ATS on the year. The Browns have split their totals down the middle in eight games.

Cincinnati is 5-3 SU after last week’s stunning loss to the Jets. The Bengals are 4-3-1 ATS and 5-3 to the Under to this point. This will definitely be a line to watch as kickoff approaches.

Trends:

  • Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • Browns are 5-1 SU in their previous six games against the Bengals.
  • Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 7-1 in Browns' previous eight against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Browns' last six games as an underdog.

 

  • Bengals are 4-2 SU in their previous six games.
  • Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing as the favorite.
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games following a SU loss.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bengals’ last seven home games.

More Browns and Bengals Trends 

 

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 46.5) at New York Giants

The Raiders are going through yet another tough emotional week prior to playing a game, but will have to find a way to focus for the cross-country trip to take on the Giants. Las Vegas is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS this season. The Raiders are also 4-3 to the Over.

The Giants are just 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS on the season. They’ve played better from a statistical standpoint than what we’ve seen in the past, but it hasn’t translated to wins. New York is 4-3-1 to the Under to this point, so the books have had a good handle on their totals.

Trends:

  • Raiders are 6-2 SU in their last eight games.
  • Raiders are 2-6-1 ATS in their previous nine games as a road favorite.
  • Raiders are 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Raiders' previous four against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Raiders' last five games as a favorite.
  • Over is 4-1 in Raiders' previous five games as a road favorite.

 

  • Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
  • Giants are 0-5 ATS in their previous five home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 5-0 in Giants’ last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Giants’ previous seven games as a home underdog.
  • Under is 7-0-1 in Giants’ last eight home games.

More Raiders and Giants Trends 

 

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6, 42.5)

The Saints begin life without Jameis Winston this week as they host the Falcons. New Orleans was 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS with Winston at the helm, but his knee injury will keep him sidelined for the rest of the season, so it becomes the Taysom Hill show in the Big Easy. The Saints were 4-3 to the Under with Winston.

The Falcons are 3-4 SU and ATS on the season, but have played better of late for first-year head coach Art Smith. The Falcons are 4-3 to the Over on the season to this point.

Trends:

  • Falcons are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games.
  • Falcons are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games on the road.
  • Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NFC South.
  • Under is 5-2 in Falcons' previous seven games as a road underdog.

 

  • Saints are 4-1 SU in their last five games.
  • Saints are 11-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC South.
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite.
  • Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 5-2 in Saints' previous seven games as a favorite.
  • Under is 7-3 in Saints’ last 10 games overall.

More Falcons and Saints Trends 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 50) at Philadelphia Eagles

This has been one of the most notable line moves of the week, as Eagles money has slowly, but surely dropped this line down after opening -3. The Chargers were a real disappointment last week in the loss to the Patriots to fall to 4-3 SU and ATS. They are another one of the teams that failed to cover off the bye.

The Eagles are 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. A win here would at least give them an outside shot at being part of the playoff discussion, especially with a seventh team in the playoffs these days. The Chargers are 5-2 to the Under and the Eagles have gone 4-4 with regards to totals thus far.

Trends:

  • Chargers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
  • Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on the road.
  • Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Eagles.
  • Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite.
  • Chargers are 4-10-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Chargers’ last six games as a road favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in Chargers' previous seven games overall.

 

  • Eagles are 1-5 SU in their last six games at home.
  • Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games as a home underdog.
  • Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Eagles' last five games following a SU win.

More Chargers vs. Eagles Trends 

 

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 48)

This game certainly took on a much different look with the announcement that Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and was apparently unvaccinated. Jordan Love makes his first NFL start for the Packers, who are 7-1 SU to start the season with a strong 6-1-1 ATS mark.

The Chiefs are still not covering games at a high rate, as they fell to 2-6 ATS with a three-point win as a double-digit favorite against the Giants last week. At least they did win the game to improve to .500 at 4-4. The Chiefs are also 4-4 in the totals department this season, while the Packers have played six Unders in eight games.

Trends:

  • Packers are 7-0 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Packers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • Packers are 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games against Kansas City.
  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
  • Packers are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 6-1 in Packers' last seven against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Packers' previous six games as a road underdog.

 

  • Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games this season.
  • Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
  • Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their previous four home games.
  • Over is 5-2 in Chiefs' last seven games following SU win.

More Packers vs. Chiefs Trends 

 

Arizona Cardinals (PK, 46) at San Francisco 49ers

Concerning reports about the status of Kyler Murray have steadily pushed this line down to the point where it is now lined at a pick-em. It seems likelier by the day that we will see Colt McCoy here. The Cardinals are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, so they’ve been a great bet this season, but confidence in Colt doesn’t seem to be super high.

The 49ers are a disappointing team this season at 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS, but the schedule does lighten up a little bit moving forward. San Francisco is 4-3 to the Over and Arizona is 5-3 to the Under if you’re interested in the total of 46 here.

Trends:

  • Cardinals are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Cardinals are 6-1-1 ATS in their previous eight games against the 49ers.
  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Cardinals' last four games following an ATS loss.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Cardinals' last four games as a favorite.

 

  • 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.
  • Over is 5-0 in the 49ers' last five games following an ATS win.
  • Over is 5-1 in 49ers' last six games following a SU win.

More Cardinals and 49ers Trends

 

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 54)

This is another game greatly affected by injuries, as the Titans lost Derrick Henry for an indefinite period of time to a foot injury. With Henry out, the line ballooned up to Rams -7.5 after being in the 6.5 range prior to the announcement. Tennessee is 6-2 SU and ATS on the season, so the Titans have been very kind to bettors.

The Rams are 7-1 SU, as they’ve played one of the worst schedules in the NFL, especially of late. The lone loss came against the Cardinals. Los Angeles is just 4-4 ATS on the season, but has faced double-digit spreads multiple times. The Over is 5-3 for Tennessee and 5-2-1 for the Rams heading into this one.

Trends:

  • Titans are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
  • Titans are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Titans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against the Rams.
  • Titans are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games as an underdog.
  • Over is 6-0 in Titans' last six games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 10-1 in Titans' previous 11 road games.

 

  • Rams are 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Rams' last four against a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 13-3 in Rams' previous 16 games as a home favorite.

More Titans and Rams Trends 

 

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 40)

Week 9 ends with Monday Night Football in the Steel City between Chicago and Pittsburgh. This is a big number with a low total, but the confidence level in the 3-5 Bears isn’t all that high. Chicago is also 3-5 ATS, but it is worth noting that the Under is 6-2 and a low-scoring environment is expected here.

The Steelers are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS on the season. They are 5-2 to the Under themselves, so the low total of 40 seems to make a ton of sense in this primetime spot.

Trends:

  • Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Bears are 3-7 SU in their previous 10 games.
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Steelers.
  • Bears are 6-3 SU in their previous nine games against the Steelers.
  • Bears are 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games as an underdog.
  • Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bears' previous six Monday games.

 

  • Steelers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games at home.
  • Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 7-1-1 in Steelers' previous nine home games against a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 6-1 in Steelers' last seven games overall.
  • Under is 6-1-1 in Steelers' previous eight games as a home favorite.

More Bears and Steelers Trends

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