Week 8 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

October 28, 2021 06:30 PM
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The NFL season keeps chugging and we go back to 15 games this week with only two teams on byes. Action begins on Thursday with the watered-down Packers vs. Cardinals matchup that has been impacted by injuries and COVID. We’ll finish up with a big spread on Monday night with the Chiefs hosting the Giants.

In between, we’ll have 13 Sunday games and you can use this assortment of betting trends as part of your handicapping process for Week 8.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 50.5)

The Packers will be missing Davante Adams and a cast of other players on both sides of the ball for the short-week game against the Cardinals. Green Bay was around a field goal underdog when the line opened, but we’ve seen major adjustments to both the side and total in light of the Packers’ absences.

Arizona is a perfect 7-0 this season and now a big favorite to move to 8-0. The Cardinals are also 6-1 ATS, while the Packers have also been good to bettors going 5-1-1 to the over. The Packers are 5-2 to the Under, while the Cardinals are 4-3 to the Under.

Trends:

  • The Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games
  • Green Bay is 19-4-2 ATS in the last 25 games against a team averaging 1.3 or fewer turnovers per game
  • The Packers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 against a rush defense allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry
  • The Over is 16-3 in Green Bay’s last 19 games on a winning streak of six or more games
  • The Over is 19-6 in Green Bay’s last 25 games against a team on short rest

 

  • The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC North
  • Arizona is 9-15-1 ATS in the last 25 games on short rest
  • The Cardinals are 10-15 ATS in their last 25 as a favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Under is 20-14 in the last 34 home games for Arizona against a team with a winning record
  • The Over is 5-2 in Arizona’s last seven home games against a team traveling at least 1,000 miles

More Packers and Cardinals Trends

 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-14, 49.5)

The Bills will look to improve to 5-2 straight up and against the spread here on some extra rest coming off of the bye week. The Dolphins won their opening game against the Patriots, but have since dropped six straight and have also lost five of six against the spread.

Miami is 4-3 to the Over, while Buffalo has split six games with three Overs and three Unders to this point. The Bills have covered six of the last nine head-to-head meetings.

Trends:

  • The Dolphins are 12-19 ATS in their last 31 road games against an opponent off a loss
  • Miami is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against the AFC East
  • The Dolphins are 29-36-2 ATS in the last 67 games playing a team for the second time in a season
  • Miami is 31-18 to the Under in road games with a total of 45 or higher
  • The Over is 15-10 in Miami’s last 25 as an underdog

 

  • The Bills are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against an opponent traveling at least 1,000 miles
  • Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Sunday games
  • The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 10 or more points
  • The Over is 10-0 in Buffalo’s last 10 games against an opponent on a five or more game losing streak
  • The Over is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last 10 games as a home favorite of more than a touchdown

More Dolphins and Bills Trends

 

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 46)

These two teams started their seasons in very different ways, but things have certainly changed. The Panthers started 3-0 and have lost four in a row to fall to 3-4. The Falcons are up to .500 after last week’s win against the Dolphins and look to have turned a corner.

Carolina is 3-4 ATS as well and Atlanta has an identical ATS record to its SU record at 3-3. The Falcons have played four Overs against two Unders, while the Panthers are 5-2 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Carolina is 4-9-1 ATS in road games against the Falcons with revenge
  • The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against NFC opponents
  • Carolina is 5-9-1 ATS in the last 15 games while on a three or more game losing streak
  • The Over is 15-10 in Carolina’s last 25 road games in October
  • The Over is 58-40-2 in Carolina’s last 100 games as a road underdog

 

  • Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 against an opponent coming off a conference loss
  • The Falcons are just 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 home October games
  • The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Carolina
  • The Over is 9-1 in Atlanta’s last 10 games against a team averaging fewer than 3.9 rushing yards per attempt
  • The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 games against Carolina

More Panthers and Falcons Trends

 

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 48) at Detroit Lions

The Eagles and Lions battle it out in a game where both teams badly need a win. Detroit enters 0-7 SU, but 4-3 ATS, so the Fightin’ Dan Campbells have at least gotten to the window, even though they haven’t gotten to Victory Lane. The Lions are 5-2 to the Under thus far.

Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS on the season. The Eagles have fallen on hard times and may have an emerging quarterback controversy to deal with in the near future. Four of Philly’s seven games have gone Under.

Trends:

  • The Eagles are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team allowing more than 26.5 PPG
  • Philadelphia is 5-20 ATS in the last 25 games overall against a team allowing more than 24.5 PPG
  • The Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 games against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • The Over is 11-2-2 in the last 15 road games for the Eagles against a team with a .300 or lower win percentage
  • The Under is 6-1 in Philadelphia’s last seven road games with head referee Tony Corrente

 

  • The Lions are 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games against the NFC East
  • Detroit is 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • The Lions are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games prior to the bye
  • The Over is 55-34-1 in Detroit’s last 90 games while on a losing streak of three or more
  • The Over is 10-5 in Detroit’s last 15 games against a team with a losing record

More Eagles and Lions Trends

 

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 50.5)

The favorite role has flopped around in this game between the Titans and the Colts. Indianapolis was the favorite on the lookahead line, but then Tennessee was favored on Sunday night when lines reopened. The Colts are now the small one-point favorite, but that could change as the week rolls along.

Both teams are 5-2 ATS, but the Titans are also 5-2 SU. Indianapolis is just 3-4 SU on the road. Both teams are 4-3 to the Over going into this AFC South clash.

Trends:

  • Tennessee is 6-9 ATS in the last 15 games after a blowout win by 20 or more points
  • The Titans are 26-38-2 ATS in their last 66 games against a team with a losing record
  • Tennessee is 9-15-1 ATS in the last 25 games against the Colts
  • The Under is 8-5 in Tennessee’s last 13 visits to Indy
  • The Over is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven games when facing an opponent for the second time in a season

 

  • The Colts are 20-4-1 ATS in their last 25 games against a team averaging more than 6.8 yards per pass attempt
  • The Colts are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games against an opponent on a winning streak of three or more
  • Indianapolis is 17-7-1 ATS in the last 25 against a team scoring 24 or more PPG
  • The Over is 7-0 in Indy’s last seven against a team scoring 24 or more PPG
  • The Over is 7-0 in Indy’s last seven against teams with a winning record

More Titans and Colts Trends

 

Los Angeles Rams (-15, 47.5) at Houston Texans

It would appear to be another painful Sunday for the Texans, who are winless since beating the Jaguars in Week 1. Houston is now 1-6 on the season and 3-4 ATS through seven games. The Rams are the inverse, with a 6-1 SU record and a 4-3 mark ATS.

This is another big number for the Texans, who are a double-digit dog for the second straight week. The Rams are also a double-digit favorite for the second straight week. We’ll see if they do better this time around. The Rams are 4-2-1 to the Over and the Texans are 4-3 to the Under.

Trends:

  • The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against teams rushing for 3.8 or fewer yards per carry
  • Los Angeles is 30-20 ATS in the last 50 games
  • The Rams are also 16-9 ATS in their last 25 road games
  • The Over is 5-1-1 in the Rams’ last seven games after a win
  • The Over is 9-5-1 in LA’s last 15 road games

 

  • The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent outscoring teams by 6.0 or more PPG
  • Houston is 4-21 ATS in the last 25 games against an opponent outscoring teams by 8.0 or more PPG
  • Houston is 10-26-2 ATS in the last 38 games against a team scoring 27 or more PPG
  • The Over is 11-4 in Houston’s last 15 games on a losing streak of three or more games
  • The Under is 11-4 in Houston’s last 15 off of a blowout loss by 20 or more points

More Rams and Texans Trends

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5, 42.5) at New York Jets

The Bengals are a massive road favorite here and this is uncharted territory for Cincinnati, who hasn’t been this big of a road favorite since before the Y2K scare. Cincinnati is 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS on the season.

The Jets are not having a good season and will send Mike White and/or Joe Flacco out there this week in hopes of improving upon a 1-5 SU and ATS record. We’ll see if they can do it. The Jets have split their totals three and three, while the Bengals are 5-2 to the Under.

Trends:

  • The Bengals are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games right after playing Baltimore
  • Cincinnati is 11-8 ATS on the road under Zac Taylor
  • The Bengals are 15-9-2 ATS in their last 26 games against teams scoring 18.5 or fewer PPG
  • The Under is 14-9-2 in Cincinnati’s last 25 games after beating an AFC opponent
  • The Under is 18-11-2 in Cincinnati’s last 31 games on the road against a team with a losing record

 

  • The Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent outscoring the opposition by 8.0 or more PPG
  • The Jets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against the AFC North
  • New York is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 home games off of a blowout loss by 20 or more points
  • The Under is 12-3 in the Jets’ last 15 home games against the AFC North
  • The Under is 8-2 in New York’s last 10 games against a team with a .600 or better win percentage

More Bengals and Jets Trends

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 42.5)

The Browns are hoping to do something that they haven’t done since the late ‘80s and that is to beat the Steelers three straight times. They are favored to do so and would improve to 5-3 in the process. Cleveland is 3-3-1 ATS through seven games with that 4-3 SU record.

The Steelers, who won 36 of 44 games against Cleveland prior to the two recent setbacks, are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season. The Browns are 4-3 to the Over, while the Steelers are 4-2 to the Under going into this one.

Trends:

  • Pittsburgh is 35-26-2 ATS in the last 63 road games revenging a loss
  • The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 against a team that just played a Thursday game
  • The Steelers are just 15-22-3 ATS in the last 40 games on extra rest
  • The Over is 6-4 in the last 10 Steelers vs. Browns games
  • The Under is 15-8-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 25 road games against a team off of a win

 

  • The Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC North
  • Cleveland is 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 against the AFC
  • The Browns are 7-15-3 ATS in their last 25 games on extra rest
  • The Under is 8-2 in Cleveland home games against Ben Roethlisberger
  • The Under is 9-1 in Cleveland’s last 10 against an opponent off of the bye

More Steelers and Browns Trends

 

San Francisco 49ers (-4, 39.5) at Chicago Bears

The Bears have all sorts of problems, including a COVID outbreak that has hit head coach Matt Nagy. Chicago is 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS on the season, but it sure doesn’t feel like it with how this team is being viewed in the public eye and the betting markets.

The 49ers are just 2-4 SU and even worse at 1-5 ATS on the season. They are still a road favorite here, though. The Bears are 6-1 to the Under and the Niners have splits their six game totals right down the middle.

Trends:

  • The 49ers are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games against teams scoring 15 or fewer PPG
  • San Francisco is 9-6 ATS in the last 15 road games
  • The 49ers are 30-21-2 ATS in the last 53 games with travel of 1,000 or more miles
  • The Over is 15-9 in SF’s last 24 road games against a team scoring 15 or fewer PPG
  • The Under is 5-2 in the 49ers’ last seven road games

 

  • The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven as an underdog
  • Chicago is also just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 against the NFC
  • The Bears are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games against an opponent allowing more than 23.5 PPG
  • The Under is 5-0 in games started by Justin Fields
  • The last seven October games have gone Under for the Bears

More 49ers and Bears Trends

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 43.5)

Trevor Lawrence vs. Geno Smith won’t be the most popular game on the card, but maybe you can find something in the trends or the matchup for this Jaguars vs. Seahawks contest. The Jags are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS coming off of the win in London over the Dolphins and a bye week.

The Seahawks are 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS on the season. Perhaps this could be an under game, as the Jags are 4-2 to the Under and the Seahawks are 5-2 to the Under.

Trends:

  • The Jaguars are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games against the NFC West
  • Jacksonville is 11-38-1 ATS in the last 50 games against the NFC
  • The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games with 1,500 or more miles of travel
  • The Over is 7-0 in Jacksonville’s last seven games on extra rest
  • The Over is also 8-2 in Jacksonville’s last 10 road games with 1,500 or more travel miles

 

  • The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven home games on short rest
  • The Seahawks are 30-18-2 in the last 50 against an opponent that traveled 2,000 or more miles
  • The Over is 24-8 in Seattle’s last 32 games against a team off of the bye
  • The Under is 7-3 in Seattle’s last 10 home games

More Jaguars and Seahawks Trends

 

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 49)

The Patriots will look to climb to .500 this weekend in the City of Angels, as they’ve taken their 3-4 record to the west coast. New England is also 3-4 ATS to start the season after a win and resounding cover against the Jets in Week 7. That offensive explosion bumped New England’s record on totals to 3-4.

The Chargers are off the bye as they return with a 4-2 record both SU and ATS. The Chargers are actually 5-1 to the Under thus far, with only the crazy shootout against Cleveland going in the books as an over.

Trends:

  • The Patriots are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after a win over an AFC opponent
  • New England is 1-6 ATS in the last seven with travel of 1,000 or more miles
  • New England is 1-6 ATS in the last seven road games off a win
  • The Under is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 games against a team scoring 24 or more PPG
  • The Under is also 12-3 in the Patriots’ last 15 games with a road total of 45 or higher

 

  • The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite
  • Los Angeles is 5-9-1 ATS after a straight up loss
  • The Chargers are 16-24 ATS in their last 40 games against a team traveling at least 1,500 miles
  • The Under is 10-5 in LA’s last 15 games against an opponent traveling at least 1,000 miles
  • The Under is 21-14 in the Chargers’ last 35 games on extra rest

More Patriots and Chargers Trends

 

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 44)

Washington is just 1-6 ATS on the season and 2-5 SU, as the Football Team has not played up to expectations at all. The Broncos have lost four in a row after starting the season 3-0 and have just a 3-3-1 ATS mark going into this home favorite role.

The Under is 5-2 in Denver’s seven games, while the Washington squad has gone 4-3 to the Over to this point.

Trends:

  • Washington is 9-6 ATS in the last 15 games against an opponent on a three or more game losing streak
  • Washington is 9-16 ATS in the last 25 games as an underdog of seven or fewer points
  • Washington is just 5-10 ATS the last 15 games right before the bye
  • The Under is 9-6 in Washington’s last 15 games against AFC opponents
  • The Under is 15-10 in Washington’s last 25 road games against the AFC

 

  • The Broncos are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games against an opponent playing just before the bye week
  • The Broncos are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games after playing on Thursday the week prior
  • Denver is 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 as a home favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Under is 11-4 in Denver’s last 15 games as a favorite
  • The Under is 9-1 in Denver’s last 10 on extra rest

More Washington and Broncos Trends

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5, 50) at New Orleans Saints

It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Buccaneers are 6-1 SU this season. They’ll look to improve to 7-1 in this road favorite role against the Saints. Tampa Bay is 3-4 ATS on the season and 4-3 to the Over through seven games.

The Saints are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the young year. They are coming off of a bye, so they are well-rested for this big NFC South matchup. The Saints are 4-2 to the Under to this point.

Trends:

  • The Bucs are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans
  • Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 road games while riding a winning streak of three or more games
  • The Bucs are 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games after a win by 20 or more points
  • The Over is 15-12 in Tom Brady’s 27 starts for Tampa Bay
  • The Over is 16-9 in Tampa Bay’s last 25 games as a favorite

 

  • The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog
  • The Saints are 26-8-1 ATS in their last 35 October games
  • New Orleans is 6-2 ATS against Bruce Arians-led teams
  • The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 for the Saints after a win over a NFC opponent
  • The Under is 8-2 in the Saints’ last 10 games with a total of 45 or more

More Buccaneers and Saints Trends

 

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 55)

We’ve seen some money hit the board on the Vikings with a rather concerning injury update regarding Dak Prescott of the Cowboys. Dallas was a short favorite for Sunday Night Football, but now the favorite role has shifted to the home Vikings.

Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the season and 5-1 SU. The Cowboys are coming off of the bye, but Prescott still may not be healthy enough to play. Dallas is 5-1 to the Over with Prescott at the helm. The Vikings are just 3-3 SU and ATS and also 3-3 on totals with three Overs and three Unders.

Trends:

  • The Cowboys are 21-29 ATS in their last 50 against an opponent on extra rest
  • Dallas is 9-5-1 ATS in the last 15 road October games
  • The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games on extra rest
  • The Over is 10-0 after a bye in the last 10 games for the Cowboys
  • The Over is also 13-2 in Dallas’s last 15 with a total of 45 or higher

 

  • Minnesota is 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games started by Kirk Cousins
  • The Vikings are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU win
  • Minnesota is also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games off a bye
  • The Over is 10-5 in Minnesota’s last 15 against NFC foes
  • The Under is 11-4 in Minnesota’s last 15 home games against an offense scoring at least 27 PPG

More Cowboys and Vikings Trends

 

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 52)

The Chiefs enter this game at 3-4 SU and just 2-5 ATS, as they continue to fall well short of expectations, but this time from an actual wins and losses standpoint and not just a gambling standpoint. Kansas City is surprisingly just 4-3 to the Over with tons of turnovers and a bad defense.

The Giants are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS on the season. They’ve gone 3-3-1 on totals through seven games and find themselves a big underdog on Monday Night Football.

Trends:

  • The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC West
  • The Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games
  • The Giants are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games as a dog of 10 or more points
  • The Over is 14-10-1 in the Giants’ last 25 road games
  • The Under is 7-3 in New York’s last 10 games as an underdog of 10 or more points

 

  • The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 MNF games
  • The Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games
  • The Chiefs are also just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite
  • The Under is 21-8 in Kansas City’s last 29 at home against teams with a losing record
  • The Under is 20-5 in KC’s last 25 games as a home favorite of seven or more points

More Giants and Chiefs Trends

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