When teams have results that deviate from the expectation, the betting markets can be ripe for overreaction. We see a lot of that in Weeks 2-4 when the season is just getting going because there is a race to have the teams accurately rated and properly valued. However, there are going to be times later in the season when a win or a loss might get too much credit.
Week 8 could very well be one of those weeks.
Underdogs simply crushed it in Week 7, going 34-11 ATS with 15 outright upsets. There were some real surprises in that group, like Georgia Southern over James Madison, Michigan State over Wisconsin, Stanford over Notre Dame and Colorado over Cal. There were also some that altered the national landscape like Tennessee over Alabama, Kentucky over Mississippi State and Illinois over Minnesota. There were plenty of close calls, too, like Iowa State against Texas and Duke over North Carolina.
Betting on college football has been like tiptoeing around landmines for the last few weeks. Quarterback injuries seem to be more of an epidemic than ever. Head coaches have been fired and interims have had highs and lows. Players are planning for their futures by sitting out to maintain a year of eligibility. There have been a lot of extenuating circumstances in a lot of these games, not to mention all the totals movement we saw with Hurricane Ian and then this past week with wind in the Great Lakes region.
One thing that the transfer portal and college football free agency have done is spread the talent around the country. Players want to play in the biggest games under the brightest lights, but also realize that scouts and talent evaluators will find you if you stand out and sometimes that’s easier to do on a lesser team in a lesser conference.
There are only 25 teams with one or zero losses. There are only 10 Group of Five teams that are unbeaten in conference play and only 12 in the Power Five conferences. We joke about wondering “Is anybody actually good?”, but we might as well just get used to the increased parity in college football. It’s only going to grow from here.
Here are my Week 8 Power Ratings:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Conference
|
PR
|
HFA
|
|
1
|
Georgia
|
SEC
|
98.5
|
3.5
|
|
2
|
Ohio State
|
Big Ten
|
96.5
|
3.5
|
|
3
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
93.5
|
3.5
|
|
4
|
Michigan
|
Big Ten
|
89
|
3
|
|
5
|
Tennessee
|
SEC
|
87
|
2.5
|
|
6
|
Texas
|
Big 12
|
85
|
2
|
|
7
|
Clemson
|
ACC
|
84.5
|
3.5
|
|
8
|
TCU
|
Big 12
|
84
|
2
|
|
9
|
USC
|
Pac-12
|
84
|
2
|
|
10
|
Oregon
|
Pac-12
|
83
|
3
|
|
11
|
Kansas State
|
Big 12
|
82.5
|
2
|
|
12
|
Ole Miss
|
SEC
|
82.5
|
2
|
|
13
|
UCLA
|
Pac-12
|
82
|
2
|
|
14
|
Utah
|
Pac-12
|
81.5
|
3.5
|
|
15
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
81
|
2.5
|
|
16
|
Notre Dame
|
Independent
|
80
|
3.5
|
|
17
|
Kentucky
|
SEC
|
79.5
|
2
|
|
18
|
Texas A&M
|
SEC
|
79.5
|
3.5
|
|
19
|
Baylor
|
Big 12
|
78.5
|
2
|
|
20
|
Florida State
|
ACC
|
78.5
|
2
|
|
21
|
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12
|
78.5
|
3
|
|
22
|
Penn State
|
Big Ten
|
78
|
2.5
|
|
23
|
Wake Forest
|
ACC
|
77.5
|
2.5
|
|
24
|
Arkansas
|
SEC
|
77
|
2
|
|
25
|
Mississippi State
|
SEC
|
77
|
2.5
|
|
26
|
Washington
|
Pac-12
|
76.5
|
2
|
|
27
|
Boise State
|
Mountain West
|
75.5
|
2.5
|
|
28
|
UCF
|
AAC
|
75.5
|
3.5
|
|
29
|
Cincinnati
|
AAC
|
75
|
3.5
|
|
30
|
Oklahoma
|
Big 12
|
75
|
3.5
|
|
31
|
Oregon State
|
Pac-12
|
75
|
2
|
|
32
|
Pitt
|
ACC
|
75
|
2
|
|
33
|
Purdue
|
Big Ten
|
75
|
2
|
|
34
|
Illinois
|
Big Ten
|
74.5
|
1.5
|
|
35
|
Iowa State
|
Big 12
|
74.5
|
2.5
|
|
36
|
Minnesota
|
Big Ten
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
37
|
James Madison
|
Sun Belt
|
74
|
2
|
|
38
|
North Carolina
|
ACC
|
73.5
|
2
|
|
39
|
Texas Tech
|
Big 12
|
73.5
|
2
|
|
40
|
Washington State
|
Pac-12
|
73.5
|
3
|
|
41
|
Maryland
|
Big Ten
|
72.5
|
2
|
|
42
|
West Virginia
|
Big 12
|
72.5
|
2.5
|
|
43
|
Miami (FL)
|
ACC
|
72
|
2.5
|
|
44
|
Stanford
|
Pac-12
|
71.5
|
2
|
|
45
|
Syracuse
|
ACC
|
71.5
|
2
|
|
46
|
Florida
|
SEC
|
71
|
3
|
|
47
|
Kansas
|
Big 12
|
71
|
1
|
|
48
|
South Carolina
|
SEC
|
71
|
2
|
|
49
|
Troy
|
Sun Belt
|
71
|
2
|
|
50
|
East Carolina
|
AAC
|
70.5
|
1.5
|
|
51
|
Louisville
|
ACC
|
70.5
|
2
|
|
52
|
San Jose State
|
Mountain West
|
70.5
|
2
|
|
53
|
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten
|
70.5
|
2
|
|
54
|
Air Force
|
Mountain West
|
70
|
2.5
|
|
55
|
Auburn
|
SEC
|
70
|
3
|
|
56
|
Iowa
|
Big Ten
|
70
|
3
|
|
57
|
South Alabama
|
Sun Belt
|
70
|
2
|
|
58
|
Toledo
|
MAC
|
70
|
2.5
|
|
59
|
Tulane
|
AAC
|
70
|
3
|
|
60
|
Appalachian State
|
Sun Belt
|
69.5
|
3.5
|
|
61
|
BYU
|
Independent
|
69.5
|
2
|
|
62
|
UTSA
|
Conference USA
|
69
|
2
|
|
63
|
Arizona State
|
Pac-12
|
68.5
|
2.5
|
|
64
|
NC State
|
ACC
|
68
|
3
|
|
65
|
SMU
|
AAC
|
68
|
3.5
|
|
66
|
UAB
|
Conference USA
|
68
|
3.5
|
|
67
|
Arizona
|
Pac-12
|
67.5
|
2
|
|
68
|
Missouri
|
SEC
|
67.5
|
2.5
|
|
69
|
Michigan State
|
Big Ten
|
66
|
2
|
|
70
|
Tulsa
|
AAC
|
66
|
2
|
|
71
|
Western Kentucky
|
Conference USA
|
66
|
2
|
|
72
|
California
|
Pac-12
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
73
|
Marshall
|
Sun Belt
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
74
|
Memphis
|
AAC
|
65.5
|
3.5
|
|
75
|
Nebraska
|
Big Ten
|
65
|
1.5
|
|
76
|
Fresno State
|
Mountain West
|
64.5
|
2.5
|
|
77
|
Houston
|
AAC
|
64.5
|
2
|
|
78
|
Indiana
|
Big Ten
|
64
|
2
|
|
79
|
Duke
|
ACC
|
63.5
|
2
|
|
80
|
Rutgers
|
Big Ten
|
63
|
1.5
|
|
81
|
Georgia Southern
|
Sun Belt
|
62.5
|
2.5
|
|
82
|
Navy
|
AAC
|
62.5
|
2
|
|
83
|
Coastal Carolina
|
Sun Belt
|
62
|
2
|
|
84
|
Georgia State
|
Sun Belt
|
62
|
2
|
|
85
|
Georgia Tech
|
ACC
|
62
|
2
|
|
86
|
Liberty
|
Independent
|
61.5
|
3.5
|
|
87
|
Arkansas State
|
Sun Belt
|
61
|
2
|
|
88
|
Southern Miss
|
Sun Belt
|
61
|
2
|
|
89
|
Virginia
|
ACC
|
61
|
3
|
|
90
|
Buffalo
|
MAC
|
60.5
|
3.5
|
|
91
|
Kent State
|
MAC
|
60.5
|
2.5
|
|
92
|
Northern Illinois
|
MAC
|
60.5
|
2
|
|
93
|
Utah State
|
Mountain West
|
60.5
|
2
|
|
94
|
Boston College
|
ACC
|
60
|
2
|
|
95
|
North Texas
|
Conference USA
|
60
|
2
|
|
96
|
San Diego State
|
Mountain West
|
60
|
2
|
|
97
|
Virginia Tech
|
ACC
|
60
|
2
|
|
98
|
Louisiana
|
Sun Belt
|
59.5
|
3
|
|
99
|
Eastern Michigan
|
MAC
|
58.5
|
2
|
|
100
|
Texas State
|
Sun Belt
|
58.5
|
1.5
|
|
101
|
Army
|
Independent
|
58
|
3
|
|
102
|
Vanderbilt
|
SEC
|
58
|
1
|
|
103
|
Wyoming
|
Mountain West
|
58
|
2.5
|
|
104
|
UNLV
|
Mountain West
|
57.5
|
1
|
|
105
|
Rice
|
Conference USA
|
57
|
1
|
|
106
|
Middle Tennessee
|
Conference USA
|
56.5
|
2.5
|
|
107
|
Old Dominion
|
Sun Belt
|
56.5
|
2
|
|
108
|
Ball State
|
MAC
|
56
|
2
|
|
109
|
Florida Atlantic
|
Conference USA
|
56
|
3
|
|
110
|
Ohio
|
MAC
|
56
|
2
|
|
111
|
South Florida
|
AAC
|
56
|
2
|
|
112
|
UTEP
|
Conference USA
|
56
|
1
|
|
113
|
Louisiana-Monroe
|
Sun Belt
|
55.5
|
2
|
|
114
|
Northwestern
|
Big Ten
|
55
|
2
|
|
115
|
Miami (OH)
|
MAC
|
54.5
|
3
|
|
116
|
Central Michigan
|
MAC
|
53.5
|
2.5
|
|
117
|
Louisiana Tech
|
Conference USA
|
53.5
|
2
|
|
118
|
New Mexico
|
Mountain West
|
51.5
|
1
|
|
119
|
UConn
|
Independent
|
50.5
|
1
|
|
120
|
Temple
|
AAC
|
50
|
2
|
|
121
|
Charlotte
|
Conference USA
|
49.5
|
2
|
|
122
|
Colorado
|
Pac-12
|
49
|
2
|
|
123
|
Colorado State
|
Mountain West
|
49
|
1.5
|
|
124
|
Western Michigan
|
MAC
|
49
|
2
|
|
125
|
Bowling Green
|
MAC
|
48.5
|
1
|
|
126
|
New Mexico State
|
Independent
|
48.5
|
2
|
|
127
|
Nevada
|
Mountain West
|
45.5
|
3
|
|
128
|
Hawaii
|
Mountain West
|
40.5
|
2
|
|
129
|
FIU
|
Conference USA
|
39.5
|
2
|
|
130
|
Akron
|
MAC
|
39
|
1
|
|
131
|
UMass
|
Independent
|
37
|
1.5
|
Here are my Week 8 PR Adjustments:
Up: UCF + 2, Navy + 3, FIU + 2, Toledo + 2, Buffalo + 2.5, Tennessee + 2, Duke + 2, Ball State + 2, Memphis + 1.5, Illinois + 2, Georgia Southern + 3, New Mexico State + 2, Colorado + 2, Fresno State + 1.5, Texas State + 3.5, UL Monroe + 2.5, TCU + 2, Ohio + 5.5, Michigan State + 1, Western Kentucky + 1.5, North Texas + 2.5, Hawaii + 3, Stanford + 2, Kentucky + 2.5, Oklahoma + 2.5, Northern Illinois + 1, LSU + 2, Washington State + 2, Wake Forest + 2
Down: Marshall -3, SMU -2, Kent State -3, UMass -2.5, Alabama -4, Mississippi State -4, NC State -8 (Leary OFY), Central Michigan -3.5, South Florida -2, Minnesota -3, Miami (OH) -5, Coastal Carolina -4, James Madison -2.5, BYU -2, New Mexico -2, Cal -3, USC -2, Troy -1.5, Oklahoma State -2, Western Michigan -3, Wisconsin -3.5, Middle Tennessee -2.5, Louisiana Tech -2, Nevada -3, UNLV -3, Kansas -2, Liberty -3, Florida Atlantic -2.5, Florida -3, Boston College -2, Vanderbilt -3, Penn State -2.5
Injury: Maryland -6 (if Tagovailoa out), Arkansas -5 (if Jefferson out), Kansas -6 (if Daniels out), Marshall -2.5 (if Colombi out), Baylor -6 (if Shapen out), Minnesota -3 (if Morgan out), USF -3 (if Bohanon out)
A few notes on the biggest movers:
NC State (-8): Devin Leary is officially done for the year and the first data point for the Wolfpack with that knowledge was a 24-9 loss to Syracuse with 3.7 yards per play. This season has not gone the way Dave Doeren and his staff expected and now the team’s best player is no longer going to save the day.
Ohio (+ 5.5): The Bobcats actually played a little defense in the 33-14 win over Western Michigan by forcing six turnovers. The Broncos also only had 5.4 yards per play, which was a huge upgrade from what Ohio usually does on defense. The offense has been virtually unstoppable and that’s a big deal in a bad defensive conference.
Miami (OH) (-5): As one of the few teams that play defense in the MAC, I gave Miami the benefit of the doubt, but this is not a very good football team. The market was lower on them than I was and any loss to Bowling Green is a bad loss.
Alabama (-4): This is the big one. The Crimson Tide defense is nothing like what we’ve seen in the past. The wide receivers finally made some plays in support of Bryce Young, but that group isn’t on par with the standards set in Tuscaloosa. Young also took an absolute beating in that game while already dealing with a shoulder injury. Alabama’s talent still has to be respected, but this team is down a few notches from its predecessors.
Mississippi State (-4): Alabama’s opponent this week also took a dive and that’s Mississippi State. Maybe this one is a little harsh, but the Bulldogs were very bad against Kentucky and my initial line for Alabama/Mississippi State was quite a bit off-market, so I had to compensate. Maybe I should have trusted my original number of 16. We’ll find out on Saturday.
Coastal Carolina (-4): Reluctantly, the time has come to acknowledge that the Chanticleers just aren’t very good. Last season’s losses at the skill positions have really taken a toll and Grayson McCall hasn’t been good enough to overcome them. What concerns me more is that the defense has totally derailed. I was much higher than the market on Coastal coming into the season and now it was time to admit defeat.
Injuries: Note the injury ratings as well. Those decreases would be in addition to any that have already taken place once we get some more intel on the injury situations. Some of those teams are on byes this week.
Here are my Week 8 spreads based on my power ratings:
|
Date
|
Away
|
Home
|
My Line
|
|
10/19
|
Georgia State
|
App State
|
-11
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/20
|
Virginia
|
Georgia Tech
|
-4
|
|
|
Troy
|
South Alabama
|
-1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/21
|
Tulsa
|
Temple
|
+ 14
|
|
|
UAB
|
Western Kentucky
|
PK
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10/22
|
Kansas State
|
TCU
|
-3.5
|
|
|
UL Monroe
|
Army
|
-5.5
|
|
|
Duke
|
Miami (FL)
|
-11
|
|
|
Texas A&M
|
South Carolina
|
+ 6.5
|
|
|
Indiana
|
Rutgers
|
-0.5
|
|
|
Iowa
|
Ohio State
|
-30
|
|
|
Boston College
|
Wake Forest
|
-20
|
|
|
Pitt
|
Louisville
|
+ 2.5
|
|
|
UCF
|
ECU
|
+ 3.5
|
|
|
BYU
|
Liberty
|
+ 4.5
|
|
|
Houston
|
Navy
|
PK
|
|
|
Toledo
|
Buffalo
|
+ 6
|
|
|
Bowling Green
|
Central Michigan
|
-7.5
|
|
|
Akron
|
Kent State
|
-24
|
|
|
Western Michigan
|
Miami (OH)
|
-8.5
|
|
|
Northern Illinois
|
Ohio
|
+ 1.5
|
|
|
Marshall (w/ Colombi)
|
James Madison
|
-10.5
|
|
|
Georgia Southern
|
Old Dominion
|
+ 4
|
|
|
Syracuse
|
Clemson
|
-16.5
|
|
|
Utah State
|
Wyoming
|
PK
|
|
|
Hawaii
|
Colorado State
|
-10
|
|
|
Fresno State
|
New Mexico
|
+ 12
|
|
|
San Jose State
|
New Mexico State
|
+ 20
|
|
|
Eastern Michigan
|
Ball State
|
+ 0.5
|
|
|
UNLV
|
Notre Dame
|
-26
|
|
|
Colorado
|
Oregon State
|
-28
|
|
|
Rice
|
Louisiana Tech
|
+ 1.5
|
|
|
Arizona State
|
Stanford
|
-5
|
|
|
Washington
|
Cal
|
+ 9
|
|
|
UCLA
|
Oregon
|
-4
|
|
|
North Texas
|
UTSA
|
-11
|
|
|
Texas
|
Oklahoma State
|
+ 3.5
|
|
|
Mississippi State
|
Alabama
|
-20
|
|
|
Ole Miss
|
LSU
|
-1
|
|
|
Kansas
|
Baylor (w/ Shapen)
|
-9.5
|
|
|
West Virginia
|
Texas Tech
|
-3
|
|
|
Cincinnati
|
SMU
|
+ 3.5
|
|
|
Memphis
|
Tulane
|
-7.5
|
|
|
Vanderbilt
|
Missouri
|
-12
|
|
|
Southern Miss
|
Texas State
|
+ 1
|
|
|
Northwestern
|
Maryland (w/ Tagovailoa)
|
-19.5
|
|
|
FIU
|
Charlotte
|
-12
|
|
|
Purdue
|
Wisconsin
|
+ 2.5
|
|
|
FAU
|
UTEP
|
-1
|
|
|
Boise State
|
Air Force
|
+ 3
|
|
|
Minnesota (w/ Morgan)
|
Penn State
|
-6
|
|
|
San Diego State
|
Nevada
|
+ 11.5
|
Some bets to consider based on my lines vs. the market lines:
Texas A&M -3.5 (-6.5) at South Carolina: The Gamecocks beat Kentucky without Will Levis and it was a great win for them but their other wins are Georgia State, Charlotte and South Carolina State. I don’t think Texas A&M is a very good team, but I think the market is a little low on them and a little high on SC.
Pitt + 1 (-2.5) at Louisville: Malik Cunningham being healthy is great, but I still think Pitt’s a pretty decent team and their running game has really taken off. Wrong team favored here for the books that have Louisville laying the 1.
Colorado State -5.5 (-10) vs. Hawaii: I haven’t rewarded Hawaii the way that some others have. They had the “close” loss to San Diego State, but they were also comfortably outgained and gave up over 300 passing yards to the Aztecs, which may not happen again this season. I don’t think I’ll bet this game since these are two bad, untrustworthy teams, but it’s a big difference from the market, so I wanted to mention it.
Purdue + 1.5 (-2.5) at Wisconsin: Similar situation right here to Pitt and Louisville where I have the visiting team favored. Wisconsin had that big, one-game bump immediately after Paul Chryst was fired, but then lost to the slumping Spartans. Purdue is a much different team when Aidan O’Connell is out there and he’s looked good of late.
Boise State + 3.5 (-3) at Air Force: The Falcons have disappointed me this season. Boise State’s recent rushing dominance has completely changed my view on the Broncos. This will likely be a slugfest in the trenches, but Boise State has really, really improved the last few weeks and comes in off of a bye to prep for the triple-option.
Be sure to tune into the VSiN College Football Podcast on Tuesday, as I’ll join host Tim Murray to talk about games, power ratings and more. Listen, share and subscribe!