Week 7 NFL capsules

NEW YORK GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This “Thursday Night Football” contest features NFC East opponents with a combined 2-9-1 record. The Giants (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) have some confidence, though, as they just earned their first victory, beating Washington 20-19 but failing to cover as two-point home favorites. The Eagles (1-4-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) are riding a two-game skid, though they hung tough last week against the Ravens, losing 30-28 but covering as 10-point dogs. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a six-point home favorite. The public is biased against the Giants and still believes in the former Super Bowl champion Eagles. But despite two-thirds of bets laying the points with Philadelphia, an overload of sharp action has hit the Giants, dropping this line from 6 to 4. The Giants have value as road divisional dogs and a road team with a line move in its favor (63% ATS this season). The Eagles are dealing with a plethora of injuries and will be without offensive weapons Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz. Respected money has also hit the Under, dropping it from 45 to 44.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

This AFC North grudge match pits rivals looking to rebound from losses. The Browns (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) got humbled by the Steelers 38-7 last week, failing to cover as three-point dogs. The blowout loss snapped a four-game winning streak. The Bengals (1-4-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) suffered their second straight loss, falling to the Colts 31-27 but covering as 7.5-point road dogs. Losing but covering the spread has been a theme for Cincinnati. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a four-point road favorite. Sharp money has sided with the home dog Bengals, dropping Cleveland from -4 to -3.5. Cincinnati has value as a divisional dog with a line move in its favor. Some respected money has hit this Under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 50.5. Lead referee Tony Corrente historically has been great to the Under (57.6%). 

DALLAS COWBOYS AT WASHINGTON

These NFC East rivals have struggled mightily, combining for a putrid 3-9 record. The Cowboys (2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS) were completely embarrassed Monday night, falling to the Cardinals 38-10 as one-point home favorites. Dallas hasn’t covered a single game this season. The only other 0-6 ATS team is the Jets. On the flip side, Washington (1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) is mired in a five-game skid but was able to cover last week, losing to the Giants 20-19 as a 1.5-point dog. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. A massive wave of sharp action has hit Washington plus the points, dropping this line all the way down to 1. Washington has value as a divisional dog with a line move in its favor. Washington has an edge with a ferocious front seven facing a porous and injury-riddled Dallas offensive line. Washington also has a rest advantage as Dallas played Monday night. Pro money has hit the Under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46. 

DETROIT LIONS AT ATLANTA FALCONS

These NFC foes are coming off impressive Week 6 victories. The Lions (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) returned from their bye week with a dominant 34-16 win over the Jaguars, easily covering as three-point road favorites. The Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) got a bounce from interim coach Raheem Morris, upsetting the Vikings 40-23 and winning straight up as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a three-point home favorite. Spread bets are split, and the public doesn’t know whom to back. However, pro money has gotten down on the Lions at the key number of + 3, dropping this line to 2.5. Short road dogs + 6 or less have gone 23-11 ATS (68%) this season. Road teams with line moves in their favor have gone 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. The total is a high 57. Both teams have been profitable to the Over, with the Lions 3-2 and the Falcons 4-2. 

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Recency bias could be at play, as these NFC South opponents are coming off different performances. The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) saw their three-game winning streak end when they fell to the Bears 23-16, losing straight up as two-point home favorites. The Saints are coming off a bye week and have won two straight, most recently beating the Chargers 30-27 but failing to cover as seven-point favorites. This line opened with the Saints listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The public is leaning on New Orleans at home with extra rest. However, this line has remained frozen at 7.5 or even dipped to 7 at some shops, signaling some liability on the Panthers plus the points. Carolina has value as a road divisional dog in a buy-low spot off a loss. Road teams have covered 55% of the time this season with the lack of fans in the stands and decreased home-field advantage. Also, lead official Craig Wrolstad historically favors road teams (57.4% ATS). If you see this line fall to 7 across the board, that will be a sign that smart money is united on the Panthers. Teddy Bridgewater is 20-5 ATS (80%) as a dog in his career.

BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW YORK JETS

This AFC East grudge match features the biggest spread on the Week 7 board. The Bills (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) raced to a 4-0 start but have lost two straight, most recently falling to the Chiefs 26-17 at home and failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites. The Jets (0-6 SU, 0-6 ATS) are an absolute dumpster fire and seem to be getting worse each week. New York is -110 in point differential and on pace to have the worst point differential in NFL history. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 10.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are united in their disgust for the Jets and have steamed the Bills up from -10.5 to -13. This line might rise even higher. Buffalo has value as a road team with a line move in its favor (64% ATS this season). The Jets are awful but do have value as contrarian divisional dogs with an inflated line getting double-digit points.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

Both teams are looking to rebound from tough losses. The Packers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) suffered their first defeat last week, getting blown out by the Bucs 38-10 and losing straight up as 2.5-point favorites. The Texans (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) hung tough with the Titans but lost 42-36 in overtime and failed to cover as 3.5-point dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a three-point road favorite. Pros and Joes expect the Packers to bounce back after an uncharacteristic thrashing. This lopsided support has pushed Green Bay up to -3.5. Historically, it has been profitable to back teams off blowout losses of 20 points or more. They’ve covered at about a 54% clip the next week over the last decade or so. Also, road teams with line moves in their favor are 63% ATS this season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT TENNESSEE TITANS

This showdown between two of the NFL’s three undefeated teams is the marquee matchup of the early Sunday slate. The Steelers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-7 drubbing of the Browns, easily covering as three-point home favorites. Pittsburgh is an NFL-best + 62 in point differential this season. The Titans (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been equally impressive, overcoming a COVID-19 scare and not missing a beat. Tennessee just beat the Texans 42-36, covering as a 3.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as about a 2.5-point road favorite (some shops opened closer to Steelers -1.5). The public is backing the streaking Steelers, but the books that opened Steelers -2.5 have fallen to 2. This signals some wise-guy liability on the Titans at home as contrarian short dogs. The total is 52. Both teams are profitable to the Over, with Pittsburgh 3-2 and Tennessee 4-1. 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

Bettors are in for a treat with this sneaky-big late-afternoon NFC West showdown. The Seahawks (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) are one of just three undefeated teams. Seattle is coming off a bye and edged the Vikings 27-26 their last time out, although it failed to cover as a 6.5-point favorite. On the flip side, the Cardinals (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak, having just crushed the Cowboys 38-10 on “Monday Night Football” and easily covering as one-point underdogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a short three-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Seahawks, who have become an auto-bet for Average Joes. This lopsided support pushed the line up from Seattle -3 to -3.5. Once the hook was available, sharps pounced on the Cardinals + 3.5, which has dropped many shops back to 3. Seattle would have value as a road favorite off a bye (about 69% ATS the last decade). However, Arizona has value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The hook could end up being crucial. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

These nonconference opponents are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) snapped a two-game skid with a big 24-16 upset win over the Rams, winning outright as two-point home dogs. The Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been mired in virus concerns and just lost their second straight game, falling to the Broncos 18-12 and losing straight up as seven-point home favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a three-point home favorite. Spread bets are split, and the public doesn’t know whom to take. However, this line has fallen from Pats -3 to -2.5. This signals pro money grabbing the points and backing San Francisco at the key number of + 3. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 23-11 ATS (68%) this season. Road teams with line moves in their favor are 27-16 ATS (63%). In his young career, Jimmy Garoppolo is 10-3 ATS as a dog.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DENVER BRONCOS

This AFC West matchup features two teams coming off road victories. The Chiefs (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) rebounded from their first loss with a big win over the Bills 26-17 on Monday night, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. The Broncos (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS) started 0-3 but have since ripped off two straight wins, most recently upsetting the Patriots 18-12 in Foxboro, winning straight up as seven-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as about a nine-point road favorite. We’ve seen heavy Pro and Joe action rush to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs, which has pushed this line up to Kansas City -9.5 or -10. Road teams with line moves in their favor are 64% ATS this season. The Broncos have value as divisional home dogs with an inflated line. We’ve seen some Under money show up, dropping the total from 49 to 48. Historically, divisional Unders that drop have been smart bets. Kansas City is 4-2 to the Under this season, and Denver is 3-2 to the Under.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

These nonconference foes are a combined 2-9, and both are desperate for a win. The Jaguars (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) won their opener against the Colts, but it was an aberration. Jacksonville has lost all five games since, most recently falling to the Lions 34-16 and failing to cover as a three-point home dog. The Chargers (1-4 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) have also struggled but have treated bettors well and covered in most of their games. Los Angeles is coming off a bye and just fell to the Saints 30-27 but covering as a seven-point road dog. This line opened with the Chargers listed as eight-point home favorites. This number has stayed the same or fallen slightly to 7.5, indicating some respected money backing the Jaguars and the points. The total has risen slightly from 49 to 49.5. 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

This “Sunday Night Football” showdown features winning teams with postseason aspirations. The Buccaneers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) rebounded from a tough loss to the Bears with a massive 38-10 thrashing of the Packers last week, winning straight up as two-point home dogs. The Raiders (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) are coming off an impressive win of their own, upsetting the Chiefs as 10.5-point dogs. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a three-point road favorite. The public is all over Tom Brady and the streaking Bucs, and this line has fallen from Tampa Bay -3 to -2.5. This sharp reverse line movement is a result of respected pro money getting down on the Raiders at the key number of + 3. Las Vegas has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet prime-time game. The Raiders also enjoy a rest and game-plan advantage as they are coming off a bye week.

CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

This “Monday Night Football” encounter features NFC playoff hopefuls trending in opposite directions. The Bears (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak and just took down the Panthers 23-16, winning outright as two-point road dogs. The Rams (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) saw their two-game winning streak end when they fell to the 49ers 24-16, losing straight up as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Rams listed as seven-point home favorites. Pros and Joes have loaded up on the Bears getting the points, which has dropped this line from 7 to 5.5. Chicago has value as a road team with a line move (64% ATS this season) and a short road dog + 6 or less (66% ATS this season). Some respected money has hit this Under, dropping the total from 47 to 46. Both teams are 4-2 to the Under.

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