Week 7 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

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Four teams return from the bye and six teams enjoy their one off week of the season here in Week 7. That means we have 13 games worth of betting trends to share with you, starting with Broncos vs. Browns on Thursday and ending with Saints vs. Seahawks on Monday.

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 40.5)

“Suicide is Painless” should play as the intro music to Thursday Night Football, as the M*A*S*H theme song is very fitting for this Broncos vs. Browns matchup. Case Keenum gets the start for the injured Baker Mayfield and Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a foot injury. Plenty of other players on both sides are out as well.

The Browns are 3-3 straight up and 3-3 against the spread going into this short-week matchup. The Broncos are also 3-3 and are riding a three-game losing streak into the game. Denver is 4-2 to the Under and the Browns are 4-2 to the Over.

Trends:

  • Denver is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 road games on short rest
  • The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games with 1,000 or more travel miles
  • Denver is 1-6 ATS in the last seven road games against a team allowing 3.9 or fewer yards per carry
  • Teddy Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS in his last 21 games as a road underdog
  • The Over is 16-9 in Denver’s last 25 games against the AFC North
  • The Under is 15-10 in Denver’s last 25 as a road underdog

 

  • Cleveland is 6-20-1 ATS in the last 27 home games against a team averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry
  • The Browns are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 against a team traveling at least 1,000 miles
  • The Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games
  • The Browns are 14-35-1 ATS in their last 50 games after a loss
  • The Under is 12-3 in Cleveland’s last 15 games on short rest
  • That includes a mark of 8-2 to the Under in the Browns’ last 10 Thursday games

More Broncos vs. Browns Trends

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 46.5)

The Bengals and Ravens meet for first place in the AFC North, which is a crazy sentence to write in Week 7. Cincinnati is off to a solid 4-2 start with a 3-2-1 ATS record. The Bengals have played to the Under five times in six games.

Baltimore is 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS on the young season. The Ravens are on a bye next week, so we’ll see if they look ahead to a week of R&R. To this point, Baltimore has gone Over three times and Under three times.

Trends:

  • The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against the Ravens
  • Cincinnati is 15-10 ATS in the last 25 games against the AFC North
  • The Bengals are also 16-9 ATS in their last 25 road games against AFC foes
  • The Under is 9-6 in Cincinnati’s last 15 trips to Baltimore
  • The Under is 29-20-1 in the Bengals’ last 50 games against a team with a winning record
  • The Under is on a 5-0 run for the Bengals

 

  • The Ravens are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games
  • Baltimore is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 home games after a blowout win by 20 or more points
  • The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record
  • The Under is 12-2-1 in the last 15 Ravens games following a win by 20 or more points
  • The Under is 11-4 in Baltimore’s last 15 against a team scoring at least 24 PPG
  • The Over is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven games as a home favorite

More Bengals and Ravens Trends

 

Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43) at New York Giants

The Panthers and Giants are both desperate teams in search of a win. Carolina is down to 3-3 SU after roaring out to a 3-0 start. The Panthers are also 3-3 ATS on the season and have gone 4-2 to the Under.

The Giants are down to 1-5 on the season after last week’s blowout home loss to the Rams. The Giants are also just 2-4 ATS. They have gone 3-2-1 to the Over, depending on the sportsbook you grade the results by.

Trends:

  • Carolina is 9-16 ATS in the last 25 road games against a team allowing 26.5 PPG or more
  • The Panthers are 20-28-2 ATS in their last 50 games as a favorite
  • Carolina is 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 as a road favorite
  • The Over is 32-18 in Carolina’s last 50 games against a team allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry
  • The Under is 7-3 in Carolina’s last 10 games
  • The Under is 6-1 in Carolina’s last seven games as a road favorite

 

  • The Giants are 6-18-1 ATS in their last 25 home games
  • The Giants are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven October home games
  • New York is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog of seven or fewer points
  • The Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS loss
  • The Under is 6-0-1 in the Giants’ last seven Sunday home games
  • The Under is 14-6-2 in the 22 games with head coach Joe Judge

More Panthers and Giants Trends

 

Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48.5)

The Washington Football Team has covered just once in six games so far this season. The 1-5 ATS record is pretty indicative of how poorly the Football Team has played, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Washington is 4-2 to the Over while going just 2-4 SU on the season.

Green Bay lost the first game of the season, but has been perfect since then with a 5-1 SU mark. The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS on the season, so they’ve nearly been perfect in that department as well. The Under is 4-2 in Green Bay’s six games to this point.

Trends:

  • Washington is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 road games as an underdog of over a touchdown
  • Washington is 7-17-1 ATS in the last 25 games with a total of 45 or higher
  • The Football Team is also just 6-17-2 ATS in the last 25 games after a loss
  • The Under is 7-0 in Washington’s last seven games against a team with a .700 or higher win percentage
  • The Under is also 10-4-1 in Washington’s last 15 Sunday games

 

  • The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record
  • Green Bay is 30-17-2 in the last 49 home games off of a SU win
  • The Packers are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 home games
  • The Under is 10-5 in Green Bay’s last 15 games against a team being outscored by more than 8.0 PPG
  • The Over is 7-3 in Green Bay’s last 10 home games against NFC teams

More Washington and Packers Trends

 

Kansas City Chiefs (-5, 57.5) at Tennessee Titans

The Chiefs got back to .500 with a win against Washington last week. It was also a rare cover in a favorite role for the Chiefs, who improved to 2-4 ATS with that victory. Kansas City is 4-2 to the Over to this point and this is a total that has been on the rise.

Tennessee won a thriller on Monday Night Football over the Bills to quietly move to 4-2 SU and ATS. The Titans are also 4-2 to the Over. After a rough showing in Week 1 against Arizona, Tennessee has gotten on track in a big way.

Trends:

  • The Chiefs are 14-9-2 ATS in their last 25 games against a team averaging 27 or more PPG
  • Kansas City is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games against AFC opponents
  • The Chiefs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games started by Patrick Mahomes
  • KC is 4-12 ATS in the last 16 games as a favorite
  • The Over is 6-1 in KC’s last seven against the AFC South
  • The Over is 17-8 in the Chiefs’ last 25 road games against AFC opponents

 

  • The Titans are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games after Monday Night Football
  • Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against teams coached by Andy Reid
  • The Titans are 9-21-2 ATS in their last 32 games against a rush defense allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry
  • The Over is 12-2-1 in Tennessee’s last 15 against an opponent off of a SU win
  • The Over is 19-8 in the Titans’ last 27 home games off of a SU win by three or fewer points
  • The Over is 8-1 in Tennessee’s last nine games as an underdog

More Chiefs and Titans Trends

 

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins opted not to take their bye week after the London game and now won’t have a week off until Week 13. They face a home underdog role against the well-rested Falcons, who were idle last week.

The Dolphins are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, as Miami has fallen on hard times and head coach Brian Flores is on the hot seat. The Falcons are 2-3 SU and ATS for first-year head coach Art Smith. The Falcons have played three Overs in five games and the Dolphins are split down the middle with three Overs and three Unders.

Trends:

  • The Falcons are just 11-19 ATS in their last 30 games against an opponent being outscored by 4.0 PPG or more
  • Atlanta is 10-15 ATS in Matt Ryan’s last 25 road starts
  • The Falcons are also 10-15 ATS in their last 25 games with extra rest
  • The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record
  • The Under is 7-3 in Atlanta’s last 10 games off of the bye week
  • The Under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven games

 

  • The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog
  • The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS at home in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record
  • Miami is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games off of a loss by three or fewer points
  • The Under is 20-5 in Miami’s last 25 games before facing Buffalo
  • The Under is 6-1 in Miami’s last seven against a team with a losing record

More Falcons and Dolphins Trends

 

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7, 42.5)

The Jets are off of the bye, so we’ll see if Robert Saleh and the coaching staff have been able to improve the punchless offense. The Jets are 1-4 SU and ATS on the season, with their only win over Tennessee. The Jets are 3-2 to the Under.

New England steps back down in class to face the Jets for the second time. The Patriots won 25-6 in the first game. They also have a win over the Texans and sit at 2-4 SU and ATS on the season. They are 4-2 to the Under.

Trends:

  • The Jets are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games off of the bye week
  • The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • The Jets are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog of seven or fewer points
  • New York is 9-6 to the over in the last 15 on the road against the Patriots
  • The Under is 9-6 in the Jets’ last 15 games as an underdog

 

  • The Patriots are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 against a team averaging fewer than 5.7 yards per pass attempt
  • The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a team scoring 15 or fewer PPG
  • New England is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games
  • The Under is 12-3 in New England’s last 15 as a favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last seven home games against a team off the bye
  • The Under is 11-4 in New England’s last 15 Sunday home games

More Jets and Patriots Trends

 

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-16, 50.5)

The Rams aren’t even the biggest favorite on the board at -15 this week, which is downright astonishing. Los Angeles is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS on the season to this point, with the lone loss coming against the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. The Rams are 4-1-1 to the Over.

The Lions are 0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS heading into the Stafford-Goff Bowl, as Jared Goff returns to SoCal to face the guy he was traded for back in March in Matt Stafford. Detroit is 4-2 to the Under, due in large part to an inept offense.

Trends:

  • The Lions are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after a blowout loss by 20 or more points
  • Detroit is 6-17-2 ATS in the last 25 games with at least 1,500 miles of travel
  • The Lions are also 6-17-2 ATS in the last 25 against a team outscoring the opposition by at least 8.0 PPG
  • The Under is 12-3 in Detroit’s last 15 October road games
  • The Over is 11-4 in Detroit’s last 15 riding a losing streak of six or more games

 

  • The Rams are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 home games
  • Los Angeles is just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 against a team that has lost five or more games in a row
  • The Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when favored by double digits
  • The Over is 5-1-1 in LA’s last seven games off of a win
  • The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 home games at SoFi Stadium
  • The Under is 5-1-1 in LA’s last seven against a team with a losing record

More Lions and Rams Trends

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 49.5)

The Eagles and Raiders are both 3-3 ATS on the season, but the Raiders are 4-2 SU after last week’s solid win over the Denver Broncos. Las Vegas had a lot of questions coming into the game during the week of Jon Gruden’s firing, but the Raiders rallied together and are tied for the top spot in the AFC West.

The Eagles are already three games behind the Dallas Cowboys, as the NFC East race looks all but over. Philadelphia is 2-4 SU on the season. The Eagles are 4-2 to the Under, while the Raiders are 3-3 on totals this year.

Trends:

  • The Eagles are 45-34 ATS in their last 79 road games as an underdog of seven or fewer points
  • Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in the last seven road games after a loss to an NFC opponent
  • The Eagles are 15-22 ATS in their last 37 road games against a team with a winning record
  • Philadelphia is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine road games
  • The Over is 14-9-2 in Philadelphia’s last 25 road games on extra rest
  • The Over is also 38-29 in Philadelphia’s last 67 games with over 1,000 miles of travel

 

  • The Raiders are 15-37-2 ATS in their last 54 home games against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • The Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS against an opponent that played a Thursday game the week prior
  • Las Vegas is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games against a team allowing 24.5 or more PPG
  • The Over is 6-1 in the last seven games at Allegiant Stadium
  • The Over is 32-14-3 in the last 49 home games against an opponent on travel of 1,000 miles or more

More Eagles and Raiders Trends

 

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12, 47)

The Bears are down in the Sunshine State as a big underdog this week against the Buccaneers. Chicago is actually off to a 3-3 start SU and ATS, but you wouldn’t really know it from just following the news headlines and blurbs. The Bears are 5-1 to the Under, which is certainly an indicator of how much the offense has struggled.

Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season. The Bucs have done what they’ve needed to do to win, but haven’t covered many numbers to this point. The Over is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s six games thus far.

Trends:

  • The Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games against an offense scoring at least 27 PPG
  • The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against a team on extra rest
  • Chicago is also 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning record
  • The Under is 16-2 in Chicago’s last 18 games as a double-digit underdog
  • The Under is 10-0 in Chicago’s last 10 road games against a team off of a win

 

  • The Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 against a pass defense allowing more than 6.9 yards per attempt
  • Tampa Bay is just 7-6 ATS in the last 13 games as a favorite of 10 or more, but 6-3 ATS in the last nine home games in that role
  • The Bucs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games on extra rest
  • The Over is 7-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 12 home games with Tom Brady
  • The Over is 31-19 in Tampa Bay’s last 50 games with a total of 45 or more

More Bears and Buccaneers Trends

 

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-18, 47.5)

The Cardinals are in their largest favorite role in a long time as they take on the Texans. Arizona is the only undefeated team left at 6-0 and has covered in five of those six wins. The Cardinals have gone Over three times and Under three times and this total is moving down with the expectation of a blowout.

Houston is just 1-5 SU, but 3-3 ATS on the season. The Texans have lost five in a row after beating Jacksonville in Week 1. The Texans have played three Overs and three Unders to this point.

Trends:

  • The Texans are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games against teams outscoring opponents by at least 8.0 PPG
  • Houston is 2-11-2 in the last 15 road games against an opponent off of a win
  • The Texans are also 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games against a team with a .700 or better win percentage
  • The Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record
  • The Under is 15-5 in Houston’s last 20 road games against an opponent that won by 20 or more the game prior
  • The Over is 8-1-1 in Houston’s last 10 against a team with a .800 or better win percentage

 

  • Arizona is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games as a favorite of 10 or more points
  • The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
  • The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team on a losing streak of at least four games
  • The Under is 17-8 in Arizona’s last 25 as a home favorite
  • The Under is 14-10-1 in Arizona’s last 25 games
  • The Under is 8-2 in Arizona’s last 10 against a team with a losing record

More Texans and Cardinals Trends

 

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 44)

The Colts and 49ers are each pretty desperate for a win here, as the 49ers come off of the bye looking to get to .500. San Francisco is 2-3 to start the season and only 1-4 ATS. The Niners have played three Unders out of their five games to this point.

Indianapolis is 2-4 SU, but 4-2 ATS. The Colts do seem to be playing with a little more consistency, but are still clear underdogs for Sunday Night Football with the long travel to California. Indianapolis is split down the middle on totals with three Overs and three Unders.

Trends:

  • Indianapolis is 20-4-1 ATS in the last 25 games against teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per pass attempt
  • The Colts are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 against the NFC
  • Indianapolis is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 road games against a team off a bye
  • The Over is 7-0 in the last seven Colts games with at least 1,000 miles of travel
  • The Over is 13-1-1 in Indianapolis’s last 15 on Sunday Night Football

 

  • The 49ers are just 7-6 ATS in their last 13 home games off the bye
  • San Francisco is 14-10-1 ATS in the last 25 home games against AFC opponents
  • The 49ers are 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Under is 9-6 in SF’s last 15 games at home on extra rest and 5-0 in the last five games off the bye
  • The Over is 14-10-1 in the last 25 games as a favorite for San Francisco

More Colts and 49ers Trends

 

New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 43) at Seattle Seahawks

The Saints and Seahawks finish up Week 7 with Monday Night Football in the Northwest. The Saints are 3-2 SU and ATS on the season and are off of their bye week. The Seahawks play Game 2 of the Geno Smith Experience and are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the season.

The Seahawks are 4-2 to the Under and the Saints are 3-2 to the Under and we’ve seen under money hit the board in this game with a couple of lackluster offenses.

Trends:

  • The Saints are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 road games in October
  • New Orleans is 20-4-1 ATS in the last 25 October games overall
  • The Saints are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against an opponent that played Sunday Night Football
  • New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in the last five Monday Night Football games
  • The Over is 9-1 in the last 10 for the Saints against an opponent on extra rest
  • The Over is also 12-3 in the last 15 games for New Orleans on more than 13 days rest

 

  • The Seahawks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 on more than six days rest, including 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 MNF games
  • Seattle is 5-8-2 ATS in the last 15 against the NFC South
  • The Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win
  • The Under is 13-9-1 in Seattle’s last 23 against an opponent on more than 13 days rest
  • The Over is 49-36-1 in Seattle’s last 86 games on more than six days rest
  • The Under is 5-1 in the last six Seahawks games against a team with a winning record

More Saints and Seahawks Trends

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