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Week 6 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

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Week 6 of the NFL season brings us 14 games instead of 16, as bye weeks have started around the NFL. The Falcons, Saints, Jets and 49ers will all enjoy their one week off of the season, which is now 18 weeks long.

We don’t have as many division games this week as we’ve had in past weeks, so the betting trends won’t showcase as much familiarity between the teams, but there is always something to think about based on past results.

Here are some Week 6 betting trends of note:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 52.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Buccaneers are off to a 4-1 start straight up, but have only covered the spread in two of their five games. They’ve been favored in all five and are a clear-cut favorite in this one as well. The Eagles are 2-3 SU and ATS on the season, having scored an upset win last week over the Panthers.

It seems like a lot of bettors are expecting points on Thursday Night Football with a total in the low 50s that has been on the rise. The Bucs are 4-1 to the Over and the Eagles are 3-2 to the Under going into this one.

Trends:

  • The Buccaneers are just 6-7 ATS in their 13 road games with Tom Brady
  • Tampa Bay is 9-5-1 ATS in the last 15 games against a team with a losing record
  • The Bucs are also 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against the NFC East
  • The Over is 15-10 in Tampa Bay’s last 25 against a team averaging more than 4.4 yards per rushing attempt
  • The Over is 7-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 Thursday games, including Week 1 against Dallas
  • The Over is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last seven as a favorite

 

  • The Eagles are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games against a team allowing more than 23.5 PPG
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last six Thursday games
  • Philadelphia is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 against a team coming off a SU win
  • The Eagles are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team on short rest
  • The Under is 12-3 in the last 15 home games for the Eagles against a team allowing more than 23.5 PPG
  • The Over is 8-2 in Philly’s last 10 against a team on short rest

More Buccaneers and Eagles Trends

 

Miami Dolphins (-3, 47) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

The Dolphins and Jaguars are separated by 70 minutes by plane. Instead, the two teams had to fly more than eight hours to play each other in London. This will be a de facto home game for Jacksonville, who is 3-4 in seven previous London games. The Dolphins are 1-3 across the pond, with their most recent game back in 2017.

These two teams only have one win combined, as the Dolphins are 1-4 and the Jaguars are 0-5. Miami is 2-3 ATS and Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS. The Dolphins are 3-2 to the Over and the Jags are 3-2 to the Under.

General London Trends:

  • The favorite is 19-10 ATS in the 29 London games
  • There have been 15 Overs and 14 Unders

Game Trends:

  • Miami is 4-10-1 in the last 15 games after a loss of 20 or more points
  • The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games while on a losing streak of four or more games
  • The Dolphins are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against teams with a .300 win percentage or lower
  • The Under is 6-1 in Miami’s last seven off a blowout loss of 20 or more points
  • The Under is 5-1 in Miami’s last six against a team with a losing record
  • The Over is 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 games off a SU loss

 

  • Jacksonville is 3-4 ATS in London games, but will be playing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the first time
  • The Jaguars are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games before the bye week
  • Jacksonville is 6-15 ATS in the last 21 games with travel of 2,000 or more miles
  • The Over is 7-0 in Jacksonville’s last seven games against teams scoring 18.5 PPG or fewer
  • The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s seven London games

More Dolphins and Jaguars Trends

 

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 43)

This is a big number and quite possibly the biggest spread ever for a 1-4 team in Week 6. The Colts are 3-2 ATS, but only have that one SU win. The Texans also have one win, but have lost four in a row. Houston is 3-2 ATS as well.

Both teams are 3-2 to the Over heading into this AFC South matchup.

Trends:

  • The Texans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent that just played an overtime game
  • The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Colts
  • Houston is just 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 road games off a SU loss
  • Houston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games overall
  • The Under is 8-2 in Houston’s last 10 at Lucas Oil Stadium
  • The Over is 8-2 in Houston’s last 10 against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage

 

  • The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a .300 or lower win percentage
  • Indianapolis is 36-23-1 in the last 60 games against a team allowing more than 24.5 PPG
  • Indianapolis is also 28-19-1 ATS in the last 48 games on short rest
  • The Under is 31-19 in the last 50 Colts games after losing to an AFC opponent
  • The Over is 8-5 in Indy’s last 13 home games after Monday Night Football
  • The Under is 5-2 in Indy’s last seven against a team with a losing record

More Texans and Colts Trends

 

Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 44) at Chicago Bears

The Packers and the Bears are battling for first place in the NFC North this week. A win would move the Bears into a tie at 4-2. The Packers will look to take a two-game lead in the division and maybe put a stranglehold on it very quickly.

Green Bay is 3-1-1 ATS on the season, while the Bears are 3-2 against the number. Chicago is 4-1 to the Under and the Packers are 3-2 to the Under, hence the low total of 44 here.

Trends:

  • The Packers are 10-15 ATS in their last 25 games on a winning streak of four or more games
  • Green Bay is 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games against NFC opponents
  • The Packers are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games
  • The Over is 49-36-2 in the last 87 games for the Packers against a team scoring 18.5 PPG or fewer
  • The Over is 10-5 in Green Bay’s last 15 games against Chicago
  • The Over is also 6-1 in the last seven against the NFC North

 

  • The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games against an opponent riding a four or more game winning streak
  • The Bears are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games against the Packers
  • Chicago is also just 7-19 ATS against the Packers with starting QB Aaron Rodgers
  • The Under is 7-0 in Chicago’s last seven October games
  • The Under is 18-7-1 in Chicago’s last 26 games against a team with a .700 or better win percentage

More Packers and Bears Trends

 

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 55) at Washington Football Team

The Chiefs have a losing record after five games for the first time since 2014 heading into this Week 6 matchup with Washington. Kansas City is a big favorite to get back to .500 straight up, but won’t be able to get back to .500 against the spread. The Chiefs have only covered once in five tries.

Washington has also only covered once in five games. The Football Team is also 2-3 SU, but that seems like much less of a surprise than where the Chiefs currently are. The teams have combined to go 8-2 to the Over, with 4-1 Over records for each.

Trends:

  • The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 October road games
  • The Chiefs are just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games
  • Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games against a team allowing more than 23.5 PPG
  • The Over is 9-1 in KC’s last 10 road games against a team with a losing record
  • The Under is 4-1 in KC’s last five after a loss
  • The Under is 9-1 in KC’s last 10 against teams being outscored by at least 6.0 PPG

 

  • Washington is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven home games against a team averaging 4.7 YPC or more
  • The Football Team is just 9-16 ATS in the last 25 as an underdog of seven or fewer points
  • Washington is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven against a team averaging 27 PPG or higher
  • The Over is 16-9 in Washington’s last 25 games against an AFC opponent
  • The Under is 15-9-1 in Washington’s last 25 against an opponent off a SU loss

More Chiefs and Washington Trends

 

Minnesota Vikings (-1, 46) at Carolina Panthers

The Vikings season could be going much differently with a good kick against the Cardinals and a little more offense against the Browns. We’ll see if Minnesota can climb to .500 with a win this week. The Vikes are 2-3 SU and ATS. They’re 3-2 to the Under to this point.

The Panthers started 3-0, but have dropped two straight games both SU and ATS. The Under is 4-1 in Carolina games thus far.

Trends:

  • The Vikings are 11-38-1 ATS on the road in their last 50 games against a team allowing fewer than 20 PPG
  • The Vikings are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 against a team averaging fewer than 3.8 yards per carry
  • Minnesota is 5-19-1 ATS in the last 25 games against a pass defense allowing fewer than 5.75 yards per pass attempt
  • Minnesota is 2-10 ATS in the last 12 games overall
  • The Under is 16-6-3 in Minnesota’s last 25 after a SU win or three points or fewer
  • The Under is 12-3 in the last 15 road games against NFC South opponents for the Vikings

 

  • Carolina is 15-10 ATS in the last 25 games against the NFC North
  • The Panthers are just 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 home Sunday games
  • Carolina is 6-19 ATS in the last 25 against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog
  • The Under is 9-5-1 in Carolina’s last 15 against a team on a bye the following week
  • The Over is 17-8 in Carolina’s last 25 against a team allowing more than 4.7 YPC

More Vikings and Panthers Trends

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 51.5)

The game of the week looks to be this one between the Chargers, who are in that west-to-east early kickoff spot, and the Ravens, who are on a short week after a dramatic comeback win. The Ravens are 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 ATS on the season. The Chargers are 4-1 in both departments heading into this matchup.

The Chargers are surprisingly 4-1 to the Under, though a missed PAT kept the Chiefs game under. Last week’s game flew over the total. Baltimore also played an Over to move to 3-2 on the high-scoring side.

Trends:

  • The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games after a SU win
  • Los Angeles is 18-13-2 ATS in the last 35 games against teams averaging more than 7.5 passing yards per attempt
  • The Chargers are 52-35-8 in their last 95 games as a road underdog of seven or fewer points
  • The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games
  • The Over is 5-3 in the Chargers last eight road games
  • The Under is 30-20 in LA’s last 50 games traveling 1,000 or more miles

 

  • Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in the last seven games against an opponent allowing more than 4.7 YPC
  • The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Sunday games
  • The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five against a team with a winning road record
  • Baltimore is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 against opponents traveling at least 1,500 miles
  • The Over is 9-1 in Baltimore’s last 10 home games after playing on Monday
  • The Over is 10-5 in the last 15 against the AFC West

More Chargers and Ravens Trends

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 47.5) at Detroit Lions

The Lions are winless on the season and have lost back-to-back games in heartbreaking fashion. They are 0-5 straight up and 3-2 ATS on the season. The Bengals are 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, as nearly all of their games have fallen around the number.

The Under is 4-1 for the Bengals this season and 3-2 for the Lions, but the total has gone up on this game throughout the week.

Trends:

  • Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 road games against a team allowing more than 24.5 PPG
  • The Bengals are 6-1 ATS on the road against an opponent that has lost three or more in a row
  • Cincinnati is 31-19 ATS in the last 50 against a team that lost its previous game
  • The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite
  • The Under is 7-0 in Cincinnati’s last seven games against an opponent that just lost by three or fewer points
  • The Under is 21-4 in Cincinnati’s last 25 road games against passing defenses allowing over 6.9 yards per attempt

 

  • The Lions are 15-21-1 ATS in their last 37 games against AFC opponents
  • Detroit is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 against an opponent that lost the week prior
  • The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record
  • Detroit is 41-58-1 ATS in the last 100 games as an underdog of seven or fewer points
  • The Over is 33-13-1 in Detroit home games while the Lions have lost three or more games in a row
  • The Under is 10-5 in Detroit’s last 15 home games against the AFC

More Bengals and Lions Trends

 

Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 49) at New York Giants

The Rams take a 4-1 record out east to take on the Giants in a big favorite role on Sunday. Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS and 4-1 to the Over going into this visit to MetLife Stadium.

The Giants are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS on the season. They are 3-2 to the Over, as the offense has been better than expected and the defense has been worse.

Trends:

  • The Rams are 19-27-1 in their last 47 games as a favorite of more than seven points
  • Los Angeles is 38-46-1 ATS with travel of 1,000 miles or more
  • The Rams are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite
  • The Under is 28-22 in the last 50 games for the Rams against a defense allowing 4.4 YPC or more
  • The Under is 9-6 in the last 15 for the Rams as a favorite of a touchdown or more
  • The Over is 6-1 in the Rams last seven games

 

  • The Giants are 0-15 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team traveling at least 1,500 miles
  • The Giants are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog of seven or more points
  • New York is 6-18 ATS in home games right after playing Dallas
  • The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 home games for the Giants
  • The Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 Sunday games for the Giants

More Rams and Giants Trends

 

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3, 49.5)

The Cardinals are the last unbeaten team in the NFL with a perfect 5-0 record. Arizona is also 4-1 ATS on the season, including a cover last week against the 49ers. The Browns are 3-2 SU and ATS on the season.

Arizona is 3-2 to the Under and Cleveland is 3-2 to the Over in one of the most popular betting games of the week.

Trends:

  • The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games after playing San Francisco
  • Arizona is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 with travel of 1,500 or more miles
  • The Cardinals are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 as a road underdog
  • Arizona is 20-29-1 ATS in the last 50 games against a team with a .600 or higher win percentage
  • The Over is 12-8-1 in Arizona’s last 21 against the AFC North
  • The Under is 36-24-1 in Arizona’s last 61 as an underdog of seven or fewer points

 

  • The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a .800 or higher win percentage
  • Cleveland is 7-21-3 ATS in their last 31 games against an opponent that has won four or more games in a row
  • The Browns are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games a team traveling 1,500 or more miles
  • The Under is 48-28-2 in Cleveland’s last 78 homes against after an AFC loss
  • The Under is 12-3 in Cleveland’s last 15 games against an opponent that has won three or more in a row

More Cardinals and Browns Trends

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 44)

The Raiders will play their first game without Jon Gruden and first game for interim head coach Rich Bisaccia. The Broncos are 3-2 SU and ATS on the season, while the Raiders head to the Mile High City with a 3-2 SU record, but a 2-3 ATS mark.

The Raiders offense hasn’t looked great lately and the Broncos defense has been excellent this season, so we have a low total of 44 here. The Broncos are 4-1 to the Under and the Raiders are 3-2 to the Under.

Trends:

  • The Raiders are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 trips to Denver
  • The Raiders are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 against the AFC West
  • Las Vegas is just 10-15 ATS in the last 25 road games for Derek Carr
  • The Under is 23-18 in the last 41 October road games for the Raiders
  • The Over is 7-3 in the Raiders last 10 games
  • The Under is 7-2 in the last nine for the Raiders as a road underdog

 

  • The Broncos are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against Derek Carr
  • Denver is also just 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 as a home favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a winning record
  • The Under is 12-3 in Denver’s last 15 as a favorite
  • The Under is also 8-2 in the last 10 games against the Raiders

More Raiders and Broncos Trends

 

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 51) at New England Patriots

The Cowboys are the only perfect ATS team left in the NFL, as they are 5-0 to go with a 4-1 SU record. The only loss came on opening night against Tampa Bay, but the Cowboys comfortably covered that spread. The Over is 4-1 in Dallas games.

The Patriots are 2-3 SU and ATS on the young year and 4-1 to the Under. Defense meets offense in this game and we’ll see which side comes out on top.

Trends:

  • Dallas is 14-9-2 ATS in the last 25 road games against AFC opponents
  • The Cowboys are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 prior to the bye week
  • Dallas is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games with long travel
  • The Cowboys are 17-31-2 ATS in their last 50 games against a team allowing less than 20 PPG
  • The Over is 30-20 in Dallas’s last 50 against a team allowing less than 20 PPG

 

  • New England is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games against a team with a turnover differential of better than + 0.65 TO/G
  • The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU win against an AFC opponent
  • The Under is 7-0 in the last seven against a team scoring at least 24 PPG
  • The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Patriots home games
  • The Under is 11-2 in New England’s last 13 games

More Cowboys and Patriots Trends

 

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 42)

Geno Smith will get the call for the injured Russell Wilson in this one, so the trends for this game are largely going to be meaningless on the Seattle side. All of their games have Wilson and the drop-off to Smith is quite substantial, so we’ll look solely at the Pittsburgh trends here for Sunday Night Football.

The Seahawks are 2-3 SU and ATS and have gone 4-1 to the Under thus far. The Steelers are 2-3 SU and ATS as well and also 4-1 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 against the NFC West and 8-2 in the last 10 at home
  • The Steelers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on Sunday Night Football
  • Pittsburgh is 30-18-2 ATS in the last 50 home games against a team with a losing record
  • The Over is 11-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 on Sunday Night Football
  • The Under is 38-12 in the last 50 against an opponent off of a conference loss

More Seahawks and Steelers Trends

 

Buffalo Bills (-6, 54.5) at Tennessee Titans

Monday Night Football features a couple of quality offenses with the Bills and Titans. The Bills are 4-1 SU and ATS, but a lack of quality opponents has led the team to go 3-2 to the Under, despite some big offensive scores.

The Titans are 3-2 SU and ATS with a 3-2 mark to the Over on the season. As the MNF game, this one will get a lot of betting action.

Trends:

  • The Bills are 8-2 ATS following a SU win
  • Buffalo is just 1-6-1 ATS in road games after playing Kansas City
  • The Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games with Josh Allen
  • The Over is 12-2-1 in the last 15 road games on a winning streak of three or more games
  • The Over is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last 10 games before the bye week

 

  • Tennessee is 17-26 ATS in the last 43 games against a team with a .800 or higher win percentage
  • The Titans are 13-18-3 ATS in their last 34 as a home underdog
  • Tennessee is 39-56-5 ATS in the last 100 games against an opponent scoring 24 or more PPG
  • Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Monday Night Football games
  • The Over is 10-0 in Tennessee’s last 10 against an opponent averaging more than 6.8 yards per pass attempt
  • The Over is 7-1 in Tennessee’s last eight games as an underdog

More Bills and Titans Trends

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