Week 5 NFL picks: Best bets, odds for every game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to another exciting weekend in the NFL.

With 14 games on Sunday's slate, there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our VSiN experts -- Adam Burke, Wes Reynolds, Dave Tuley, Will Hill and Matt Youmans, along with Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus -- combine to give their opinions on every game.

Note: Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday night.

Here are our Week 5 best bets:

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, 46) in London

Tuley: I guess I’m getting up early Sunday for this London game at 6:30 a.m. PT. I love these games, especially since it lowers the number to eight games in the 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT time slot. The Jets picked up the first win of the Zach Wilson era, 27-24 in overtime vs. the Titans. We’ll see how New York handles the trip over the pond, but I trust them more than the Falcons at this point. Wilson should have his second straight good game while the defense should be able to pressure Matt Ryan into mistakes. There were some 3.5s early this week. Those are long gone, but that’s OK as we’re calling for the outright upset. The Falcons are also going to be without WR Calvin Ridley, so one of the possible edges for Atlanta in this matchup is now gone.

Pick: Jets + 3

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 45)

Burke: Under money has hit the board in this game, but there is still enough meat on the bone for the rest of us to gnaw on. The total here is 45, which probably seems low given the recent high-scoring games for these two teams, but they have a common opponent in the Cowboys, who are one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Teams are required to change their game-plans based on the opposition and that may mean more aggressive offensive play calls or some decisions that otherwise may not have been made. The Eagles don’t really want to get into shootouts with Jalen Hurts. The Panthers want to rely on their defense and a ball control offense.

These are still two top-10 teams in yards per play on defense, an illustration of how their games against non-elite offenses went. Neither of these offenses is elite. The Eagles just have a few really big explosive plays to drive up their yards per play number. They’ve also hurt themselves badly with penalties on offense. Philadelphia’s 45 penalties were the most in the league by 12 over the Bucs and the Chargers going into Week 5.

The teams rank 14th and 15th in points per drive and 19th and 20th in percentage of drives ending with points. This should be a much more balanced game than what we’ve seen recently from these two teams.

Pick: Under 45

New Orleans Saints (-2, 44.5) at Washington Football Team

Burke: The Washington Football Team was supposed to bring a good defense to the table, but we have seen anything but prowess on that side of the ball to this point. The WFT ranks 31st in points per drive allowed this season and opponents have scored on over 57 percent of their possessions.

In this game, though, the Washington side draws a little bit of a breather. Not facing Justin Herbert, Josh Allen or Matt Ryan should help here, as Jameis Winston has not really looked the part as the heir to the throne of Drew Brees. Winston eight TDs to only two INTs and has completed 64 percent of his passes, but the Saints have set him and the rest of the offense up for success a lot.

New Orleans has only gained 4.8 yards per play, and the Saints are 19th in points per drive, despite an average starting field position of their own 32.3-yard line (second in the NFL). New Orleans is + 5 in turnover margin and that big edge has come in the two wins that the Saints have this season.

Washington has some offensive issues, but taking care of the ball hasn’t really been one of them. Furthermore, Taylor Heinicke has played really well as the injury replacement to Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has only been sacked three times in three starts and has thrown eight touchdown passes.

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