Week 5 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

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Each data point of the NFL season gives us more information on the teams. In the past, teams would have played a quarter of their games already going into Week 5, but that 17th game means that we aren’t quite at that 25 percent mark just yet.

All 32 teams will be in action across the 16-game slate, as bye weeks don’t start until Week 6. That means we have another round of NFL betting trends featuring every team and every game to bring your way.

Action begins with Rams vs. Seahawks on Thursday and concludes with Colts vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Here are the notable trends for Week 5:

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 54.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks have a quick turnaround to play on Thursday Night Football in a key divisional matchup. The Rams opened a short favorite and have been bet into a bigger one.

The Rams are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the season. The Seahawks are also 2-2 ATS, but 2-2 SU as well. All four games for the Rams have gone Over, while the Seahawks have played three Unders in four weeks.

Trends:

  • The Rams are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games on short rest
  • The Rams are also 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games against Seattle and 12-7-1 ATS overall against Russell Wilson
  • The Rams are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after an ATS loss
  • Los Angeles is 17-8 ATS in the last 25 against NFC foes
  • The Rams are just 19-34 ATS in their last 53 road games against a team averaging at least 24 PPG
  • The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 games against the NFC for the Rams
  • The Under is 9-6 in the last 15 games on short rest for LA

 

  • The Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog
  • Seattle is also 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 Thursday games
  • The Seahawks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off of a SU win
  • The Over is 10-4-1 in Seattle’s last 15 games against a team that has a win percentage of .700 or higher
  • The Over is 31-18-1 in Seattle’s last 50 games against a team scoring at least 24 PPG

More Rams and Seahawks Trends

 

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, 45.5) (Game played in London)

The Jets and Falcons draw the first game across the pond in London. Fans will be in attendance with proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test within 48 hours of the game. Masks are also not required, so we’ll see if we get a loud and raucous crowd for the first London game since 2019.

The Jets and Falcons are both 1-3 SU and ATS on the season. Three of the four games for the Jets have gone Under, while the Falcons are split down the middle at 2-2 on the total. The Jets played in London in 2015 and the Falcons in 2014, so most of the players have not had this experience.

Trends:

General London Trends

  • The Favorite is 18-10 ATS in the 28 London games
  • There have been 14 Overs and 14 Unders
  • The Falcons are 0-1 SU and 1-0 ATS in London (L 22-21 as 3.5 dog on 10/26/14)
  • The Jets are 1-0 SU and ATS in London (W 27-14 as -2.5 fave on 10/4/15)

 

  • The Jets are 7-17-4 ATS in their last 28 games with travel of at least 1,000 miles
  • The Jets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team on the bye the following week
  • New York is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games against a team with a losing record
  • The Under is 17-8 in the Jets last 15 games with travel of 1,500 or more miles
  • The Under is also 6-1 in Jets games with head ref Tony Corrente
  • The Under is 6-2 in the Jets last eight games

 

  • The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record
  • Atlanta is only 19-30-1 ATS in the last 50 games
  • The Falcons are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games prior to the bye
  • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in the last six games as a favorite
  • The Over is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven games with at least 1,000 miles of travel
  • The Over is 15-10 in Atlanta’s last 25 against a team with a win percentage of .400 or lower

More Jets and Falcons Trends

 

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 48)

The Buccaneers are off to a 3-1 SU start, but it has not been pretty. Tampa Bay has only covered once in four tries, which happened back in Week 2 against Atlanta. Three of the four games for the Bucs have gone over the total. Last week’s Under with bad weather conditions at Foxboro was the first.

The Dolphins are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Their lone win came over the Patriots in Week 1, a game in which they lost the box score battle. The Dolphins have two Overs and two Unders to this point.

Trends:

  • Miami has covered eight of the last 10 as an underdog
  • The Dolphins are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU loss
  • The Dolphins are 17-8 ATS under Brian Flores
  • The Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven games with head ref Jerome Boger
  • The Under is 19-7-1 in Miami’s last 27 against a team allowing more than 23.5 PPG
  • The Over is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight games after an ATS loss

 

  • Tampa Bay is 5-3 ATS in the last eight games as a home favorite of 10 or more points
  • The Buccaneers are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a losing record
  • The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS loss
  • The Under is 12-7 in the last 19 Bucs home games against a team on a three or more game losing streak
  • The Over is 14-10 in Tampa Bay’s 24 games with Tom Brady

More Dolphins and Buccaneers Trends

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 45)

The Eagles and Panthers have to be happy to not face premier offenses this week. Philadelphia has played the Cowboys and Chiefs the last two weeks and Carolina just had the unpleasant experience of trying to defend Dallas. That game led to Carolina’s first Over of the season.

The Eagles have played back-to-back Overs after starting 2-0 to the Under. The Eagles are 1-3 SU and ATS, while the Panthers are 3-1 SU and ATS, suffering the first loss in both columns last week.

Trends:

  • The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games while on a losing streak of three or more games
  • Philadelphia has 1-6 ATS in the last seven Sunday road games
  • The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 against a team with a winning record
  • The Eagles are also just 1-5-1 ATS with Jalen Hurts as the starter
  • Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS on the road against teams averaging 24 or more PPG
  • The Over is 12-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last 15 games against an opponent averaging 3.9 yards per attempt or fewer
  • The Over is 23-8-1 in the last 32 games for the Eagles after a loss

 

  • The Panthers are only 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 home games
  • Carolina is 10-5 ATS in the last 15 Sunday games
  • The Panthers are 21-27-2 ATS in their last 50 games as a favorite
  • Carolina is 5-0 ATS in their last five after an ATS loss
  • The Over is 12-8-1 in Carolina’s last 21 home games against the NFC East
  • The Over is 29-18-3 in Carolina’s last 50 games against a team rushing for at least 4.3 yards per attempt

More Eagles and Panthers Trends

 

New Orleans Saints (-2, 44) at Washington Football Team

The Saints fell to 2-2 last week straight up and against the spread, failing to win as a big favorite against the New York Giants. New Orleans is 3-1 to the Under this season, as the offense has not played well, but the defense has generated a lot of takeaways.

The Washington team is also 2-2 SU, but just 1-3 ATS. The Football Team went over the total last week against the Falcons to move to 3-1 to the Over on the season.

Trends:

  • The Saints are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games prior to their bye week
  • New Orleans is 54-32 ATS in the last 86 games against a team scoring 25 or more PPG
  • The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after playing an overtime game
  • The Saints are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games
  • The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 Sunday games for the Saints
  • That includes a 6-1 mark to the Under in the last seven Sunday road games

 

  • Washington is 6-1 ATS in the last seven against the Saints
  • Washington is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games after a SU win
  • The Football Team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 as an underdog
  • The Under is 6-0-1 in Washington’s last seven Sunday home games
  • The Under is 8-2 in Washington’s last 10 October games

More Saints and Washington Trends

 

Tennessee Titans (-4, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans are coming off of a really bad loss to the previously winless New York Jets. That loss dropped Tennessee to 2-2 straight up and 2-2 ATS on the season. Deuces are wild for Tennessee, as the Titans are also 2-2 on totals.

The Jaguars are 0-4 SU and just 1-3 ATS. They have played three Unders and one Over on the season. This is the smallest underdog role of the season for Jacksonville in three games as a pup. They were a road favorite against Houston and lost outright.

Trends:

  • The Titans are just 25-38-2 ATS in their last 65 games against a team with a losing record
  • Tennessee is 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 road games at Jacksonville
  • The Titans are also just 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games against a well-rested opponent
  • The Over is 13-8-1 in Tennessee’s last 22 games after playing an overtime game
  • The Over is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last seven games as a road favorite or seven or fewer points

 

  • Jacksonville is 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 home games with a total of 45 or more
  • The Jaguars are 15-33 ATS in their last 48 home games looking for revenge
  • The Jaguars are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after a loss
  • The Under is 8-2 in Jacksonville’s last 10 at home against Tennessee
  • The Over is 7-0 in Jacksonville’s last seven games on extra rest
  • The Under is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last six games following an ATS win

More Titans and Jaguars Trends

 

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5, 49)

The Lions are still seeking their first SU win of the 2021 season. They are 0-4 SU, but have covered twice. The Lions are split down the middle with two Overs and two Unders on the young season.

The Vikings are also 2-2 ATS and 2-2 on totals. Minnesota is 1-3, but has certainly played well enough to have a better record than that. The Vikings face their biggest favorite role of the season in this game.

Trends:

  • The Lions are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 October road games
  • Detroit is 2-5 ATS in the last seven games against Minnesota
  • Detroit is also just 9-16 ATS in the last 25 games as an underdog
  • The Under is 6-1 in Detroit’s last seven games on the road against Minnesota
  • The Over is 34-15-1 in Detroit’s last 50 games when on a losing streak of four or more games
  • The Over is 4-1 in Detroit’s last five as a road underdog

 

  • The Vikings are 13-10-2 in their last 25 games as a favorite of a touchdown or more
  • The Vikings are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite
  • Minnesota is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 home games
  • The Over is 14-10-1 in Minnesota’s last 25 games against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • The Over is 6-1 in Minnesota’s last seven against the NFC North
  • The Over is also 6-1 in Minnesota’s last seven as a home favorite

More Lions and Vikings Trends

 

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 40)

The Broncos lost their perfect record last week against the Ravens, but seem to have a good chance to improve to 4-1 this week with a coin flip against the Steelers. Denver is also 3-1 ATS after losing that game 23-7 last week. It was another Under for Denver, who is a perfect 4-0 to low-scoring games.

Pittsburgh is also 4-0 to the Under, though in a less-celebrated way because it is a direct result of the offense being terrible. The Steelers are 1-3 SU and ATS, with the lone win coming in Week 1 over Buffalo.

Trends:

  • Denver is just 29-48-2 ATS in the last 79 games against an offense scoring 18.5 PPG or lower
  • The Broncos are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record
  • Denver is 9-6 ATS in the last 15 on the road as an underdog
  • The Over is 5-3 in Broncos/Steelers games with Mike Tomlin as the PIT HC
  • The Over is 32-18 in Denver’s last 50 games after a SU loss
  • The Under is 5-1 in Denver’s last six road games

 

  • Pittsburgh is 27-12-2 ATS at home in October in the last 41 games
  • The Steelers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home against the AFC West
  • The Steelers are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off of a SU loss
  • Pittsburgh is 0-6 in the last six games as a favorite
  • The Under is 39-11 in Pittsburgh’s last 50 games against a team off of a conference loss
  • The Over is 26-11-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 39 games at home against a defense allowing less than 17 PPG

More Broncos and Steelers Trends

 

Green Bay Packers (-3, 51) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Packers are on the right track after that ugly Week 1 loss to the Saints. Since that game, Green Bay has ripped off three wins and ATS covers. Totals for the Packers are 2-2 on the season. Those that had questions about the commitment level of Aaron Rodgers throughout the summer and after Week 1 have different ideas now.

The Bengals are on extra rest after last Thursday’s comeback win over the Jaguars. That win pushed Cincinnati to 3-1 SU, but they failed to cover and fell to 2-2 ATS. The Bengals are 3-1 to the Under on the young season.

Trends:

  • The Packers are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning record
  • Green Bay is 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 games against a team that played on Thursday the week prior
  • The Packers are also 48-35-1 ATS in their last 84 games against a team on a winning streak of three or more games
  • Green Bay is on a 6-2 ATS run
  • The Over is 9-5-1 in Green Bay’s last 15 October road games
  • The Over is also 7-3 in Green Bay’s last 10 against a team with a .700 or higher win percentage

 

  • The Bengals are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU win
  • Cincinnati is also just 8-16-1 ATS in the last 25 off a SU conference win
  • The Bengals are 57-40-3 in their last 100 games as an underdog of seven points or fewer
  • The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games
  • The Over is 12-3 in Cincinnati’s last 15 October home games
  • The Over is also 8-2 in Cincinnati’s last 10 with a total of 45 or more

More Packers and Bengals Trends

 

New England Patriots (-9, 39.5) at Houston Texans

The Texans are well over a touchdown underdog at home against the Patriots this week. New England has one win on the season. That would seem to be a sign going forward about lines for Texans games, as they may have gotten their only win of the season in Week 1 against Jacksonville.

The Texans are 2-2 ATS, but have failed to cover the last two weeks. The Patriots covered last week, but lost a tough one to the Bucs to fall to 1-3. All four of New England’s games have gone Under. The Texans are 2-2 to the Over, but have played two straight Unders.

Trends:

  • The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a .400 or lower win percentage
  • New England is also 8-2 in the last 10 on the road after a SU loss by three or fewer points
  • The Patriots are 1-6 in their last seven games with at least 1,000 miles of travel
  • The Patriots are 1-8-1 ATS in their 10 games after an ATS win
  • The Under is 12-3 in New England’s last 15 on the road against a team with a .300 or lower win percentage
  • The Under is 11-4 in NE’s last 15 against AFC foes

 

  • The Texans are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 at home after a SU loss
  • Houston is 1-6 ATS in the last seven October games
  • Houston is just 33-47-2 ATS in the last 10 seasons as an underdog
  • The Over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven as a dog of more than a touchdown
  • The Over is 9-5-1 in Houston’s last 15 Sunday home games
  • The Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games as a home underdog

More Patriots and Texans Trends

 

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5, 44.5)

Daaaaaa Bears have decided that Justin Fields will be the starting QB going forward, as Matt Nagy attempts to save his job. Chicago is 2-2 after beating the Lions last week. The Bears also improved to 2-2 ATS with that win and cover. The Bears have played three Unders and one Over on the season.

The Raiders lost for the first time last week against the Chargers and failed to cover for the second straight week. Las Vegas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. The Raiders have also split their totals 2-2 on the season.

Trends:

  • The Bears are 18-30-2 ATS in their last 50 road games against teams that averaged less than 3.9 rushing yards per attempt
  • Chicago is 29-20-1 ATS in the last 50 as an underdog of seven points or fewer
  • The Bears are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games under Matt Nagy
  • Chicago is also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 with long travel of 1,500 miles or more
  • The Under is 29-21 in the last 50 games with Matt Nagy
  • The Over is 15-10 in Chicago’s last 15 against a team that played on MNF
  • The Under is 4-1 in Chicago’s last five games

 

  • The Raiders are 19-47 ATS in their last 66 games against a team allowing more than 7.25 yards per pass attempt
  • To take that further, the Raiders are 8-26 ATS in their last 34 games at home that fit the above criteria
  • The Raiders are 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 home games against NFC opponents
  • The Over is 19-4-2 in Las Vegas’s last 25 games against an opponent on long travel
  • The Over is 8-1-1 in the 10 games at Allegiant Stadium
  • The Over is 4-0 in the Raiders’ last four games as a favorite

More Bears and Raiders Trends

 

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 47)

The Browns and Chargers enter this game with identical records. Both teams are 3-1 SU and ATS on the season. All four Chargers games have gone Under the total, while the Browns are 2-2 on totals so far this season. This is a back-to-back road spot for the Browns after playing in Minneapolis last week.

It may be a tougher spot for the Chargers coming off of back-to-back division wins against the Chiefs and Raiders. There are a lot of interesting spots and trends with this week’s matchup.

Trends:

  • The Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven on the road against the AFC West
  • Cleveland is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven road games
  • Cleveland is only 2-5 ATS in the last seven against a team that played on MNF the week before
  • The Under is 8-2 in Cleveland’s last 10 against an opponent on short rest
  • The Under is also 6-1 in Cleveland’s last seven against an opponent that won the week prior

 

  • The Chargers are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 October games
  • The Chargers are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games after playing on Monday
  • However, the Chargers are just 15-24 ATS in their last 39 against a team traveling at least 1,500 miles
  • The Over is 11-8-2 in the last 21 Chargers games after playing MNF
  • The Under is 22-16 in the last 38 Chargers games with an opponent on long travel

More Browns and Chargers Trends

 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 51.5)

The Giants have been a popular bet this week and so has the over for this NFC East matchup with the Cowboys. The Giants picked off their first win of the season in a big underdog role against the Saints last week. They obviously covered to improve to 2-2 in that department.

The Cowboys are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the season. The lone loss came on the opening night of the season against the Buccaneers. Dallas is 3-1 to the Over to this point, as the offense has been humming right along.

Trends:

  • The Giants are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games with Daniel Jones as the starter
  • New York is 9-5-1 ATS in the last 15 against a rush defense allowing more than 4.4 yards per attempt
  • New York is 6-1 ATS in the last seven against an opponent coming off of a win
  • The Over is 15-10 in NYG’s last 25 against a team on a winning streak of three or more games
  • The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 games for the Giants

 

  • Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven Sunday games
  • The Cowboys are also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 home games against the NFC East
  • The Cowboys are just 20-35-1 ATS in their last 56 games as a home favorite
  • The Over is 13-2 in Dallas’s last 15 home games against the NFC East
  • The Over is 8-2 in Dallas’s last 10 at home against teams with a losing record and the last 10 as a favorite

More Giants and Cowboys Trends

 

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 50)

The Cardinals are being praised as the best team in the NFL in the minds of some people. They are the last remaining undefeated team at 4-0. The Cardinals are also 3-1 ATS on the season. The 49ers are only 1-3 ATS, but 2-2 SU on the year. San Francisco’s heartbreaking loss to Green Bay is the difference.

Both teams are 2-2 with their totals records to this point. A total in the 50s would seem to favor Arizona, but we’ll see what happens on Sunday.

Trends:

  • The 49ers are 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games against a team averaging at least 27 PPG per game
  • San Francisco is 20-29-1 ATS in the last 50 against a team with a winning record
  • The 49ers are just 2-5 ATS in the last seven games against Arizona
  • The 49ers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
  • The Under is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven road games at Arizona
  • The Under is 7-3 for the 49ers right after playing Seattle

 

  • The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite
  • Arizona is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games after playing the Rams
  • The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in home games when looking for revenge against an opponent
  • Arizona is 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 home games against the NFC West
  • The Over is 6-1 in Arizona’s last seven home games

More 49ers and Cardinals Trends

 

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 57)

This week’s marquee matchup is on Sunday Night Football with the Bills and the Chiefs. This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game that Kansas City won 38-24. Bettors appear to be expecting a high-scoring game in this one as well.

The Bills are 3-1 SU and ATS on the season, but it is interesting to note that three of their four games have gone Under the total. A lot of that has to do with the quality of competition. The Chiefs finally covered a game last week to improve to 1-3 ATS. They are 2-2 SU and 3-1 to the Over.

Trends:

  • Buffalo is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games as a road underdog
  • The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a SU win
  • Buffalo is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games started by Josh Allen
  • The Over is 8-1-1 in Buffalo’s last 10 road games when on a winning streak of three or more games
  • The Under is 22-12-1 in the last 35 road games with Sean McDermott

 

  • The Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite
  • The Chiefs are also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win
  • Kansas City is 10-15 ATS in the last 25 games off of a win by more than 20 points
  • The Chiefs are 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a winning record
  • The Over is only 31-27 in the last 58 games with starter Patrick Mahomes

More Bills and Chiefs Trends

 

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 46)

The Ravens are off to a nice start with a 3-1 SU record, but are 2-2 ATS. The Colts are also 2-2 ATS, but only have one win in four tries, which came last week against the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore and Indianapolis are both 2-2 with regards to totals as they head into the Monday Night Football matchup.

Trends:

  • The Colts are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of seven or more points
  • Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in the last seven road games with a total of 45 or more
  • The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games
  • The Under is 8-0 in Colts games against the Ravens with head coach John Harbaugh
  • The Over is 7-0 in the Colts last seven against a team with a winning record
  • The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 games against a team scoring 24 PPG or more

 

  • The Ravens are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Colts
  • Baltimore is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 games against the AFC
  • The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against a team on more than six days rest
  • Baltimore is 17-10 ATS in the last 27 Monday games
  • The Under is 21-4 in Baltimore’s last 25 home games against the AFC South
  • The Under is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last seven games after a win

More Colts and Ravens Trends

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