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WEEK 5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS

By Bruce Marshall  () 

NAVY at MEMPHIS

The Midshipmen have played Memphis tough, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 against the spread since joining the AAC in 2014. Navy 20-10 as a visiting dog since 2009, 13-6-1 past 20 as a dog overall. Tech edge-Navy, based on series and team trends.

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH

Hokies have covered past two and won past three SU in series. Justin Fuente, however, 0-3 vs. line TY and 7-14 past 21 on board. Blue Devils coach David Cutcliffe 24-12-1 mark in dog role since 2013. Tech edge-Duke, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at MARYLAND

Mike Locksley 2-0 ATS at home this season. But James Franklin has been merciless with three big wins and covers in a row vs. Terps, the past two by a combined 104-6 score. Franklin 7-4 as visiting chalk since 2016. Tech edge-Penn State, based on series trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at AIR FORCE

Spartans are 6-2 past eight as road dogs and

9-3 past 11 as double-digit dogs. Troy Calhoun

4-2 past six as DD chalk though only 6 -7 vs. line as host since 2016. Tech edge-slight to SJSU, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at CALIFORNIA

Herm Edwards has a 6-3 mark in dog role since joining ASU last year. Cal 1-7-1 past nine as chalk (0-2 this year), and these teams “under” a combined 6-2 this season. Tech edge- ASU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NORTHWESTERN at WISCONSIN Wildcats 14- 6-1 as dogs since 2016, and NU has covered past 10 as Big Ten road dogs. Also covered past two vs. Badgers. Wiscy has covered past four since late 2018. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on team and recent series trends.

WAKE FOREST at BOSTON COLLEGE

In a punishing series, road team has won and covered past four meetings and won outright past five. Dave Clawson 6 - 2-1 vs. spread past nine away from home. BC has 5-1 - 1 dog mark past seven at home in role though Steve Addazio just 1-4-1 past six on board since late LY. Tech edge-Wake, based on series and team trends.

CONNECTICUT at CENTRAL FLORIDA Huskies 3-12 vs. line since LY (1 -2 TY). UConn 1-6 as visiting dog since LY and 1-6 past seven getting 20 or more. Teams have not met since 2017 though note UConn had covered three of past four to that point. Knights have covered eight of past 10 regular-season games and 9-3 past 12 as DD chalk (4 - 2 past six laying 20 or more). Tech edge-UCF, based on team trends.

SMU at SOUTH FLORIDA

Mustangs coach Sonny Dykes off to 4-0 SU and spread start this season. Charlie Strong 1- 9 vs. points past 10 at home vs. FBS-level foes. Tech edge-SMU, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI (OHIO)

Miami no covers first four this year, though Chuck Martin has tended to play in streaks (RedHawks had covered last three and eight of last nine in 2018). Bulls were 4 -0 as visiting chalk LY but dropped first chance in role TY at Liberty. Tech edge-slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at TEMPLE

Not so good thus far for GT, 0-3 vs. line, now 5-13 vs. points dating to the later portion of the Paul Johnson era. Geoff Collins was 6-4 as dog at Temple. Rod Carey was just 6-9 as chalk the past two years with NIU before moving to Owls. Tech edge-slight to Temple, based on recent trends.

NC STATE at FLORIDA STATE

Willie Taggart just 5-10-1 vs. line with FSU since LY, Noles on 9-17-3 spread skid since 2017. Pack has won SU past two and covered past three

in series. Tech edge-NCS, based on team and recent series trends.

IOWA STATE at BAYLOR

Iowa State has won SU the past two meetings and covered three of past four. Matt Campbell 17-8 - 1 as dog since 2016 with Cyclones. Also 11-3 vs. spread past 14 away from Ames. Matt Rhule 2-4 vs. spread past six as Big 12 host at Waco. Tech edge-ISU, based on team trends.

BYU at TOLEDO

Kalani Sitake on 15-7 spread uptick since late 2017. If Cougars are dogs, 10-2 on road in that

role since 2016. Rockets 8-3 vs. spread past 11 at Glass Bowl. Tech edge-slight to BYU, if dog, based on team trends.

AKRON at MASSACHUSETTS

Both 0-4 ATS to start season, UMass now on

4-11 spread skid since early 2018. Zips were 4-3 vs. line away LY before losing first two away in 2019. Tech edge-slight to Akron, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at MICHIGAN

Jim Harbaugh now no covers past seven since late 2018, though Michigan still 5-3 as Ann Arbor chalk since LY. Harbaugh has beaten Rutgers all four meetings, none by fewer than 21 points. Chris Ash 2 -5 past seven as visiting dog. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on series trends.

MINNESOTA at PURDUE

P.J. Fleck 0-2-1 vs. line TY, 6-11- 1 vs. line in Big Ten since 2017. Home team has won outright past three in series. Purdue 1 -4 as home chalk, 3-1 as home dog since 2017. Tech edge-Purdue, especially if dog, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN Ragin’ Cajuns 7 -1-1 vs. line away from Lafayette for Billy Napier (since LY). GSU however 11-5 vs. spread since last season, 6-1 past seven vs. spread at home. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at IOWA

Rick Stockstill 7- 3 vs. line last 10 vs. Power 5. Kirk Ferentz 7-2 laying DD since 2017, 13-4 -1 vs. spread past 18 on board. Also 5-1 past six ATS hosting non-Big Ten. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based on team trends.

UNLV at WYOMING

Craig Bohl on 7-1 spread run, Rebels 1-4 vs. points past five on Mountain West road. Tech edge-Wyoming, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at UTAH

Utes no covers past three TY, 1-6 past seven vs. spread. Mike Leach 13-5 past 18 as dog and has won and covered past two vs. Utes. Tech Edge-WSU, based on team and series trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE Old PCAA/Big West battle. Aggies 1-8 vs. spread past nine at Las Cruces, 5-14 overall past

vs. line. Fresno 13-1-2 ATS away from home since Jeff Tedford arrived in 2017. Tech edge-Fresno, based on team trends.

HAWAII at NEVADA

Warriors have lost five in a row SU at Reno and failed to cover past three at Mackay Stadium. Nick Rolovich only 4-9 ATS past 13 on road. Pack 9-4 vs. spread past 13 at home for Jay Norvell. Tech edge-Nevada, based on team trends.

STANFORD at OREGON STATE

Cardinal has won 11 in a row SU vs. Beavers and 4-2 vs. line last six. Stanford was 5-1 vs. line on regular-season road LY but has dropped three in a row away from Farm vs. number. Shaw still 8-3 as visiting chalk since 2016. OSU 0-6 as home dog for Jonathan Smith. Tech edge-Stanford, based on team and series trends.

INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE

IU 4-9 as dog since 2017 and has lost and failed to cover five of past six vs. Michigan State (Hoosiers 1- 9 SU past 10 in series). But Spartans just 1 - 9 ATS past 10 at East Lansing. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on series trends.

CLEMSON at NORTH CAROLINA

Dabo Swinney 7-1-1 past nine as chalk away from Death Valley. Clemson 11 - 1-1 vs. line last 13 vs. ACC. Mack Brown 2-1 as dog in 2019, though Heels just 5-7 as Chapel Hill dogs since 2014. Tech edge-Clemson, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at SOUTH CAROLINA

Mark Stoops 5-1 past six ATS since late 2018, 10- 6 as dog away from Lexington since 2016. UK has also won past 5 SU and covered past six against Gamecocks. Tech edge-UK, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI at ALABAMA

Nick Saban has run up the score the past two years on the Rebels by a combined 128-10! Previously, Tide had dropped three straight vs. line in series, losing outright in 2014 and ‘15. Ole Miss no covers past four on SEC road. Saban however 2-5 vs. spread since late last season. Tech edge-Bama, based on series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at VANDERBILT NIU 13- 6 as visiting dog since 2013 (1-1 for Thomas Hammock this year), Huskies 6- 5-1 vs. spread against Power 5 since 2014. Derek Mason however has covered past six hosting FBS non-SEC teams since 2015. Tech edge-Vandy, based on team trends.

KANSAS at TCU

Jayhawks are a surprising 6-1 vs. spread past seven vs. TCU. Gary Patterson 3-14-1 as Fort Worth chalk since 2016. Tech edge-KU, based on team and series trends.

KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE Chris Klieman picking up where Bill Snyder left off as a dog, K- State now 16- 5 getting points since 2016 (1 -0 for Klieman). Snyder had fared well vs. Mike Gundy, covering seven of last eight meetings. OSU just 3-6-1 past 10 as Big 12 host. Tech edge-K-State, based on team and series trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at AUBURN

Joe Moorhead 1 -2 as dog last season, and MSU just 1-4 vs. points past five on SEC road.

Gus Malzahn has won and covered first four this season. Tech edge-Auburn, based on team trends.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA

Former Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was 10-5 as a visiting dog the past four seasons. Matt Wells only 6-11 as dog past three years with Utah State, though his teams are still 11-4-1 vs. spread since 2018. Lincoln Riley 5-2 past seven as Big 12 host. Home team has covered past five in series. Tech edge-OU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at CHARLOTTE Lane Kiffin has covered first two on road TY after 2-4 spread mark away in 2018. FAU 1-0 as chalk TY but was 1-6-1 in role last season. 49ers on 7-4 spread uptick since mid-2018 and have covered past three vs. Owls. Tech edge-Charlotte, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at NOTRE DAME

Cavs were 5-1 as dogs LY, also 6-2 vs. spread past eight away from home. Brian Kelly just 3-5 vs. line last eight at South Bend. Tech edge-Virginia, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at

APPALACHIAN STATE

Chants rallying for Jamey Chadwell, covering three of first four after UMass win. But App State on 15-4-1 spread run after UNC win (2-1 for Eliah Drinkwitz). Road team has covered last two in series. Tech edge-slight to App State, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at MARSHALL

Cincy coach Luke Fickell was 7-4 in dog role entering this season before loss at Buckeyes. Bearcats just 2-6 vs. points past eight away from Nippert. Tech edge-Cincy, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at OLD DOMINION

ECU still playing at a sub-33 percent clip vs. line (11-28 - 1 since 2016; 1- 3 TY) since 2011. Pirates 3-14-1 ATS away since 2016 (0-2 TY). ODU 6-3 as dog since LY. Tech edge-ODU, based on ECU negatives.

NEW MEXICO at LIBERTY

Bob Davie supposed to return for this game. Lobos 8-20 past 28 vs. line, and just 4 - 6 in once-solid dog role since 2017. Flames won 52-43 at Albuquerque LY. Tech edge-Liberty, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at TROY

Red Wolves 12-5 ATS on Sun Belt road since 2015 (though 3-3 past six). Trojans now 13- 6-1 past 20 on board. Road team covered past two meetings (2016- 17). Tech edge-slight to Ark State, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-MONROE

USA 4-7 ATS past 11 away after UAB loss. But Matt Viator just 5-12 past 17 on board after

ISU loss. Home team has won and covered past three meetings. Tech edge-slight to ULM, based on series trends.

UTEP at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

USM has covered past three and won past four SU in series by similar scorelines, all wins by

21 or more. Golden Eagles 7-3 past 10 as DD chalk. Tech edge-USM, based on series trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at RICE

Tech has won big in the past five meetings, covering four of those. Skip Holtz 7- 3 past 10 as visiting chalk. Tech edge-La Tech, based on series trends.

UAB at WESTERN KENTUCKY

UAB covering again, now 20-9-1 vs. spread since 2017 after USA win. WKU 3-6-1 past 10 on board since mid-2018 (1-2 for Tyson Helton). Tech edge-UAB, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at UTAH STATE Rams are 2-9 ATS past 11 away from Fort Collins though have covered three straight in series. Utags on 12-3-1 spread run since LY

(3-0 for Gary Andersen TY). Tech edge-slight to Utags, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at NEBRASKA

Ryan Day now 5-2 ATS as OSU coach counting interim LY. Huskers 7-1 past eight ATS in Big Ten, and Scott Frost teams at UCF and Nebraska now 7-2 past nine as dog. Tech edge-slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at NORTH TEXAS

Mean Green on 2-8 spread skid since mid-2019, but covered past two. Houston was 5-11 as road chalk the past three years. Tech edge-slight to UNT, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M

Hogs covered this one in 2018 in Arlington, Texas, but have lost seven in a row SU vs. Aggies. Razorbacks 1-5 vs. spread away from home under Chad Morris. Jimbo Fisher 13- 4 vs. spread with A&M. Tech edge-A&M, based on team trends.

USC at WASHINGTON

Trojans 2-7 ATS past nine away from home. Even with recent wins, Clay Helton just 10-21 past 31 on board. SC was 3-13 past 16 as dog prior to Utah upset. Chris Petersen 2-1 as Seattle chalk TY after subpar 1-5 mark in role last year. Tech edge-UW, based on team trends.

UCLA at ARIZONA

Bruins 6 - 1 SU past seven meetings but have not covered past two. Chip Kelly 6-10 vs. line with Bruins, who are 24-42 overall ATS since 2014. Kevin Sumlin has covered past five vs. FBS foes at Tucson. Tech edge-Arizona, based on team trends.

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