Week 4 NFL picks: Best bets, odds for every game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to another exciting weekend in the NFL.

With 14 games on Sunday's slate, there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our VSiN experts -- Adam Burke, Wes Reynolds, Dave Tuley, Will Hill, Scott Seidenberg and Matt Youmans, along with Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus -- combine to give their opinions on every game.

Season record: 16-21-3

Note: Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday night.

Here are our Week 4 best bets:

Washington Football Team (-1.5, 48) at Atlanta Falcons

Tuley: The Falcons beat the Giants 17-14 in an ugly game for us in Week 3. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been as explosive as I was expecting this season, but the much-hyped Washington defense is allowing 432 yards per game (31st in the league). That might not cure all of Atlanta’s ills, but Matt Ryan should be able to outduel Taylor Heinicke. If you’re not quite willing to go all-in on the Falcons, they should be good to use in six-point teasers at + 7.5 with other games that cross the key numbers of 3 and 7. I’m looking to use them with the Titans -1 at the Jets, Vikings + 8 vs. the Browns, Saints -1 vs. the Giants, Chiefs -1 at the Eagles and Ravens + 7 at the Broncos. Mix and match as you see fit.

Pick: Falcons + 1.5

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3, 42.5)

Youmans: Offensive genius Matt Nagy was up to his old tricks in Week 3, when he started Justin Fields and put together the worst possible game plan for the rookie quarterback. As a result, the Bears totaled 47 net yards, six first downs and averaged 1.1 yards per play. Fields completed 6 of 20 passes for 68 yards and was dropped for nine sacks. We all know those numbers, but I wanted to repeat them because they are absolutely hilarious. (When everyone ripped Mitchell Trubisky and made the struggling QB the butt of jokes, I said Nagy was the bigger problem.)

The Lions have faced one of the league’s toughest schedules -- 49ers, Packers, Ravens -- and actually outplayed the Packers for a half and the Ravens for long stretches. Detroit’s defense held the Baltimore offense to 1 of 10 on third downs, and the Lions had advantages in first downs (22-15) and time of possession (32.5 minutes). Jared Goff (69.9 percent completions, 288 yards per game, five TDs, two INTs) is playing better than the Arlington Park Bears’ two quarterbacks.

Pick: Lions + 3

Tuley: On “A Numbers Game” on Monday morning, Gill Alexander was all over the Lions if he could get + 3.5. I think we all felt that way, but that’s long gone. If the Bears’ awful performance in their 26-6 loss to the Browns — with Fields running for his life and netting just 1 passing yard — wasn’t enough, Fields is banged up and coach Matt Nagy said all three QBs (Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles) are under consideration to start this game.

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