Another week in the NFL is upon us and it is crazy to think that we’d be at the quarter pole of the season if Week 18 had not been added to the schedule. This is how it always goes. There is so much excitement and build-up for the season and then it flies by. But, as they say, time flies when you’re having fun and hopefully you’re having a lot of fun with this NFL season.
The Jaguars and Bengals will kick off Week 4 for us and it will end with Monday Night Football between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers. In between, there will be 14 Sunday games, including some really interesting matchups and betting opportunities.
Betting trends are a big part of the handicapping process for a lot of NFL gamblers and we’ve got some of those for you to chew on right now.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 46.5)
One small sample size trend for this season is that teams with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach on Thursday Night Football are 0-1 SU and ATS. That was the Houston Texans last week. The Jaguars will try and buck that trend on Thursday night with Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer, a much more formidable duo than Davis Mills and David Culley.
The Bengals are looking to improve to 3-1 and guarantee no worse than a tie for first in the AFC North heading into Week 5. Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS, while Jacksonville is 0-3 against the number to this point. Both teams have played two unders and one over.
- Jacksonville is 4-6 ATS in the last 10 games as an underdog of seven or more points
- The Jaguars are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games against a passing offense averaging more than 7.5 yards per pass attempt
- Jacksonville is also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 road games against an AFC opponent
- The Under is 4-3 in Jacksonville’s last seven Thursday games
- The Under is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last seven road games against a team with a winning record
- The Bengals are 29-19-1 ATS in their last 49 games against a defense allowing more than 24.5 PPG
- The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home
- The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games
- Cincinnati is also 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against AFC South foes
- The Over is 7-0 in Cincinnati’s last seven games with a total of 45 or more
- The Over is also 8-2 in the last 10 against a defense allowing more than 24.5 PPG
More Jaguars and Bengals Betting Trends
Washington Football Team (-1, 48) at Atlanta Falcons
It felt like we were teetering on the brink of a flipped favorite situation in this game, but the line seems to have stabilized at -1 and a -1.5 has even popped up in the market. Washington has been a huge disappointment this season with one straight up win in three tries and an ATS record of 0-3. The defense has been surprisingly terrible, but an indication of just how weak WFT’s schedule was last season.
The Falcons scratched out a win over the Giants last week to secure their first “dub” in the Arthur Smith era. It was also Atlanta’s first cover of the season. The ineptitude of the offense has led to a 2-1 start to the under. Washington is 2-1 to the over.
- Washington is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games on the road against an opponent that won the previous week
- Washington is 3-12 ATS in the last 15 on the road with a total of 45 or higher and 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 regardless of site
- The Football Team is 6-17-2 ATS in the last 25 games after a straight-up loss
- The Under is 13-2 in Washington’s last 15 games after losing a game by more than 20 points
- Six of Washington’s last seven Sunday games have gone under
- The Falcons are only 19-31 ATS in their last 50 games started by Matt Ryan
- Atlanta is 5-9-1 ATS in the last 15 at home
- The Falcons are also 13-17 ATS in the last 30 games at home against teams with a losing record
- The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against NFC teams
- Nine of the last 15 home games against NFC teams have gone Under for the Falcons
More Washington and Falcons Betting Trends
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3, 42)
The Chicago Bears appear to be going back to Andy Dalton after being held to fewer than 50 yards of offense last week against the Browns to fall to 1-2. Justin Fields got no help from his offensive line, but head coach Matt Nagy gets what he wants by going back to Dalton while trying to save his job.
The Lions are in search of their first win of the season, but they have covered in two of three games. It took a blown delay of game call and a 66-yard field goal for the Lions to lose last week, but as a seemingly cursed franchise, nothing comes as a surprise anymore.
- The Lions are just 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 games against Chicago
- Detroit is 9-5-1 ATS in the last 15 against teams averaging fewer than 6.0 yards per pass attempt
- Detroit is just 21-29 ATS in the last 50 games as an underdog
- The Over is 45-35-1 in the last 81 games for the Lions against a team averaging 18.5 PPG or less
- The Over is 14-11 in the last 25 head-to-head meetings with the Bears
- Chicago is 10-5 ATS in the last 15 at home after losing by 20 or more points the previous week
- The Bears are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven against NFC opponents
- The Bears are also just 22-31-1 in the last 10 seasons as a favorite of seven points or fewer
- The Under is 12-3 in Chicago’s last 15 against teams with a win percentage of 40 percent or less
- The Under is also 19-6 in the last 25 games after a loss for the Bears
More Lions and Bears Betting Trends
Tennessee Titans (-7, 44.5) at New York Jets
The Titans are a road favorite against the winless Jets, who are 0-3 SU and ATS with first-year head coach Robert Saleh and rookie QB Zach Wilson. The Jets are also 3-0 to the Under, as the defense has played admirably and the offense has been poor.
The Titans are 2-1 SU and ATS, but they’ve had some offensive issues of their own with the departure of OC Art Smith. Two of Tennessee’s three games have gone under the total, which is rather surprising with a weak defense and their offensive stats over the last two seasons.
- The Titans are 15-10 in their last 25 as a favorite of at least seven points
- Tennessee is 9-6 ATS on the road in the last 15 with Ryan Tannehill as the starting QB
- However, Tennessee is 9-15-1 ATS in the last 25 games as a road favorite
- The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 road games with Tannehill as the starter
- The Over is 14-7-1 in Tennessee’s last 22 games against an opposing QB with five or fewer starts
- The Over is also 7-1-1 in Tennessee’s last nine after an ATS win
- The Jets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Titans
- New York is 18-31-1 ATS in the last 50 Sunday games and 17-32-1 in the last 50 total games
- The Jets are 23-39-4 in the last 66 games with a total of at least 45 points, so keep an eye on this total
- The Under is 12-3 in the last 15 games for the Jets when revenging a loss
- The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 for the Jets against a team with a winning record
More Titans and Jets Betting Trends
Cleveland Browns (-2, 51.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Kevin Stefanski returns to Minnesota as the head coach of the Browns after a long stint with the Vikings from 2006-19. He was the offensive coordinator for one season after serving in several roles, including the QB coach in 2017-18. His knowledge of Mike Zimmer and the personnel could be a huge help as the Browns look to improve to 3-1 SU and ATS on the season.
The Vikings may be a bit of a surprise 2-1 team at this point and they could very well be 3-0 on the season. A missed field goal in Arizona looms large right now. The Over is 2-1 for both teams as we head into this game with a total in the low 50s.
- The Browns are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 against the NFC North
- Cleveland is also just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games as a road favorite
- The Browns are also 14-34-2 ATS in the last 50 against an opponent that won the previous week
- The Over is 6-1 in Cleveland’s last seven with a total of at least 45 points
- The Under is 7-2 in the last nine games for the Browns after a win by 20 or more points
- The Under is 7-1-1 in Cleveland’s last nine with head referee Tony Corrente
- Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 home games after a SU win the game prior
- The Vikings are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 with a total of 45 or more
- Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games as an underdog
- Minnesota is 36-22-1 ATS at home under Mike Zimmer
- The Under is 35-24 in the last 10 years for the Vikings against a team with at least a 60 percent win percentage
- The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 Vikings home games
More Browns and Vikings Betting Trends
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-2, 42.5)
The winless Indianapolis Colts have to go to South Florida this week with a heightened sense of urgency, as a 0-4 start would likely be the end of their playoff hopes. The Miami Dolphins also need a win to get back to .500 and have a realistic shot at a Wild Card berth. You can’t make the playoffs early in the season, but you can certainly ruin your chances.
The Colts did cover against the Rams, but failed to cover against the Seahawks and Titans. The Dolphins covered against the Raiders last week and won and covered against the Patriots in Week 1, but got blown out by the Bills in Week 2. Both of these teams are 2-1 to the Under.
- The Colts are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven road games as an underdog
- Indianapolis is also 2-5 ATS in the last seven with travel of at least 1,000 miles
- The Colts are 10-5 ATS when they’ve lost three or more games in a row
- The Colts are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS loss
- The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 road games for the Colts off a straight-up loss
- The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 6-1-1 in the last eight as a favorite
- Miami is also 8-0 ATS in the last eight games at home against a team with a losing road record
- Miami is 11-2-2 in the last 15 against a team allowing more than 24.5 PPG
- The Under is 6-1 in Miami’s last seven against a team with a losing record
- The Over is 7-3 in Miami’s last 10 following a game that went to overtime
More Colts and Dolphins Betting Trends
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 51.5)
Carolina is one of five unbeaten teams heading into Week 5. The Panthers are also 3-0 against the spread with a strong start to the season. The Under is 3-0 in Carolina’s three wins, so the Panthers have gotten off to a great start with some stifling defense. Only the Broncos have allowed fewer points than Carolina.
The Cowboys are 2-1 straight up, but are 3-0 against the spread thus far. Their games have been much higher-scoring and Dallas is 2-1 to the Over. A total in the low 50s would seem to benefit Dallas here, but we’ll see what happens at Jerry World on Sunday.
- The Panthers are 15-10 ATS in their last 25 games with more than six days rest
- Carolina is 24-12 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or fewer in the last 36 games
- Carolina is 8-0 ATS in the last eight road games
- The Panthers are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven road games against teams that average 25 or more PPG
- Carolina is 31-19 to the Over in the last 50 games against a rush defense allowing more than 4.5 yards per attempt
- The Panthers are 5-2 to the Over in the last seven on extra rest
- The Under is 6-0 in Carolina’s last six games
- Dallas is 0-7 ATS in the last seven home games following Monday Night Football
- The Cowboys are 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 at home on fewer than six days rest
- Dallas is also on a 1-6 ATS run as a home favorite of seven or fewer points
- The Cowboys are just 19-35-1 ATS in their last 50 games as a home favorite
- The Over is 9-1 in Dallas’s last 10 home games against NFC foes
- The Over is 8-2 in Dak Prescott’s last 10 starts
More Panthers and Cowboys Betting Trends
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 42)
The winless Giants head to the Big Easy in hopes of spoiling an emotional homecoming for the Saints. The players were away from the city for about four weeks due to Hurricane Ida and the alterations to the NFL schedule. New Orleans is a big favorite here in hopes of moving to 3-1, while the Giants are just trying to get a win.
The Giants do have one ATS win, which they got on Thursday Night Football against the Washington Football Team in a heartbreaking loss. These two offenses haven’t done a whole lot this season, as they’ve combined to go 5-1 to the Under. The Saints are 3-0 to the Under so far, despite some lofty point totals as a result of big turnover margins.
- The Giants are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road conference games
- The Giants are also 8-2 ATS as a road underdog in their last 10 games
- That includes a 12-3 run ATS as a road underdog of more than seven points
- The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 games with head coach Joe Judge
- The Under is also 9-1 in the last 10 off of an ATS loss for the Giants
- The Under is also 10-4-1 in the last 15 games immediately before playing Dallas
- New Orleans has a not-so-nice ATS record of 28-40-1 in the last 69 home games against a team with a losing record
- The Saints are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 against a team that has lost three or more games in a row
- New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 October home games
- The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 Sunday games for the Saints
More Giants and Saints Betting Trends
Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
It was hardly breaking news that the Chiefs failed to cover last week, but they failed to cover and lost the game outright to the Chargers. That loss dropped the Chiefs to 1-2 and last place in the AFC West. The Chiefs are also 0-3 against the spread, which has become a common theme, as you will see.
The Eagles are 1-2 SU and ATS after Monday’s loss to the Cowboys in lopsided fashion. Philadelphia is 2-1 to the Under, while the Chiefs are 2-1 to the Over. Some things haven’t really changed in that regard, but Kansas City’s record is a big talking point around the NFL right now.
- Kansas City is 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite in the last 10 games
- The Chiefs are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall
- Kansas City is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 against teams coming off of MNF
- The Over is 15-4 in KC’s last 19 games against a team off a blowout loss by 20 or more points
- The Over is 8-2 in KC’s last 10 road games against a team with a losing record
- The Over is 6-2 in the last eight after an ATS loss for the Chiefs
- The Under is also 18-7 in the last 25 games for the Chiefs as a favorite of at least seven points
- Philadelphia is 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven home games after MNF
- The Eagles are 21-28-1 ATS in the last 50 games against a team scoring at least 27 PPG
- Philadelphia is 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven games started by Jalen Hurts
- Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last six games as a home underdog
- The Over is 42-26-1 in the last 10 years for the Eagles off a SU loss
- The Under is 7-3 in Philadelphia’s last 10 Sunday games
More Chiefs and Eagles Betting Trends
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-16.5, 47)
The Bills are the biggest favorite of the season and one of the biggest favorites you will see in the NFL. The Texans have covered two of their three games and even won outright against the Jaguars, but you wouldn’t know it from this week’s line. They’re even on extra rest!
The Bills are 2-1 SU and ATS. They lost outright and failed to cover in a favorite role in Week 1, but have taken care of their affairs the last two weeks in blowout wins to cover the spread in hefty favorite roles. The Under is 2-1 for Buffalo, but the Over is 2-1 for Houston to this point.
- Houston is 13-10 ATS in the last 23 as an underdog of 10 or more points
- Houston is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games after playing on Thursday
- The Texans are only 9-16 ATS in the last 25 games
- The Over is 14-10-1 in Houston’s last 25 as a dog, but the Under is 5-1 in the last six
- Buffalo is 18-6-1 ATS in the last 25 at home against an opponent that traveled at least 1,000 miles
- The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team that last played on Thursday
- The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and 11-4 ATS in Josh Allen’s last 15 starts
- The Over is 12-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 15 against an opponent that traveled at least 1,000 miles
- The Over is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last 10 as a touchdown or more favorite
More Texans and Bills Betting Trends
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 55)
Barring a tie, we will lose one of the unbeatens this week with the 3-0 Cardinals and the 3-0 Rams at SoFi Stadium. Both teams are 2-1 ATS on the season. The Rams are also 3-0 to the Over, while the Cardinals are 2-1 to the Under.
The Rams have won all eight meetings in the Sean McVay era. Only one has been by less than double digits. Bettors have been siding with the Cardinals throughout the week, so we’ll see if Arizona has closed the gap enough to be competitive with the Rams.
- Arizona is 0-8 SU, but also 0-8 ATS against Sean McVay
- The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven against an opponent that just won a conference game
- The Cardinals are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 against a team with a winning record
- The Under is 9-0-1 in Arizona’s last 10 on the road
- The Under is 6-0-1 in Arizona’s last seven Sunday games and 7-0 in the last seven on a non-grass field
- The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games with a total of 45 or more
- Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in the last seven against the NFC West
- The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against a team scoring 24 PPG or more
- The Over is 5-2 in the last seven against a team scoring 24 PPG or more
- The Over is also 5-2 in the Rams’ last seven games
More Cardinals and Rams Betting Trends
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 52)
A couple of teams that are 1-2 ATS meet in Santa Clara this weekend in a big NFC West rivalry matchup. The 49ers have won two of their three games straight up, but the Seahawks are 1-2 and in last place in the division. It feels like the NFC West has become the old AFC North of just slapping three points on the home team’s side and calling it a day.
The Seahawks are 2-1 to the Under, whereas the 49ers are 2-1 to the Over as this one nears kickoff. Seattle has been the preferred side in early wagering with a move from 3.5 to 3.
- Seattle is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 Sunday games
- The Seahawks are 19-12-1 in the last 32 games on the road against teams with a winning record
- On the other hand, Seattle is 1-7 ATS in the last eight road games
- The Seahawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as a dog
- Seattle is 17-11-2 in the last 30 games as a road underdog of seven or fewer points
- The Under is 7-3 in Seattle’s last 10 games
- The Under is also 7-3 in Seattle’s last 10 games against NFC opponents
- The 49ers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against a defense allowing more than 24.5 PPG
- The 49ers are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 at home against a defense allowing more than 23.5 PPG
- San Francisco is 7-20 ATS in the last 27 home games against a team with a losing record
- That includes a record of 6-19 ATS in the last 25 as a home favorite
- The Under is 8-2 in San Francisco’s last 10 with head ref Carl Cheffers
- The Over is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven as a favorite
More Seahawks and 49ers Betting Trends
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1, 45)
Lamar Jackson missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday to nurse a back injury, so this game has been put into a holding pattern across most of the market. Initial money hit the board on Baltimore, but that trend has stopped as we wait to see what happens in the lead-up to the game.
Here’s what we do know – the Broncos are 3-0 SU and ATS. The Ravens have only covered once (against the Chiefs, surprise, surprise), but are 2-1 on the season. All three Denver games have stayed under the total. Two of the three Ravens games have gone over. This is a pretty popular game during what is a really good late slate for Sunday.
- Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 road games against a defense allowing fewer than 20 PPG
- The Ravens are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 as a road underdog
- The Ravens are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning record
- Baltimore is 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 on the road
- The Ravens are also 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games
- The Under is 18-7 in Baltimore’s last 25 games against an opponent that won by 20 or more the week prior
- The Under is 7-3 in Baltimore’s last 10 road games
- Denver is 22-17-2 ATS in the last 41 at home against teams traveling at least 1,000 miles
- The Broncos are 9-6 ATS in the last 15 at home
- Denver is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 against AFC opponents
- Denver is just 5-9-1 ATS in the last 15 as a favorite of a touchdown or less
- The Under is 9-6-2 in Denver’s last 17 after a win by 20 or more
- The Under is 18-7 in Denver’s last 25 games looking to avenge a loss
More Ravens and Broncos Betting Trends
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 45.5)
Things do not appear to be going well for the Pittsburgh Steelers and it looks like a 1-3 start to the season is a very realistic possibility. The Steelers upset the Bills in Week 1, but have lost SU and ATS in both games since. With an inept offense and a pretty solid defense, all three Steelers games have stayed Under the total to this point.
Green Bay also lost the opener in a favorite role, but has gone 2-0 SU and ATS since. The Packers look to be going in the opposite direction that the Steelers are going. Green Bay’s Week 1 turnover fest went Under the total, but the last two for the Packers have gone Over.
- The Steelers are 22-9-2 ATS in their last 33 October games
- Pittsburgh is 39-18-2 ATS in the last 59 road games against a team with at least a 60 percent win percentage
- Pittsburgh is 18-6-1 ATS in the last 25 road games against a team with a winning record
- The Steelers are also 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of a touchdown or less
- Pittsburgh is just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games
- The Under is 13-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 road games in October
- The Under is 42-17-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 60 road games with a total of 45 or more
- Green Bay is 16-22 ATS in the last 38 home games against a team with a losing record
- The Packers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against AFC foes
- Green Bay is 30-19-1 ATS in the last 50 games against teams scoring 18.5 PPG or less
- The Over is 37-26 in Green Bay’s last 63 home games against a team with a 40 percent or lower win percentage
- The Over is 5-2 in Green Bay’s last seven games as a home favorite
More Steelers and Packers Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 49) at New England Patriots
This is trending as the most lopsided regular season game of all-time from a betting standpoint. Sportsbooks couldn’t give away tickets on New England at this point in time, but the line was still holding under a touchdown at most books as of Thursday evening.
The Buccaneers are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS on the season. All three Buccaneers games have gone over the total. There are a lot of impressive trends and stats about Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the two will be on opposite sides here. The Patriots are 1-2 SU and ATS in the Mac Jones era. All three games have gone under.
- The Buccaneers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games after a loss
- The Bucs are 9-5-1 ATS In their last 15 against a team with a win percentage of 40 percent or lower
- The Bucs are 12-9-2 ATS in the 23 games with Tom Brady
- The Under is 9-6 in Tampa Bay’s last 15 road games against the AFC
- The Over is 10-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 15 road games as a favorite of a touchdown or less
- The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as a home underdog
- New England is 4-6 ATS in the last 10 home games off of a loss
- The Under is 7-0 in New England’s last seven games against a team scoring 25 or more PPG
- Nine of the last 10 Patriots games have gone under
- The Under is 8-2 when New England’s opponent travels at least 1,000 miles
More Buccaneers and Patriots Betting Trends
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 52)
Monday Night Football could feature some fireworks with a couple of pass-happy teams in the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers. This will be the second MNF appearance for the Raiders, who won outright as a home underdog against the Ravens in Week 1. The Chargers are coming off of that huge outright upset win over the Chiefs on Sunday.
The Raiders are one of the unbeaten teams with a 3-0 record, but they are no longer perfect ATS after failing to cover against the Dolphins last week. The Chargers are 2-1 SU and ATS, but it is worth noting that they are 3-0 to the Under thanks to last week’s missed extra point on the final LAC score. The Raiders are 2-1 to the Over.
- The Raiders are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games after a close win of three or fewer points
- Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games on Monday Night Football
- The Raiders are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 on the road after a SU win
- The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog
- The Under is 16-4-1 for the Raiders in their last 21 road games at the Chargers
- The Over is 11-3-1 in the last 15 for the Raiders against AFC opponents
- The Chargers are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a 70 percent or better win percentage
- The Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with more than six days rest
- Los Angeles has covered six of the last seven games
- The Chargers have also covered four straight against the AFC West
- The Under is 6-3 at SoFi Stadium for the Chargers
- The Under is 10-5 in the last 15 home games for the Chargers after playing Kansas City
More Raiders and Chargers Betting Trends