Each college football season presents unique challenges. As bettors, we are left trying to answer several different questions week in and week out. As we head into Week 4, one of the biggest questions centers around how much we want to continue to trust our preseason work. Another question is how we want to evaluate team performances to date.
Take Marshall as one obvious example. The Thundering Herd went on the road and beat Notre Dame in Week 2. They followed that up by losing to Bowling Green in Week 3. Those are two very opposite ends of the spectrum and the Herd are not the only team with results like this.
South Florida lost 50-21 to BYU in Week 1, but has since beaten Howard and taken Florida to the wire. Rutgers is 3-0 with a win by one over Boston College, two over a terrible Temple team and a blowout of Wagner, one of the worst teams in college football. Kansas State rolled over Missouri, but then lost at home to Tulane. Do we give the Wildcats a pass because Oklahoma was on deck or do we punish them for losing to the Green Wave?
These are all weekly questions that have to be answered, but as the inconsistencies become more and more noticeable, we’re left to figure out what’s real, what’s not, what could be and what should be.
Every data point gives us more information, but we eventually run out of data points and may never have a great handle on a team. Other times, a team is precisely what we thought it was. These are meant to be a guide, not serve as gospel. Trying to get ahead of line moves to grab good numbers is the goal. Good numbers won’t always win. Bad numbers won’t always lose. But, we do the best we can to process information and place wagers that we can stand behind.
Here are my power ratings for Week 4:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Conference
|
PR
|
HFA
|
|
1
|
Georgia
|
SEC
|
99.5
|
3.5
|
|
2
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
96.5
|
3.5
|
|
3
|
Ohio State
|
Big Ten
|
93.5
|
3.5
|
|
4
|
Michigan
|
Big Ten
|
89
|
3
|
|
5
|
Clemson
|
ACC
|
87.5
|
3.5
|
|
6
|
USC
|
Pac-12
|
86
|
2
|
|
7
|
Tennessee
|
SEC
|
85.5
|
2.5
|
|
8
|
Oklahoma
|
Big 12
|
85
|
3.5
|
|
9
|
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12
|
83
|
3
|
|
10
|
Utah
|
Pac-12
|
83
|
3.5
|
|
11
|
Arkansas
|
SEC
|
83
|
2
|
|
12
|
Texas A&M
|
SEC
|
82.5
|
3.5
|
|
13
|
Texas
|
Big 12
|
82.5
|
2
|
|
14
|
Ole Miss
|
SEC
|
81
|
2
|
|
15
|
Cincinnati
|
AAC
|
81
|
3.5
|
|
16
|
Miami (FL)
|
ACC
|
80.5
|
2.5
|
|
17
|
Oregon
|
Pac-12
|
80.5
|
3
|
|
18
|
BYU
|
Independent
|
80
|
2
|
|
19
|
Washington
|
Pac-12
|
80
|
2
|
|
20
|
Penn State
|
Big Ten
|
79.5
|
2.5
|
|
21
|
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten
|
79
|
2
|
|
22
|
Kentucky
|
SEC
|
79
|
2
|
|
23
|
Mississippi State
|
SEC
|
79
|
2.5
|
|
24
|
Kansas State
|
Big 12
|
78.5
|
2
|
|
25
|
Oregon State
|
Pac-12
|
78
|
2
|
|
26
|
Florida State
|
ACC
|
78
|
2
|
|
27
|
Baylor
|
Big 12
|
77
|
2
|
|
28
|
NC State
|
ACC
|
77
|
3
|
|
29
|
Iowa State
|
Big 12
|
77
|
2.5
|
|
30
|
Michigan State
|
Big Ten
|
76.5
|
2
|
|
31
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
76.5
|
2.5
|
|
32
|
Florida
|
SEC
|
76
|
3
|
|
33
|
Minnesota
|
Big Ten
|
76
|
2
|
|
34
|
TCU
|
Big 12
|
75
|
2
|
|
35
|
Maryland
|
Big Ten
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
36
|
UCF
|
AAC
|
74.5
|
3.5
|
|
37
|
Louisville
|
ACC
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
38
|
North Carolina
|
ACC
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
39
|
UCLA
|
Pac-12
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
40
|
Purdue
|
Big Ten
|
74
|
2
|
|
41
|
SMU
|
AAC
|
74
|
3.5
|
|
42
|
Wake Forest
|
ACC
|
74
|
2.5
|
|
43
|
Syracuse
|
ACC
|
73.5
|
2
|
|
44
|
Notre Dame
|
Independent
|
73
|
3.5
|
|
45
|
Pitt
|
ACC
|
73
|
2
|
|
46
|
Auburn
|
SEC
|
72
|
3
|
|
47
|
Iowa
|
Big Ten
|
72
|
3
|
|
48
|
Boise State
|
Mountain West
|
71.5
|
2.5
|
|
49
|
Air Force
|
Mountain West
|
71.5
|
2.5
|
|
50
|
Appalachian State
|
Sun Belt
|
71.5
|
3.5
|
|
51
|
Illinois
|
Big Ten
|
70.5
|
1.5
|
|
52
|
East Carolina
|
AAC
|
70.5
|
1.5
|
|
53
|
Virginia Tech
|
ACC
|
70.5
|
2
|
|
54
|
Tulane
|
AAC
|
70
|
3
|
|
55
|
Texas Tech
|
Big 12
|
70
|
2
|
|
56
|
West Virginia
|
Big 12
|
69.5
|
2.5
|
|
57
|
South Carolina
|
SEC
|
69.5
|
2
|
|
58
|
UTSA
|
Conference USA
|
69
|
2
|
|
59
|
Houston
|
AAC
|
68.5
|
2
|
|
60
|
Marshall
|
Sun Belt
|
68.5
|
2
|
|
61
|
UAB
|
Conference USA
|
68
|
3.5
|
|
62
|
Stanford
|
Pac-12
|
68
|
2
|
|
63
|
Washington State
|
Pac-12
|
67.5
|
3
|
|
64
|
Missouri
|
SEC
|
67
|
2.5
|
|
65
|
Arizona
|
Pac-12
|
66.5
|
2
|
|
66
|
Arizona State
|
Pac-12
|
66.5
|
2.5
|
|
67
|
Fresno State
|
Mountain West
|
66
|
2.5
|
|
68
|
Coastal Carolina
|
Sun Belt
|
66
|
2
|
|
69
|
Indiana
|
Big Ten
|
66
|
2
|
|
70
|
California
|
Pac-12
|
66
|
2
|
|
71
|
Toledo
|
MAC
|
66
|
2.5
|
|
72
|
Boston College
|
ACC
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
73
|
Army
|
Independent
|
65.5
|
3
|
|
74
|
Nebraska
|
Big Ten
|
65.5
|
1.5
|
|
75
|
Memphis
|
AAC
|
65.5
|
3.5
|
|
76
|
James Madison
|
Sun Belt
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
77
|
Kansas
|
Big 12
|
65.5
|
1
|
|
78
|
Rutgers
|
Big Ten
|
65
|
1.5
|
|
79
|
South Florida
|
AAC
|
65
|
2
|
|
80
|
Liberty
|
Independent
|
64.5
|
3.5
|
|
81
|
Western Kentucky
|
Conference USA
|
64.5
|
2
|
|
82
|
Troy
|
Sun Belt
|
64
|
2
|
|
83
|
San Diego State
|
Mountain West
|
63
|
2
|
|
84
|
Virginia
|
ACC
|
63
|
3
|
|
85
|
Tulsa
|
AAC
|
62.5
|
2
|
|
86
|
South Alabama
|
Sun Belt
|
62.5
|
2
|
|
87
|
Northwestern
|
Big Ten
|
62
|
2
|
|
88
|
Louisiana
|
Sun Belt
|
62
|
3
|
|
89
|
Georgia Southern
|
Sun Belt
|
61
|
2.5
|
|
90
|
Vanderbilt
|
SEC
|
61
|
1
|
|
91
|
Georgia State
|
Sun Belt
|
60.5
|
2
|
|
92
|
UNLV
|
Mountain West
|
60.5
|
1
|
|
93
|
Central Michigan
|
MAC
|
60.5
|
2.5
|
|
94
|
Western Michigan
|
MAC
|
60
|
2
|
|
95
|
Northern Illinois
|
MAC
|
59.5
|
2
|
|
96
|
Duke
|
ACC
|
59.5
|
2
|
|
97
|
Miami (OH)
|
MAC
|
59
|
3
|
|
98
|
Georgia Tech
|
ACC
|
59
|
2
|
|
99
|
Southern Miss
|
Sun Belt
|
59
|
2
|
|
100
|
San Jose State
|
Mountain West
|
59
|
2
|
|
101
|
Old Dominion
|
Sun Belt
|
58.5
|
2
|
|
102
|
Florida Atlantic
|
Conference USA
|
58.5
|
3
|
|
103
|
Utah State
|
Mountain West
|
58
|
2
|
|
104
|
North Texas
|
Conference USA
|
57.5
|
2
|
|
105
|
Wyoming
|
Mountain West
|
57
|
2.5
|
|
106
|
Middle Tennessee
|
Conference USA
|
56.5
|
2.5
|
|
107
|
Eastern Michigan
|
MAC
|
56.5
|
2
|
|
108
|
Ohio
|
MAC
|
56
|
2
|
|
109
|
Louisiana Tech
|
Conference USA
|
55.5
|
2
|
|
110
|
Kent State
|
MAC
|
55.5
|
2.5
|
|
111
|
Navy
|
AAC
|
55.5
|
2
|
|
112
|
Colorado State
|
Mountain West
|
55
|
1.5
|
|
113
|
Bowling Green
|
MAC
|
54.5
|
1
|
|
114
|
UTEP
|
Conference USA
|
54
|
1
|
|
115
|
Arkansas State
|
Sun Belt
|
52.5
|
2
|
|
116
|
Rice
|
Conference USA
|
52
|
1
|
|
117
|
Buffalo
|
MAC
|
51.5
|
3.5
|
|
118
|
New Mexico
|
Mountain West
|
51.5
|
1
|
|
119
|
Ball State
|
MAC
|
51
|
2
|
|
120
|
Texas State
|
Sun Belt
|
51
|
1.5
|
|
121
|
Colorado
|
Pac-12
|
50.5
|
2
|
|
122
|
Charlotte
|
Conference USA
|
49.5
|
2
|
|
123
|
Temple
|
AAC
|
49.5
|
2
|
|
124
|
Louisiana-Monroe
|
Sun Belt
|
49
|
2
|
|
125
|
Nevada
|
Mountain West
|
48.5
|
3
|
|
126
|
UConn
|
Independent
|
44.5
|
1
|
|
127
|
New Mexico State
|
Independent
|
43.5
|
2
|
|
128
|
Akron
|
MAC
|
41
|
1
|
|
129
|
Hawaii
|
Mountain West
|
40
|
2
|
|
130
|
FIU
|
Conference USA
|
40
|
2
|
|
131
|
UMass
|
Independent
|
39.5
|
1.5
|
Here are my Week 4 Power Ratings Adjustments:
Up: Cincinnati + 1, Syracuse + 2, Temple + 2, Indiana + 1, Georgia + 2, Oklahoma + 1.5, Old Dominion + 1.5, South Alabama + 2.5, UNLV + 5.5, Tulane + 2.5, Penn State + 1, Vanderbilt + 2.5, Oregon + 2, Georgia Southern + 5, Troy + 2, Kansas + 4.5, Washington State + 2, Liberty + 3.5, LSU + 1.5, Arkansas State + 3, SMU + 1.5, Washington + 4, Rice + 2, Texas + 2, USC + 2.5, Oregon State + 2, Charlotte + 3, South Florida + 3, Florida State + 2 (Travis inj? -4 if out), Eastern Michigan + 2
Down: Air Force -2, Miami (OH) -3, Texas State -2, South Carolina -3.5, Nebraska -4, Coastal Carolina -2, Virginia -3, UCLA -2.5, Notre Dame -5, North Texas -1.5, Auburn -3, Colorado -4.5, Georgia Tech -2, Houston -3, Alabama -3, Colorado State -2, Mississippi State -2, Akron -2.5, Georgia State -3, Texas Tech -2, FAU -3.5, Maryland -2, Michigan State -5, Louisiana -2, Miami (FL) -3, Missouri -2, Northwestern -2.5, Hawaii -2.5, Fresno State -8 (Haener/Williams inj), San Diego State -2, NC State -3, Arizona State -2, Boston College -2, Utah State -2
Some notes on the big movers:
Fresno State -8: Jake Haener is worth a ton to this team and the line. His high ankle sprain will keep him out for a while and Logan Fife takes over. He has 25 career pass attempts to his name. The Bulldogs also lost star safety Evan Williams, so two leaders will be out for the foreseeable future.
UNLV + 5.5: The Runnin’ Rebels look like a different team to this point and I gave them a big boost in my power ratings. I’m not sure if this is too much or not enough, but after thrashing North Texas when I had the Mean Green favored, an adjustment was absolutely necessary.
Georgia Southern + 5: A little bit of a catch-up here, even though Georgia Southern lost to UAB. The Eagles actually outgained the Blazers in the game (albeit on 20 more plays), but went -3 in turnover margin to lose by 14. It was still another good offensive performance with 6.5 yards per carry on the ground.
Notre Dame -5: Maybe the Fighting Irish figured some things out in the second half, but it was another lackluster performance against a Cal team that barely beat UNLV the week prior. My Notre Dame line is a touch heavy on UNC this week, so I may have overadjusted, but I don’t want to bet on this team anyway.
Michigan State -5: Sparty was viewed as a regression candidate coming into this season and that appears to be happening. Payton Thorne hasn’t looked as effective without Kenneth Walker and the Spartans really played an awful first half against Washington. I was also 6.5 points off on that closing line and I was wrong on both teams, so I made adjustments to both.
Kansas + 4.5: Lance Leipold might be the best coach in the country for what he’s done with the Jayhawks this season. This offense is dynamic, which we haven’t been able to say since Todd Reesing and Mark Mangino were rock stars in Lawrence.
Colorado -4.5: Wyoming beat Air Force. Air Force pummeled Colorado. How bad are the Buffaloes? By the way, if you want to feel old, Josh McCown’s kid went 4-for-7 for 52 yards for Colorado this past Saturday.
Washington + 4: Kalen DeBoer has sold me. The Huskies, who had a top-25 defense last season, now have the offense to match it. I’ve moved UDub up more than a touchdown in my PRs since the start of the season.
Alabama -3: The Crimson Tide let out some frustration on Louisiana Monroe, but only had 13 completed passes in the 63-7 rout. It’s cool that they ran for seven yards per carry, but Jahmyr Gibbs was the leading receiver yet again. That’s not cool.
Here are my Week 4 spreads:
|
Date
|
Away
|
Home
|
My Line
|
|
9/22
|
West Virginia
|
Virginia Tech
|
-3
|
|
|
Coastal Carolina
|
Georgia State
|
+ 3.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9/23
|
Virginia
|
Syracuse
|
-12.5
|
|
|
Nevada
|
Air Force
|
-25.5
|
|
|
Boise State
|
UTEP
|
+ 16.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9/24
|
Baylor
|
Iowa State
|
-2.5
|
|
|
Northern Illinois
|
Kentucky
|
-21.5
|
|
|
Charlotte
|
South Carolina
|
-22
|
|
|
UMass
|
Temple
|
-12
|
|
|
Kent State
|
Georgia
|
-47.5
|
|
|
Notre Dame
|
North Carolina
|
-3.5
|
|
|
Middle Tennessee
|
Miami (FL)
|
-26.5
|
|
|
Maryland
|
Michigan
|
-17.5
|
|
|
UConn
|
NC State
|
-35.5
|
|
|
Central Michigan
|
Penn State
|
-22.5
|
|
|
Georgia Tech
|
UCF
|
-19
|
|
|
South Florida
|
Louisville
|
-11.5
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
Michigan State
|
-2.5
|
|
|
Clemson
|
Wake Forest
|
+ 11
|
|
|
Wisconsin
|
Ohio State
|
-18
|
|
|
Akron
|
Liberty
|
-26.5
|
|
|
Boston College
|
Florida State
|
-14.5*
|
|
|
Florida
|
Tennessee
|
-12
|
|
|
Indiana
|
Cincinnati
|
-18.5
|
|
|
Navy
|
East Carolina
|
-16.5
|
|
|
Ball State
|
Georgia Southern
|
-12.5
|
|
|
Buffalo
|
Eastern Michigan
|
-7
|
|
|
James Madison
|
App State
|
-9.5
|
|
|
Iowa
|
Rutgers
|
+ 5.5
|
|
|
Duke
|
Kansas
|
-7
|
|
|
Miami (OH)
|
Northwestern
|
-5
|
|
|
Arkansas State
|
Old Dominion
|
-8
|
|
|
UCLA
|
Colorado
|
+ 22
|
|
|
Wyoming
|
BYU
|
-25
|
|
|
Hawaii
|
New Mexico State
|
-5.5
|
|
|
Utah
|
Arizona State
|
+ 14
|
|
|
USC
|
Oregon State
|
+ 6
|
|
|
Toledo
|
San Diego State
|
+ 1
|
|
|
Oregon
|
Washington State
|
+ 10
|
|
|
Arizona
|
Cal
|
-1.5
|
|
|
Stanford
|
Washington
|
-14
|
|
|
Marshall
|
Troy
|
+ 2.5
|
|
|
Louisiana Tech
|
South Alabama
|
-9
|
|
|
Bowling Green
|
Mississippi State
|
-27
|
|
|
Kansas State
|
Oklahoma
|
-10
|
|
|
Tulsa
|
Ole Miss
|
-20.5
|
|
|
Vanderbilt
|
Alabama
|
-39
|
|
|
TCU
|
SMU
|
-2.5
|
|
|
Texas
|
Texas Tech
|
+ 10.5
|
|
|
Louisiana
|
UL Monroe
|
+ 11
|
|
|
Arkansas
|
Texas A&M (N-Arlington)
|
+ 0.5
|
|
|
Rice
|
Houston
|
-18.5
|
|
|
North Texas
|
Memphis
|
-11.5
|
|
|
Southern Miss
|
Tulane
|
-14
|
|
|
Missouri
|
Auburn
|
-8
|
|
|
FIU
|
WKU
|
-26.5
|
|
|
UNLV
|
Utah State
|
+ 0.5
|
|
|
FAU
|
Purdue
|
-17.5
|
|
|
New Mexico
|
LSU
|
-27.5
|
|
|
Western Michigan
|
San Jose State
|
-1
|
Games to consider from a power ratings standpoint:
Just as a general note, oddsmakers seem pretty convinced that the MAC is awful. In most of their games against Power Five teams, the lines are a little bit inflated. I’m trying to stay a little more grounded and focus on where I want these teams for conference play, but it is worth noting that fading the MAC is en vogue.
North Carolina + 1 (-3.5) vs. Notre Dame: I tend to think Drake Maye is pretty good, whereas I don’t think the Fighting Irish have a good QB right now. UNC’s defense is worrisome, but are we sure Notre Dame can take advantage? Home-field advantage makes up two points of the line, so I basically have UNC -1.5 on a neutral, but I’m still thinking long and hard about the Heels here.
Clemson -7 (-11) vs. Wake Forest: I guess I haven’t downgraded Clemson enough, but Wake Forest just had its hands full with Liberty and a QB that lost the position battle to Charlie Brewer entering the season. The Demon Deacons defense is suspect, while Clemson’s still looks like a strength. I think this line is more likely to go up than come down.
Georgia Southern -7.5 (-12.5) vs. Ball State: It looks as though maybe I’ve gotten too high on Georgia Southern now. Maybe the play here is over 61.5 instead, seeing as how the Eagles offense has ripped off 523 yards per game this season and 6.35 yards per play. I also think this line is cheap. Ball State has allowed 96 points in two FBS games.
Old Dominion -3.5 (-8.5) vs. Arkansas State: This is the third week in a row that I’ve been low on Arkansas State. Maybe they’re way better than I think. That Memphis game was weird, but the Tigers did have a 177-yard edge and 7.5 YPP to 5.6 for the Red Wolves. That should’ve been a cover and played out much closer to my 19.5 number than the final score of 12.
Oregon -6 (-10) vs. Washington State: I’m willing to overlook the Week 1 shellacking by Georgia when it comes to the Ducks. They easily handled a really good BYU team. Washington State has been very impressive, but Colorado State is terrible and I’m not sure how good Wisconsin is. I think this line goes up to at least a touchdown, maybe more.
Arizona + 6 (+ 1.5) vs. Cal: The Fightin’ Jedd Fisches just beat North Dakota State, who, honestly, is probably a better team than Cal. The box score wasn’t a Picasso by any means, but the Wildcats are clearly much improved. I can’t say the same about Cal.
Texas -4.5 (-10) vs. Texas Tech: I’ve been doing my own power ratings for about a decade and I never seem to have a good number on Texas Tech. But, I’m pretty convinced that this number is low. I realize Hudson Card doesn’t carry the same panache as Quinn Ewers, but Texas bullrushed a really solid UTSA team last week and that impressed me.
I’ll talk about my power ratings and some other notes on Tuesday’s edition of the VSiN College Football Podcast with host Tim Murray. Subscribe and listen HERE.