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Week 4 college football best bets

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

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Week 4 of the college football season is here, with another Saturday of terrific matchups.

Our handicappers Adam Burke, Tim Murray, Wes Reynolds and Scott Seidenberg are here to give you their best bets for the weekend's card.

Overall record: 14-11-2 ATS

Lines are consensus odds from VSiN's college football lines page, as of Wednesday night.

UNLV Rebels at No. 22 Fresno State Bulldogs (-30.5, 58.5)

Burke: The legendary performance from Jake Haener during #Pac12AfterDark in Saturday’s finale against UCLA came at a cost -- the signal-caller that is shooting up NFL draft boards took a beating in that game. It would seem to be in the best interest of Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer to protect his QB at all costs this week.

We should see a pretty basic game plan from Fresno this week, and likely one that includes freshmen QBs Logan Fife and Jaylen Henderson in a huge favorite role against UNLV.

As awesome as Haener has been for a Fresno State squad that ranks fourth in passing yards per game and 13th in yards per attempt, the running game for the Bulldogs has not been able to have much success (Fresno State ranks 87th nationally in yards per carry). This feels like one of those “we need to get the running game going” types of weeks for the Fresno offense.

Speaking of offenses, UNLV’s offense is offensive. Marcus Arroyo is in so far over his head that he hasn’t seen the sun in months. Doug Brumfield is expected to be back this week, but he’s completed 42 percent of his passes and has only scrambled for 4.7 yards per carry on 15 attempts. Cameron Friel and Tate Martell both looked awful last week.

The Rebels rank 127th in yards per play, better than only Navy, UConn and Louisiana-Monroe. Fresno State isn’t just a one-trick pony with a great passing game, as the Bulldogs rank 24th in YPP allowed on defense.

This should be a lopsided win for Fresno State in which a lot of underclassmen get the chance to play and Haener has a light workload.

Pick: Under 58.5

 

Utah State Aggies (+ 9, 65.5) vs. Boise State Broncos

Burke: The incredible turnaround in Logan has been a sight to see, as Utah State has already tripled last season’s win total (the Aggies went 1-5 in six games in 2020 and also saw the dismissal of head coach Gary Andersen). Morale around the program was about as low as it could be, but then Blake Anderson was hired from Arkansas State and a new era of football was ushered in.

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