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Week 3 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

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Week 3 is upon us and with two data points for each team, we are starting to get a better idea of what we can expect. Sometimes betting trends give you an idea of what to expect as well. History repeats itself and that can be true of sports and betting as well.

Let’s take a look at some of those trends for Week 3:

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 51.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cardinals have been very impressive offensively to this point, scoring 72 points in two games. The Jaguars have allowed 60 points in two games, so that is why we have Arizona favored by more than a touchdown on the road. The Cardinals won, but failed to cover last week against Minnesota, as the Vikings missed a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

Jacksonville is 0-2 and has lost by double digits to both Houston and Denver. Things are certainly not going well early on for Urban Meyer.

Trends:

  • Arizona is 9-6 ATS in the last 15 against a team allowing more than 24.5 PPG
  • The Cardinals are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games with travel of 1,000 or more miles
  • The Cardinals are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall
  • The Under is 6-0 in Arizona’s last six as a road favorite
  • The Under is also 9-0 in Arizona’s last nine road games against a QB with five or fewer career starts

 

  • The Jaguars are 11-38-1 ATS in their last 50 games against an NFC opponent
  • That includes a mark of 2-13 ATS at home in their last 15 against the NFC
  • Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in the last six overall
  • The Over is 7-0 in Jacksonville’s last seven games against the NFC West
  • The Over is also 15-3 in Jacksonville’s last 18 against an opponent traveling at least 1,500

More Cardinals and Jaguars ATS and O/U trends

 

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-6, 48)

The status of Carson Wentz looms large in this game, as the Colts are preparing to go with practice squad QB Brett Hundley instead of regular backup Jacob Eason. The Colts are looking to avoid an 0-3 start, which is something that has historically hindered a team’s ability to make the playoffs.

Since 2002, one team that started 0-3 has made the playoffs. There is a lot of pressure on the shorthanded Colts this week and that pressure has pushed this line up to -6. Indianapolis did cover for some and pushed for others last week against the Rams after not covering in Week 1.

The Titans won outright in upset fashion over the Seahawks to move to 1-1 ATS and SU after losing badly to Arizona in Week 1.

Trends:

  • Indianapolis is 8-1-1 ATS playing a team that went to overtime in its previous game
  • The Colts are 18-6-1 ATS in road games against a defense allowing more than 26.5 PPG
  • Indianapolis is 17-8-2 ATS in the last 27 road games against the AFC South
  • The Over is 6-1 in Indianapolis’s last seven road games and 8-2 in the last 10 road games against AFC opponents

 

  • The Titans are just 5-8-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after a win by three or fewer points
  • Tennessee is 19-31 ATS in the last 50 against a team with a losing record
  • The Over is 7-0-1 in Tennessee’s last eight following an ATS win
  • The Over is also 8-1 in Tennessee’s last nine games against a team with a losing record

More Colts and Titans ATS and O/U trends

 

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 50) at Detroit Lions

The Ravens are the last of the big road favorites by rotation number this week after getting a large monkey off of their backs last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. The win moved Baltimore to 1-1, which is the same record as the other three teams in the AFC North. It also moved the Ravens to 1-1 ATS.

The Lions snuck in the backdoor for some bettors and pushed for others in Week 1, but never really had a chance of covering in Week 2. Detroit is 0-2 SU and staring down the barrel of a 0-3 start in a third straight game as more than a touchdown underdog.

Trends:

  • The Ravens are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 road games against a defensive team allowing more than 24.5 PPG
  • Baltimore has not experienced many letdowns. After a close win of three or fewer points, the Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games
  • The Ravens are 16-7-2 in their last 25 Sunday games
  • Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games overall
  • The Under is 7-3 in Baltimore’s last 10 games after playing Sunday Night Football

 

  • Detroit is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September
  • The Lions are 14-21-1 ATS in their last 36 home games after a SU loss
  • The Lions are also only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog
  • The Over is 8-1 in Detroit’s last nine games following a SU loss and 6-1 in Detroit’s last seven games following an ATS loss

More Ravens and Lions ATS and O/U trends

 

Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 46)

The Washington Football Team hits the road for the first time and will do so as a touchdown or more underdog against the Buffalo Bills. Washington narrowly knocked off the Giants on Thursday Night Football last week, so extra rest is a factor this week. The WFT has failed to cover in either game, but sits at 1-1 in the standings.

The Bills covered last week against the Dolphins after losing outright as a favorite in Week 1 to the Steelers. Buffalo won 35-0 last week, but the box score wasn’t exactly indicative of a dominant offensive performance.

Trends:

  • Washington is 3-1 ATS with a rest advantage the last four times that has happened
  • The WFT is just 1-4 ATS in the last five games, but 5-1 ATS in the last six as an underdog
  • Washington is 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 against AFC opponents
  • The Over is 15-10 in the last 25 for Washington as an underdog of more than seven points
  • The Under is 6-2 in Washington’s last eight games overall

 

  • Buffalo is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games, including 6-2 in the last eight as a favorite
  • The Bills are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games after playing Miami
  • The Bills are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against the NFC
  • Buffalo is 8-2 to the Over in the last 10 against an opponent coming off of Thursday Night Football
  • The Bills are also 8-2 to the Over in their last 10 at home against an NFC opponent

More Washington and Bills ATS and O/U trends

 

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3, 42.5)

The Saints have played one great game and one poor game this season, with a win and cover against Green Bay in Week 1 and a loss to the Panthers in Week 2. We’ll have to wait and see which version of Jameis Winston we get in this one.

Mac Jones has been impressive thus far for the Patriots, even though New England is just 1-1 straight up and against the spread. This line was a pick-em prior to last week’s results, so an adjustment plus some respected money seems to be backing Bill Belichick this week.

Trends:

  • The Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss
  • New Orleans is 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games with at least 1,000 miles of travel
  • The Saints are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against the AFC East and 5-2 in those games on the road
  • New Orleans is on a 5-0 run to the Under
  • The Saints are 5-2 to the Under in their last seven road games

 

  • The Patriots are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite
  • They are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite overall
  • New England is on a 28-11-3 run as a home favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Patriots are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 home games
  • The Under is also 6-1 in New England’s last seven at home against an NFC opponent

More Saints and Patriots ATS and O/U trends

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5)

This line moved back up to a full 7 on Thursday, as the Chiefs look to bounce back from a loss to the Ravens. Kansas City continues to be allergic to covering spreads and also now sits at 1-1 SU with a win over the Browns and that loss to Baltimore.

The Chargers are 1-1 as well after squandering several opportunities against the Cowboys in Week 2. Los Angeles did cover and win at Washington in Week 1, but came up short in both departments in Week 2.

Trends:

  • The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against Kansas City
  • The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 road games
  • Six of the last 10 games between the LA Chargers and Kansas City have gone Over the total

 

  • The Chiefs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite
  • Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in the last nine games after playing Baltimore
  • The Chiefs are in a revenge spot and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven in that role
  • The Over is 7-0 in Kansas City’s last seven games as a home favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Over is also 4-1 in KC’s last five against AFC West opponents

More Chargers and Chiefs ATS and O/U trends

 

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3, 47.5)

The Falcons have looked awful to this point, losing by 26 to the Eagles and 23 to the Buccaneers. The Giants haven’t been favored a lot recently, but this line is very indicative of the state of the Falcons in the early going. Atlanta is 0-2 SU and ATS by a pretty wide margin.

The Giants covered, but failed to score the upset against Washington in Week 2. New York fell short straight up and against the spread in Week 1. The Giants have not been favored often, but have done well against other teams with losing records of late.

Trends:

  • Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in the last five games as a road underdog
  • The Falcons are 6-1 ATS against an opponent that just lost straight up the previous week
  • Atlanta is 13-17-1 after losing by 20 or more points
  • The Under is 5-10 in the last 15 games when Atlanta’s opponent has more than six days rest

 

  • The Giants are 18-7-1 in their last 26 games against a team with a losing record
  • The Giants are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against NFC opponents
  • The Giants are 10-1-1 in their last 12 games after playing on Thursday
  • The Under is 9-1 in New York’s last 10 home games
  • The Under is also 8-1-1 in the last 10 with head coach Joe Judge

     

More Falcons and Giants ATS and O/U trends

 

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 45)

Justin Fields has officially been named the starting QB for the Bears as the former Ohio State Buckeye returns to the state. Clevelanders have taken the Buckeyes as their own, but it may not matter to the Dawg Pound and those that fill FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday.

The Bears are 1-1 straight up and covered for a lot of late bettors last week in the win over the Bengals. Chicago came nowhere close to covering in Week 1. The Browns did cover in Week 1 against the Chiefs, but never got outside the number in Week 2 as a big favorite against the Texans.

Trends:

  • Chicago is 2-6 ATS in the last eight games as an underdog
  • The Bears are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road
  • The Bears are 16-20-1 ATS in their last 37 against AFC opponents
  • The Under is 24-16-1 in road non-conference games over the last 41 games for Chicago

 

  • Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS in the last five games as a home favorite
  • The Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC North
  • The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games against a team allowing fewer than 3.75 yards per carry
  • The Over is 6-1 in the last seven games with a total of 45 or more for Cleveland

More Bears and Browns ATS and O/U trends

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43)

The news that Ben Roethlisberger is less than 100 percent continued what was already a declining spread for this game. The Steelers were in the -4.5 range when the Ben news broke and now the line sits painted at -3 across the market. Pittsburgh did score a very impressive win over Buffalo in Week 1, but bettors seem to have a short memory after last week’s loss at home to the Raiders

The Bengals were very popular in the betting markets last week, but failed to cover against the Bears. Cincinnati did win outright and cover in Week 1. Both teams are tied for first in the AFC North at 1-1 with the same record as both Cleveland and Baltimore.

Trends:

  • Cincinnati is 16-7-2 ATS in the last 25 road games in September
  • The Bengals are just 9-20 ATS against Mike Tomlin as the head coach of the Steelers
  • That includes a 4-14 ATS mark in games played in Pittsburgh
  • The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS loss
  • The Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight against the AFC North
  • The Under is 21-4 in the last 25 for the Bengals against a pass defense allowing more than 6.75 yards per pass attempt

 

  • Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in the last five as a favorite and 0-4 ATS as a home favorite in that span
  • The Steelers are 52-42-6 ATS in their last 100 games against the AFC North
  • Pittsburgh is 6-2-1 to the Under in the last nine games as a favorite
  • The Steelers are 34-25-3 to the Over in their last 62 games against AFC North foes

More Bengals and Steelers ATS and O/U trends

 

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-4, 44)

Derek Carr remains questionable, but we know that Tua Tagovailoa is out and Jacoby Brissett is in for this week’s game. The line adjusted quickly from last week’s results after the Raiders scored the most impressive win of the weekend over the Steelers and the Dolphins were throttled by the Bills.

Miami is 1-1 SU and ATS and the Raiders are 2-0 SU and ATS with a couple of upset wins. They’ll be favored for the first time this season in this one.

Trends:

  • Miami is 6-0 ATS in the last six games following a SU loss
  • The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog
  • The Dolphins have gone just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 after losing by 20 or more points
  • Miami is 31-14-1 ATS in the last 46 games against the AFC West
  • The last seven road games in September for Miami have all gone Over
  • The Under is 5-14 in the last 19 road games after playing Buffalo for the Dolphins

 

  • The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite
  • Las Vegas is 9-6 ATS in the last 15 against the AFC
  • The Over is 5-0 in the Raiders last five home games
  • The Over is 7-1 in the last eight against the AFC

More Dolphins and Raiders ATS and O/U trends

 

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 41.5)

The Jets are the biggest underdogs on the board as they head to Denver to take on the Broncos. The Broncos are 18-3 SU in their last 21 home openers, but that has no bearing on whether or not Denver can cover laying double digits. It seems like bettors do prefer the Jets side, thinking that this line is a little bit too high.

The Jets are 0-2 SU and ATS and have been outscored 44-20 in the process. The Broncos are one of two AFC teams at 2-0 and they’ve covered in both of those wins.

Trends:

  • The Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games
  • They are also 9-30-3 ATS in their last 42 games against an opponent averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry
  • The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last nine road games against AFC West opponents
  • New York is also 6-16-4 in the last 26 games with travel of 1,000 miles or more
  • The Under is 8-1 in the last nine for the Jets against a team with a winning record

 

  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in the last five as a favorite
  • The Broncos are actually just 17-31-1 at home in their last 49 games against a team averaging more than 16.6 yards per point
  • Denver is 7-3 to the Under in the last 10 and 5-2 to the Under in the last seven as a home favorite

More Jets and Broncos ATS and O/U trends

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 55.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The game of the week in the NFL is this one between the Buccaneers and the Rams. It will draw a huge betting handle and a lot of interest, but a lot of the interest so far looks to be on the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won and covered comfortably last week against the Falcons, but failed to cover and almost failed to win on Week 1 against Dallas.

The Rams pushed for some and lost for others in last week’s win over the Colts. Los Angeles is 2-0 on the season with a comfortable cover over the Bears and that close game against Indy. Los Angeles opened a favorite here, but that was a short-lived favorite role.

Trends:

  • Tampa Bay is 11-2-2 ATS in the last 15 Sunday games
  • The Buccaneers are 8-2 in their last 10 on the road against a team with a win percentage of 80 percent or higher
  • The Bucs are 5-1-1 in the last seven games against opponents that average at least 24 PPG
  • Tampa Bay is 11-4 to the Over in the last 15 road games against an NFC opponent
  • The Bucs are 19-6 to the Over in their last 25 road Sunday games

 

  • The Rams are 11-2 ATS immediately after an ATS loss
  • Los Angeles is 0-7-1 in the last eight games as a home underdog
  • The Under is 8-1 in the last nine home games for the Rams
  • The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 against a team traveling at least 1,000 miles

More Buccaneers and Rams ATS and O/U trends

 

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 55) at Minnesota Vikings

The Seahawks suffered a tough loss last week against the Titans and now travel about two-thirds of the way across the country in hopes of getting a bounce back win. For the second straight week, the Vikings suffered a devastating loss, so they’ll try to avoid falling to 0-3 and having virtually no shot at the playoffs.

Seattle won and covered in Week 1 against Indianapolis, but did not win or cover against Tennessee. The Vikings have not covered yet in two tries. This does look like it has the makings of a sharp vs. public split, so that merits watching.

Trends:

  • Seattle is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against a team with a losing record
  • The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite
  • The Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson tandem is only 5-10 ATS in the last 15 games
  • The Under is 12-5 in Seattle’s last 17 games as a road favorite

 

  • The Vikings are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games
  • However, Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 after a close loss of three or fewer points
  • The Vikings are 19-6 ATS in the last 25 games at home against teams scoring 25 or more PPG
  • Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 as a home underdog of seven or fewer points
  • The Over is 8-1 in Minnesota’s last nine home games
  • The Over is also 12-2-1 in Minnesota’s last 15 games with a total of 45 or higher

More Seahawks and Vikings ATS and O/U trends

 

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 50.5)

The Packers did what they needed to do on Monday Night Football and had a workmanlike win over the Lions. They just kept adding on and never really broke a sweat in the second half. It was a nice win to get back to .500, both straight up and against the spread after a horrible Week 1 showing.

The 49ers let the Lions in the backdoor in Week 1, but slammed it shut for the Eagles in Week 2. San Francisco is 2-0 and 1-1 ATS going into Sunday Night Football against the Packers.

Trends:

  • Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 against a team with a winning record
  • The Packers are 18-7-1 playing on less than six days rest in their last 26 games in that role
  • The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against NFC foes
  • Green Bay is 120-86-6 ATS all-time with Aaron Rodgers as the starting QB
  • The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay’s last six games
  • The Over is also 17-8 in Green Bay’s last 25 road games in September

 

  • The 49ers are 9-16 ATS in their last 25 as a favorite of seven or fewer points
  • San Francisco is only 5-9-1 ATS in the last 15 games against a team off of Monday Night Football
  • The Over is 27-12 in the last 39 against teams averaging fewer than 3.9 yards per carry

More Packers and 49ers ATS and O/U trends

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 51.5)

Two NFC East foes rekindle their rivalry on Monday Night Football with the Eagles and the Cowboys. Dallas has covered twice and could very well be 2-0 after a strong showing against the Buccaneers in Week 1. This is a bit of a step down in class for Dallas after playing Tampa Bay and the LA Chargers to open the season.

The Eagles had a blowout win in the Battle of the Birds against the Falcons, but then came up short against the 49ers, scoring only 11 points in the process. Philadelphia is 1-1 and in a three-way tie atop the NFC East. This could be a huge tiebreaker game down the line for the winner, even if it is only Week 3.

Trends:

  • The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games
  • Philadelphia is 31-19 ATS in the last 50 road games against an opponent with more than six days rest
  • The Eagles are 40-27-1 in the last 68 on the road against the NFC East
  • The Under is 8-2 in Philadelphia’s last 10 games as an underdog of seven or fewer points

 

  • Dallas is on a nice 5-1 ATS run overall, but has gone just 1-7 ATS in the last eight as a favorite
  • To add on, the Cowboys are also 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite of seven or fewer points
  • The Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 12 Monday Night Football games at home
  • The Over is 12-3 in Dallas’s last 15 games against the NFC
  • The Over is also 8-2 in the last 10 with a total of 45 or higher

More Eagles and Cowboys ATS and O/U trends

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