Week 3 NFL betting report: Bettor loses $500K on Daniel Jones prop

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 


It was another wild weekend of wagering in the NFL, as sportsbooks bounced back from a rough Week 2. Overs continued to hit at a historic clip, as they were 20-12 entering Week 3 and overs went 7-1 in the early games. However, four of the five afternoon games went under the total, making totals 29-18 to the Over on the season. Favorites are 8-7 against the spread heading into Monday Night Football.

Here is a look at how the books did, along with an ATS recap of every NFL game.

Book report

“Handle was much larger on sides than totals, but there was only one game [Packers-Saints] in which we took more money on the under than the over,” Borgata Sportsbook director Thomas Gable said.

The biggest bet of the day came at DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey, as the book two huge wagers on the New York Giants:

  • $500,000 on the Giants + 4
  • $500,000 on Daniel Jones Over 244.5 passing yards

Respected money came in on New York, pushing the line all down to New York -3 on Sunday; it opened 49ers -6.5 on the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lookahead line. The game didn’t go well for the two bettors above – or the respected money. The Giants finished with only 231 yards of total offense, Jones finished with 179 yards passing and Giants never led, losing 36-9. San Francisco held ball for over 39 minutes of the game.

As ESPN’s David Purdum reported, teams that attracted sharp action at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook were the Rams, Texans, Giants, Bears, Colts and Ravens. Sharps were on both sides of Bengals-Eagles. Excluding the Eagles game, those teams were 2-3 ATS heading into Monday Night Football.

It’s just not the Atlanta Falcons’ season, apparently. The Falcons, 3-point favorites, blew another double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, this time to the Chicago Bears and fell 30-26. According to ESPN Stats & Information, no team had blown multiple 15-point fourth-quarter leads in a single season. The Falcons just did it in back-to-back weeks.

The game drew the highest handle at the Borgata Sportsbook in New Jersey and was the book’s biggest decision of the day. “We took a $100,000 bet on the Bears moneyline at 120, which obviously ended up costing us money,” Gable said. “The other big decision for us [which went against us] was the Jets-Colts.”

It was the most-bet game at PointsBet sportsbooks, which also had 70% of the point-spread money on the Falcons, and game with the third-highest handle. The Bears winning was one of the biggest positive decisions for Stations Casinos in the early games, according to sportsbook director Chuck Esposito.

The Bears were 33-1 underdogs on the moneyline at MGM books to start the fourth quarter. There were no notable bets on the Bears at that price. One BetMGM bettor lost a $110,000 wager on Falcons -3.5 that had been placed on Friday.

Another big decision at several sportsbooks was the Las Vegas Raiders-New England Patriots game. The Patriots, 7-point favorites, had over 74% of the spread money at PointsBet and FanDuel and produced the worst morning result of any game for Stations Casinos in Vegas. New England controlled the game throughout and won 36-20, easily covering the spread. It was the second-biggest handle game at Borgata.

Respected money on the Eagles pushed the spread of the Cincinnati Bengals-Philadelphia Eagles game up Sunday morning, as it went from Philadelphia -4.5 up to 5.5, with 80% of the money at PointsBet on the Eagles.

“The Bengals and 49ers were also good morning games for us, players did well on the Browns and Steelers,” Esposito said. “Overall, probably the best Sunday of the three so far heading into tonight.”

In the afternoon games, the Detroit Lions (+ 5) winning 26-23 over the Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers (+ 6) beating the Los Angeles Chargers 21-16 helped books. Over 87% of spread tickets and 91% of money-line wagers at Rush Street Gaming books were on the Cardinals, the second-most of any game. The Tampa Bay Bucs (-6) covering – and winning -- against the Denver Broncos was the most popular bet at Rush Street books, with 90% of spread tickets on the Bucs.

The Indianapolis Colts (-11.5) were another popular public play, with 68% of the money on Indianapolis to cover at William Hill books. They also took their biggest ML bet of the day: $52,000 on Colts ML at -700 odds. That bet was really never in doubt.

The Sunday night game between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints was another bad game for the books. “For SNF, the book surprisingly is rooting for the Saints,” PointsBet director of communications Patrick Eichner said in an email. “We are seeing the Packers attract nearly 67% of the ML bets and some interest in play.”

“Sunday night, we’re definitely rooting for the Saints and the under,” Gable noted.

The Packers won 37-30 and the game flew over the total of 52.


ATS recaps

THURSDAY: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 49)

The Dolphins jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back, as Miami was the clear right-side winner despite being a short road underdog ( 125 on the money line). Ryan Fitzpatrick completed his first 12 passes and finished 18-for-20 for 160 yards and two TDs (he ran for another) and the Dolphins were in control throughout. Gardner Minshew didn’t throw any TD passes as the game came up short of the Over/Under.

Final score: Dolphins 31, Jaguars 13

ATS winner: Dolphins

Total: Under 49

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-7, 47)

The Patriots led just 13-10 at halftime but then outscored the Raiders 10-0 in the third quarter. The Raiders were still within a TD of covering at 23-13 midway through the fourth quarter, but New England RB Rex Burkhead scored his third TD of the game to put the Pats up 29-13. It looked like the game might stay Under the total, even when Derek Carr was ruled to be sacked for a safety, but replay overturned the call to a fumble recovery and TD for New England’s Deatrich Wise Jr. to put it Over at 36-13. As usual, the Patriots were a popular favorite, especially off a loss, as they were bet from -6 to -7.

Final score: Patriots 36, Raiders 20

ATS winner: Patriots

Total: Over 47

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2, 46.5)

The Bills jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead and Josh Allen (24-for 33, 311 yards, four TD passes and another rushing) hit Stefon Diggs on a 4-yard TD pass to make it 28-3 with 8:05 left in the third quarter, but then the Rams stormed back with three TD passes by Jared Goff before Darell Henderson’s 1-yard TD run gave them a 32-28 lead with 4:30 remaining. However, Allen led the winning drive (aided by a defensive pass interference penalty), capped off by a 3-yard TD pass to Tyler Kroft. Tyler Bass’ PAT officially gave the Bills the cover.

Final score: Bills 35, Rams 32

ATS winner: Bills

Total: Over 46.5

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 46.5)

This was a back-and-forth battle as the Steelers led 3-0, the Texans went up 14-3, the Steelers rallied to take a 17-14 lead and then the Texans regained a 21-17 lead just before halftime. But the Steelers’ defense dominated in the second half, shutting out the Texans the rest of the way. Chris-Boswell’s 26-yard FG pulled the Steelers within 21-20 in the third quarter and then they took the lead for good on James Conner’s 12-yard TD run with 6:24 to play. That score both gave Pittsburgh the cover but also put it Over 46.5 at 26-21 before the two-point conversion made the final score 28-21.

Final score: Steelers 28, Texans 21

ATS winner: Steelers

Total: Over 46.5

San Francisco 49ers (-3, 43.5) at New York Giants

Believe it or not, the Giants were a popular underdog as this line was bet down from 49ers -4.5 during the week with all the reports of San Fran’s injuries and Nick Mullens starting for Jimmy Garoppolo. After each team kicked two FGs, Jerick McKinnon’s 10-yard TD run put the 49ers ahead for good with 1:07 before halftime and all Mullens did was go 25-for-36 for 343 yards and a TD. While the spread result wasn’t in much doubt, the game didn’t go Over the relatively low total until Jeff Wilson Jr. scored his second TD on a 2-yard run with 3:35 to play.

Final score: 49ers 36, Giants 9

ATS winner: 49ers

Total: Over 43.5

Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 49) at Minnesota Vikings

This was as close as you’d expect from a game with a 2.5-point road favorite. The Vikings led 24-12 after Justin Jefferson’s 71-yard TD pass from Kirk Cousins with 8:04 left in the third quarter, but the Titans took a 25-24 lead after two Derrick Henry 1-yard TD runs. The Vikings regained the lead at 30-25 on Cousins’ 3-yard TD pass to Kyle Rudolph with 10:17 to play, but Stephen Gostkowski booted 54- and 55-yard field goals (giving him six FGs in the game) in the closing minutes to pull out the 31-30 victory, though the Titans didn’t cover.

Final score: Titans 31, Vikings 30

ATS winner: Vikings

Total: Over 49

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-7, 44.5)

Washington actually led this game 7-0 and again at 20-17 at the end of the third quarter. However, the Browns took the lead for good on Baker Mayfield’s second TD pass and Nick Chubb’s second TD run and won and covered. The stats were nearly equal between these two teams as Washington outgained Cleveland 309-300 and each team had 19 first downs, but the difference was Washington turned the ball over five times to Cleveland’s zero.

Final score: Browns 34, Washington 20

ATS winner: Browns

Total: Over 44.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 47)

Both teams entered 0-2 looking for their first win … and neither got it. After a scoreless first quarter, the Eagles took a 13-10 halftime lead on Carson Wentz’s 29-yard TD pass to Greg Ward. After Jake Elliott kicked his third FG to put the Eagles up 16-10, Joe Burrow (31-for-44, 312 yards, 2 TDs) led the Bengals to a 23-16 lead with 3:05 to play. However, Wentz answered with an 11-play, 75-yard drive capped by his 7-yard TD run to tie the game with :21 left in regulation. Over bettors thought they had a winner when it went to OT -- and Under bettors thought they had a “Bad Beat” -- but no scoring in the extra session left the game Under. Cincy backers cashed on the underdog while all money-line wagers were refunded with no straight-up winner.

Final score: Bengals 23, Eagles 23 (OT, tie)

ATS winner: Bengals

Total: Under 47

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 46)

Another Falcons lead, another Falcons collapse. It wasn’t as stunning as the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots or even the 40-39 loss to the Cowboys last week, but the Falcons led the Bears 26-10 with 9:58 left in the third quarter. Nick Foles, in relief of Mitchell Trubisky, threw three fourth-quarter TD passes (and had two others overturned on replay) to lead the Bears to the 30-26 upset at 120 on the money line, the only outright upset of the early Sunday games. The game also went Over 46.

Final score: Bears 30, Falcons 26

ATS winner: Bears

Total: Over 46

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5, 44)

The Jets tied this game 7-7 on Sam Darnold’s 16-yard TD pass to Braxton Berrios with 5:12 left in the first quarter, but that was it for Jets highlights. The stats for the game weren’t as lopsided as the score indicates as Philip Rivers passed for one TD and rookie RB Jonathan Taylor ran for another, but the Colts’ defense also outscored the Jets 16-7 as Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie returned Darnold INTs for TDs while Justin Houston also sacked Darnold for a safety. The game stayed just Under the total of 44 points.

Final score: Colts 36, Jets 7

ATS winner: Colts

Total: Under 44

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6, 43.5)

The long-time saying during the Philip Rivers era was to fade the Chargers as favorites, and they let down backers in that role as the Panthers pulled the 21-16 outright upset at 235 on the money line -- and a week-high 44 contestants were eliminated in Circa Survivor by taking the Bolts.

The Chargers actually outgained the Panthers 436 yards to 302, but committed four turnovers as the Panthers grinded out the win with five FGs by Joey Slye and just one touchdown, a 13-yard TD pass from Teddy Bridgewater to backup RB Mike Davis. The Panthers led 21-10 early in the fourth quarter before the Chargers made a game of it at 21-16 on Justin Herbert’s 14-yard TD pass to Keenan Allen. Herbert drove his team from its own 1-yard line to the Panthers’ 28-yard line. On the final play of the game, they almost pulled off a hook-and-ladder play as Herbert completed a pass to Allen, but Allen’s lateral to Austin Ekeler was behind him and the Panthers fell on the ball to end the game. 

Final score: Panthers 21, Chargers 16

ATS winner: Panthers

Total: Under 43.5

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-5, 55.5)

Detroit was covering the whole game, and it had the feel that the Lions would fold like they usually do. But they didn’t. The Cardinals took a 23-20 lead with :35 left in the third quarter on Kyler Murray’s second TD pass to Andy Isabella, but while Murray had 270 passing yards to go with those two TDs, he also threw three INTs to keep the Lions in the game and they tied it 23-23 on Matt Prater’s 35-yard FG with 6:44 to play. Detroit then won it on Prater’s 39-yard FG as time expired to help backers taking the Lions 195 on the money line.

Final score: Lions 26, Cardinals 23

ATS winner: Lions

Total: Under 55.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 42.5) at Denver Broncos

In a game where Denver backers were hoping the Broncos D would keep them in the game, it was the Buccaneers that had the better defense, holding Denver to just 226 yards and 10 points while also registering a safety. Special teams blocked a punt to set up Tom Brady with a short field as he hit Chris Godwin with a 10-yard TD pass to cap a three-play, 10-yard drive just over five minutes into the game. The closest the Broncos got was 10-3 as Brady threw two TD passes to Mike Evans in the second quarter to give the Bucs a comfortable 23-3, and they coasted from there.

Final score: Buccaneers 28, Broncos 10

ATS winner: Buccaneers

Total: Under 42.5

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 57)

Russell Wilson threw 5 TD passes and has an NFL-record 14 through three weeks, but this game still came down to the wire. The Seahawks took a 30-15 lead early in the third quarter on Wilson’s fourth TD pass, a 1-yarder to Jacob Hollister, but Dak Prescott rallied the Cowboys with a pair of 42-yard TD passes to Cedrick Wilson and Michael Gallup. A 42-yard FG by Greg Zuerlein put the Cowboys ahead 31-30 with 3:59 remaining, but Wilson hit DK Metcalf for a 29-yard TD with 1:47 left to get the win and cover. The cover came down to the 2-point conversion, which Wilson converted to Hollister after a roughing-the-passer penalty gave him a second try.

Final score: Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31

ATS winner: Seahawks

Total: Over 57


Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52)

It was yet another back-and-forth battle to conclude Sunday’s action. The game was tied 20-20 late in the third quarter when Aaron Rodgers hit Marcedes Lewis with a 18-yard TD pass but then Drew Brees responded with a 52-yarder to Alvin Kamara before the quarter ended and tie it 27-27, and putting it Over 52 points with a quarter to spare. Mason Crosby’s 49-yard FG gave the Packers a 30-27 lead with 8:47 left and then Rodgers increased it to 37-27 at the two-minute warning with a 1-yard TD pass to Robert Tonyan. Will Lutz kicked a 34-yard FG with :32 to play, but the onside kick failed as Packer backers also cashed at 145 on the money line.

Final score: Packers 37, Saints 30

ATS winner: Packers

Total: Over 52

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