Week 3 college football power ratings and game spreads

Overreaction week has arrived in college football. Week 3 lines show a significant amount of recency bias based on what has happened to this point, especially the results that we just saw this past weekend. I have some big discrepancies between my lines and the market lines this week on teams like Washington State, Iowa, South Alabama and Florida.

Truthfully, this is the toughest part of the season to do power ratings. An internal debate rages on because you want to react to what you’ve seen, but you also spent a lot of time in the preseason studying these teams and two games simply may not tell that much of a story. On the other hand, the sportsbooks are obviously forced to adjust and they’re going to have to consider market sentiment, while also trying to not get burned by being too low or too high on a team.

Furthermore, we’re also still in the nonconference portion of the season for a lot of teams. Teams are jumping up a few weight classes from one week to the next or become a heavyweight taking on a featherweight. The wide range of opponents and outcomes makes this that much more challenging.

Finding that delicate balance is very tough to do, so you have to put together your numbers and then decide if you want to fire early in the week or wait to gather more information. For me, there are a few games that I like, but there are also other games where I really want to see where the line ends up. Before I get to those, a quick refresher…

My power ratings updates follow a three-step process. I compare my line to the closing line, study the box score and then crowdsource for injury information. I got a question from a reader last week about how to minimize overreaction and the best way to do that is by comparing your line to the closing line and then looking at how a game played out. Some teams may be as good or as bad as they’ve looked. Other teams won’t be. It’s up to each individual to decide which bucket a team falls into.

Here are my Week 3 Power Ratings:

 

Rank	Team	Conference	PR	HFA
1	Alabama	SEC	99.5	3.5
2	Georgia	SEC	97.5	3.5
3	Ohio State	Big Ten	93.5	3.5
4	Michigan	Big Ten	89	3
5	Clemson	ACC	87.5	3.5
6	Tennessee	SEC	85.5	2.5
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	83.5	3.5
8	Miami (FL)	ACC	83.5	2.5
9	USC	Pac-12	83.5	2
10	Oklahoma State	Big 12	83	3
11	Utah	Pac-12	83	3.5
12	Arkansas	SEC	83	2
13	Texas A&M	SEC	82.5	3.5
14	Michigan State	Big Ten	81.5	2
15	Ole Miss	SEC	81	2
16	Mississippi State	SEC	81	2.5
17	Texas	Big 12	80.5	2
18	BYU	Independent	80	2
19	NC State	ACC	80	3
20	Cincinnati	AAC	80	3.5
21	Wisconsin	Big Ten	79	2
22	Kentucky	SEC	79	2
23	Penn State	Big Ten	78.5	2.5
24	Oregon	Pac-12	78.5	3
25	Kansas State	Big 12	78.5	2
26	Notre Dame	Independent	78	3.5
27	Baylor	Big 12	77	2
28	UCLA	Pac-12	77	2
29	Iowa State	Big 12	77	2.5
30	Maryland	Big Ten	76.5	2
31	Florida	SEC	76	3
32	Minnesota	Big Ten	76	2
33	Florida State	ACC	76	2
34	Oregon State	Pac-12	76	2
35	Washington	Pac-12	76	2
36	Auburn	SEC	75	3
37	TCU	Big 12	75	2
38	LSU	SEC	75	2.5
39	UCF	AAC	74.5	3.5
40	Louisville	ACC	74.5	2
41	North Carolina	ACC	74.5	2
42	Fresno State	Mountain West	74	2.5
43	Purdue	Big Ten	74	2
44	Wake Forest	ACC	74	2.5
45	Air Force	Mountain West	73.5	2.5
46	Pitt	ACC	73	2
47	South Carolina	SEC	73	2
48	SMU	AAC	72.5	3.5
49	Iowa	Big Ten	72	3
50	Texas Tech	Big 12	72	2
51	Houston	AAC	71.5	2
52	Boise State	Mountain West	71.5	2.5
53	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	71.5	3.5
54	Syracuse	ACC	71.5	2
55	Illinois	Big Ten	70.5	1.5
56	East Carolina	AAC	70.5	1.5
57	Virginia Tech	ACC	70.5	2
58	Nebraska	Big Ten	69.5	1.5
59	West Virginia	Big 12	69.5	2.5
60	Missouri	SEC	69	2.5
61	UTSA	Conference USA	69	2
62	Arizona State	Pac-12	68.5	2.5
63	Marshall	Sun Belt	68.5	2
64	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	68	2
65	UAB	Conference USA	68	3.5
66	Stanford	Pac-12	68	2
67	Boston College	ACC	67.5	2
68	Tulane	AAC	67.5	3
69	Arizona	Pac-12	66.5	2
70	Virginia	ACC	66	3
71	California	Pac-12	66	2
72	Toledo	MAC	66	2.5
73	Army	Independent	65.5	3
74	Memphis	AAC	65.5	3.5
75	Washington State	Pac-12	65.5	3
76	James Madison	Sun Belt	65.5	2
77	Indiana	Big Ten	65	2
78	San Diego State	Mountain West	65	2
79	Rutgers	Big Ten	65	1.5
80	Northwestern	Big Ten	64.5	2
81	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	64.5	2
82	Louisiana	Sun Belt	64	3
83	Georgia State	Sun Belt	63.5	2
84	Tulsa	AAC	62.5	2
85	Troy	Sun Belt	62	2
86	South Florida	AAC	62	2
87	Miami (OH)	MAC	62	3
88	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	62	3
89	Georgia Tech	ACC	61	2
90	Liberty	Independent	61	3.5
91	Kansas	Big 12	61	1
92	Central Michigan	MAC	60.5	2.5
93	Utah State	Mountain West	60	2
94	Western Michigan	MAC	60	2
95	South Alabama	Sun Belt	60	2
96	Northern Illinois	MAC	59.5	2
97	Duke	ACC	59.5	2
98	North Texas	Conference USA	59	2
99	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	59	2
100	San Jose State	Mountain West	59	2
101	Vanderbilt	SEC	58.5	1
102	Colorado State	Mountain West	57	1.5
103	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	57	2
104	Wyoming	Mountain West	57	2.5
105	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	56.5	2.5
106	Ohio	MAC	56	2
107	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	56	2.5
108	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	55.5	2
109	Kent State	MAC	55.5	2.5
110	Navy	AAC	55.5	2
111	Colorado	Pac-12	55	2
112	UNLV	Mountain West	55	1
113	Eastern Michigan	MAC	54.5	2
114	Bowling Green	MAC	54.5	1
115	UTEP	Conference USA	54	1
116	Texas State	Sun Belt	53	1.5
117	Buffalo	MAC	51.5	3.5
118	New Mexico	Mountain West	51.5	1
119	Ball State	MAC	51	2
120	Rice	Conference USA	50	1
121	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	49.5	2
122	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	49	2
123	Nevada	Mountain West	48.5	3
124	Temple	AAC	47.5	2
125	Charlotte	Conference USA	46.5	2
126	UConn	Independent	44.5	1
127	Akron	MAC	43.5	1
128	New Mexico State	Independent	43.5	2
129	Hawaii	Mountain West	42.5	2
130	FIU	Conference USA	40	2
131	UMass	Independent	39.5	1.5

 

Week 3 Power Ratings Adjustments

 

Up: Louisville + 1, New Mexico + 1.5, North Carolina + 2, UTSA + 1, Duke + 3, Kansas State + 2, Arkansas + 2, Wake Forest + 3, South Alabama + 2, Marshall + 1.5, Maryland + 2, Tennessee + 2, Washington State + 1.5, Illinois + 1.5, UNLV + 1.5, Texas Tech + 3, Iowa State + 2, East Carolina + 1.5, Kentucky + 2, Syracuse + 4, Texas State + 2, Georgia Southern + 4, USC + 2, Michigan + 2.5, Virginia Tech + 3, Oregon State + 2, Cincinnati + 2, Washington + 2, James Madison + 4, Kansas + 3

Down: UCF -2, Ohio State -2.5, Georgia State -1.5, Army -2, Northwestern -2, Missouri -4, Central Michigan -3, Notre Dame -6, Charlotte -3.5, Pitt -5, Texas A&M -2, Wisconsin -2, Virginia -4, Cal -2, Houston -1, Iowa -4, Old Dominion -2, Florida -2, UMass -1.5, Eastern Michigan -2, Tulsa -3, FIU -3, Auburn -3, Nebraska -3, Hawaii -2.5, Boston College -2, Baylor -3, Nevada -3, Buffalo -2.5, Utah State -3, Indiana -2, UTEP -2, Colorado -4, Colorado State -3, Akron -3

A few notes on the biggest adjustments:

Notre Dame -6: The Fighting Irish are not viewed favorably by the betting market. I had them down for -4, but then saw their line for the game against Cal and moved them a couple more points. There are clear issues with this team at QB and OL. I still think they’re better than what we’ve seen so far, but they have to prove it at this point.

Pitt -5: This is a two-fold move. The first is that Kedon Slovis is out with a broken collarbone and Nick Patti has a sprained ankle, so we’ve got cluster injuries at QB. The second is that my line was off last week with Pitt 3.5 against Tennessee when it closed around a touchdown. The game did go to OT, so I think my 3.5 was a pretty fair number, but the injuries hurt and I had to adjust. Also, I bumped Tennessee up and I’m still low on their line this week. They’re being lined like a top-five team. I’m not really sure that’s the case, but I did want to mention them here.

Syracuse + 4: The Orange have two very impressive data points thus far, as they blew out a Louisville team that beat a pretty good UCF team on Friday night and also rolled a UConn team that had been pretty competitive through two games. 

Georgia Southern + 4: Nebraska is a dumpster fire, but this was a thoroughly impressive effort from Georgia Southern, who has converted well to the modified Air Raid offense. They’ve scored a ton of points in two games and I was clearly wrong about this team. I think I still need to adjust more, but maybe it was just a perfect storm facing an awful Morgan State team and then a dysfunctional Nebraska bunch.

James Madison + 4: JMU rolled over Norfolk State, but Todd Centeio seems to fit into this offense really well. The Dukes look like a much better team than I gave them credit for and I hope I have them accurately rated now after two big leaps the last two weeks.

Virginia -4: So, I think Virginia might be bad in a transitional year. Brennan Armstrong looked terrible against Illinois. I was several points low on that number. With a pretty big adjustment to Virginia, I think I’m closer to where they’re at as a team, but I’ll be keeping an eye on them for another move down if need be.

Missouri -4: I erroneously bumped Missouri last week, as I fell victim to a little bit of an overreaction of my own. Kansas State is good, but that was an abominable performance from the Tigers this past weekend. I bumped them back down around where they were.

Iowa -4: Another atrocious performance from the Hawkeyes offense. The defense was strong against Iowa State, but the offense is simply not good. My Iowa line this week is still too high, but keep in mind that there is a very low total on that game, which is going to lead to an adjusted spread.

Speaking of which, here are my Week 3 spreads:

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/16	Florida State	Louisville	-0.5
	Air Force	Wyoming	14
9/17	Cincinnati (1 pt HFA)	Miami OH	19
	UConn	Michigan	-47.5
	Purdue	Syracuse	0.5
	Rutgers	Temple	15.5
	Texas State	Baylor	-26
	Western Kentucky	Indiana	-2.5
	Georgia	South Carolina	22.5
	Oklahoma	Nebraska	12.5
	Buffalo	Coastal Carolina	-18.5
	Ohio	Iowa State	-23.5
	UTEP	New Mexico	1.5
	Old Dominion	Virginia	-12
	South Alabama	UCLA	-19
	Cal	Notre Dame	-15.5
	North Texas	UNLV	3
	Tulane	Kansas State	-13
	New Mexico State	Wisconsin	-37.5
	Penn State	Auburn	0.5
	Vanderbilt	Northern Illinois	-3
	Colorado	Minnesota	-23
	Ole Miss	Georgia Tech	18
	BYU	Oregon	-1.5
	Georgia Southern	UAB	-15.5
	Troy	App State	-13
	Kansas	Houston	-12.5
	UL Monroe	Alabama	-54
	Colorado State	Washington State	-11.5
	Liberty	Wake Forest	-15.5
	Marshall	Bowling Green	13
	Mississippi State	LSU	3.5
	Toledo	Ohio State	-31
	Akron	Tennessee	-44.5
	Charlotte	Georgia State	-19
	Texas Tech	NC State	-11
	Arkansas State	Memphis	-19.5
	UCF	FAU	9.5
	South Florida	Florida	-17
	SMU	Maryland	-6
	Michigan State	Washington	3.5
	Pitt	Western Michigan	11
	Nevada	Iowa	-26.5
	Louisiana	Rice	13
	UTSA	Texas	-13.5
	Louisiana Tech	Clemson	-35.5
	Miami (FL)	Texas A&M	-2.5
	San Diego State	Utah	-21.5
	Fresno State	USC	-11.5
	Eastern Michigan	Arizona State	-16.5

Games on my radar from a power ratings standpoint:

Miami (FL) + 6 (+ 2.5) vs. Texas A&M: Probably the game of the weekend, I like Miami here. It wasn’t just that App State beat Texas A&M, it was that the Mountaineers simply pushed the Aggies around. I was intentionally high on the Hurricanes coming into the season. I really like Tyler Van Dyke and I think Josh Gattis is a terrific offensive coordinator. I’m actually surprised this line didn’t come out lower, especially with TAMU’s showing last week.

UCLA -13.5 (-19) vs. South Alabama: I know there’s a lot of buzz for South Alabama right now. I understand it. I liked this team to win the Sun Belt West Division entering the season. They’ve looked really good in two games, but this is a pretty noteworthy step up in class. I’d expect this line to move north of two touchdowns.

North Texas + 2.5 (-3) vs. UNLV: UNLV blew away Idaho State in Week 0 and had a competitive loss to Cal last week. I still don’t love the idea of laying points with the Rebels here. This isn’t a huge overlay, especially because 0 is a dead number, but I could see myself being on UNT moneyline here. I’ll have to dig a little deeper into this one.

Colorado State + 16.5 (+ 11.5) vs. Washington State: Washington State struggled badly with Idaho in Week 1 before going on the road to beat Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Week 2 was a weird one. Colorado State was the subject of an enormous line move against Middle Tennessee to get as high as -14 and then lost outright by 15. I don’t really have a good pulse on either of these teams, which happens, even doing power ratings. I don’t think I can touch this game, but it’s off-market quite a bit, so I wanted to mention it.

Memphis -13.5 (-19.5) vs. Arkansas State: Kudos to the Red Wolves for covering against Ohio State, but maybe the Buckeyes aren’t quite as good as many of us thought (me included). Memphis was in a terrible revenge spot against a really good Mississippi State team in Week 1 and got roasted. In Week 2, Memphis hammered a bad Navy team, but I don’t think they got any respect for that. Maybe they should have, given that they threw for over 400 yards on just 24 completions. I think Seth Henigan is a really good QB. I really believe this one has the chance to get ugly. I like this play and also think it will be over 14 by later today or early Tuesday.

Michigan State + 2 (-3.5) vs. Washington: Kalen DeBoer’s Washington tenure is off to a really nice start with 97 points in two games, but Kent State is awful defensively and Portland State nearly beat San Jose State in Week 1, so it was a rough spot for the Vikings. I think Michigan State represents a massive leap in competition and a real litmus test for the Huskies. I’m out past the key number of 3 here, so this is maybe the most notable discrepancy between my number and the market number.

Feel free to email me with any questions aburke (at) vsin dot com about this article, anything else I write or to talk about any processes that you want to know more about or constructively criticize.

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