Week 2 NFL capsules

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

This Thursday night showdown features divisional opponents coming off disappointing losses. The Bengals (0-1) battled in Joe Burrow’s debut but missed a late game-tying field goal and fell to the Chargers 16-13, failing to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The Browns (0-1), meanwhile, got crushed by the Ravens 38-6 and didn’t come close to covering as 7-point dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Value-minded sharps have gotten down on the Bengals, dropping this line to 6 or even 5.5 at some shops. Cincinnati has value as a road divisional dog with a low total. One advantage to the Browns, however, is that Thursday night games typically benefit home favorites on a short week. The Under has also taken in sharp action, dropping from 45 to 44. The weather could also benefit the Under. The forecast calls for winds of 10+  mph.

 

DETROIT LIONS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS

These teams are coming off polar-opposite performances in Week 1. The Lions (0-1) coughed up a commanding 23-6 lead in the fourth quarter, losing to the Bears 27-23 as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Packers (1-0) are flying high after a 43-34 road win over the Vikings as 1.5-point dogs. This game opened with Green Bay listed as a 6-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Packers. Despite this lopsided support, the line remains stagnant at Packers -6. Some books even briefly dipped to 5.5. This signals smart money buying low on the Lions off a bad loss and selling high on the Packers off an impressive win. Detroit also has value as a road divisional dog getting a key number of + 6. Sharps are also eyeing a high-scoring game. The total has ticked up from 46 to 47.5. 

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

This matchup features the biggest and most dramatic line movement of Week 2. The Rams (1-0) came up huge for sharps in Week 1, beating Dallas 20-17 on “Sunday Night Football.” Los Angeles cashed as a contrarian home dog with massive reverse line movement (+ 3 down to a pick-’em). Meanwhile, the Eagles (0-1) are coming off a disappointing 27-17 loss to Washington in which they blew a 17-0 lead, losing straight up as 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with the Eagles listed as 3-point home favorites. The public is all over the Rams off a big win and happy to fade the Eagles off a bad loss. This has flipped the line all the way from Eagles -3 to Rams -1. Early sharps loaded up on the Rams immediately, getting points once the line opened. But at this point, Philadelphia offers rare contrarian value with a massive deflated line, similar to how the Broncos opened -3, closed + 3 and covered in Week 1 against the Titans. Pros will likely let the public move this line as far as it will go toward Los Angeles and then fade the trendy dog and back Philly. 

 

DENVER BRONCOS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Both teams are coming off short weeks, having just played on “Monday Night Football.” The Broncos (0-1) fell to the Titans 16-14 but covered as 3-point home underdogs. The Steelers (1-0) rolled over the Giants in Ben Roethlisberger’s return, winning 26-16 and covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 6-point home favorite. Pro and Joe money has pounded the Steelers, pushing Pittsburgh up from -6 to -6.5. If the line gets to 7, you’ll likely see some buyback on the Broncos getting the key number. Sharp action has also targeted the Under. The total has fallen from 43 to 42. Both teams went Under in their Week 1 games. Keep an eye out for Broncos star wideout Courtland Sutton. He missed the opener and remains questionable with a shoulder injury.

 

ATLANTA FALCONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS

Both NFC teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 1. The Falcons (0-1) fell to the Seahawks at home as 1-point favorites, while the Cowboys (0-1) lost to the Rams 20-17 on the road as a pick-’em on Sunday night. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 6-point home favorite. Some books opened Dallas 6.5. Sharps have quickly sided with the Falcons getting the points, hitting Atlanta hard at + 6.5 and + 6. This has dropped Dallas to a 5-point favorite. Some books are even down to -4.5. If the line keeps falling, you might see buyback on Dallas at a deflated number. We might also be in for a high-scoring game. The total opened at 51 and has been bet up to 52.5. 

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW YORK JETS

Both teams lost and failed to cover in Week 1. The 49ers (0-1) fell to the Cardinals 24-20, losing straight up as 7-point home favorites. The Jets (0-1) lost to the Bills 27-17 as 6.5-point road underdogs. This nonconference showdown opened with San Francisco listed as a 6-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are eyeing a bounce-back “get right” spot for the 49ers. This line has jumped up from 49ers -6 to -7, with pros eyeing the 49ers at -6 or -6.5. The Jets offer some value at the key number of + 7 as contrarian home dogs, especially as an East Coast team catching a touchdown against a West Coast team traveling cross-country for an early game. Pros have also hit the Under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. 

 

BUFFALO BILLS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS

These AFC East foes are trending in opposite directions. The Bills (1-0) are coming off a 27-17 win and cover over the Jets as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (0-1) lost their opening game to the Patriots 21-11, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are rushing to the window to lay the points with Bills Mafia. This lopsided support has pushed Buffalo from -3.5 up to -5.5. Miami offers value as a contrarian divisional dog at home with an inflated line. If the line goes to 6, you will likely see buyback on the Dolphins at + 6. The Bills went 2-0 against the Dolphins last year, winning 37-20 at Miami and 31-21 at Buffalo. We’ve seen a little bit of Under money hit the market, dropping the total from 42 to 41.

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Both playoff hopefuls are coming off lackluster openers. The Vikings (0-1) lost to the Packers 43-34 at home as 1.5-point favorites. The Colts (0-1) were embarrassed by the lowly Jaguars, losing 27-20 as 7-point favorites. This line opened with the Colts listed as 3-point home favorites. The public is all over the Vikings and happy to grab the points. This line hasn’t budged off 3, but we do see some liability on the Vikings side as the + 3 is juiced up to -115 at some shops, signaling a possible fall to 2.5. Sharps seem to be eyeing a high-scoring game. The total opened at 47 and has been bet up to 48.5. This game will be indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. Historically, slick indoor tracks have provided a slight edge to the Over. Both teams went Over in Week 1.

 

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

These NFC South rivals are coming off Week 1 losses. The Panthers (0-1) hung tough but came up short against the Raiders, falling 34-30 as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs (0-1) were humbled by the Saints, losing 34-23 as 4-point dogs. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes have loaded up on Brady in his home debut. This lopsided action has pushed Tampa from -7.5 up to -9. Some books are even at -9.5. The Panthers have value as contrarian road divisional dogs with an inflated line. Sharps may be waiting this one out to see if it goes to the key number of 10, in which case they might pounce on the Panthers. We could be looking at another high-scoring game. This total opened at a high 48 and has been adjusted upward to 49. The forecast calls for high 80s and humidity. Historically, hot temperatures benefit Overs as defenses get gassed. 

 

NEW YORK GIANTS AT CHICAGO BEARS

These NFC opponents are coming off opposite performances in Week 1. The Giants (0-1) looked sloppy Monday night, with Daniel Jones throwing two interceptions and Saquon Barkley rushing for only 6 yards on 15 attempts in a 26-16 home loss to the Steelers as 6-point underdogs. The Bears (1-0) pulled off one of the most thrilling come-from-behind wins in Week 1, overcoming a 23-6 deficit in the fourth quarter to shock the Lions 27-23 as 2.5-point road underdogs. This line opened with Chicago listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Some books appear to be creeping toward -6, indicating some sharp action laying the points on the home favorites. Grabbing the -5.5 could end up being key so a 6-point win covers instead of pushes. The total is 43. Keep an eye out for the weather in Chicago. It could be a windy day with 10-mph breezes, which would benefit the Under. The Bears have a rest advantage. They played Sunday, while the Giants must travel on a short week after having played Monday night.

 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TENNESSEE TITANS

These AFC South rivals are coming off impressive wins in Week 1. The Jaguars (1-0) shocked the betting world by beating the Colts 27-20 as 7-point underdogs. The Titans (1-0) battled back to beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday night but failed to cover as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 10-point home favorite. Early wise-guy money has come down on the Jaguars at the key number of + 10, which has dropped some lines to 9.5 or even 9. The Jags have value as road divisional dogs getting big points. Jacksonville also has a rest advantage as the Jaguars played Sunday afternoon while the Titans played Monday night. Pros seem to be leaning toward a lower-scoring game. The total has dipped slightly from 43 to 42.

 

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

Both teams are coming off impressive upset victories in Week 1. Washington (1-0) fell behind Philadelphia 17-0 but stormed back to win 27-17 as a 5.5-point underdog. Similarly, Arizona (1-0) fell behind San Francisco 10-0 only to catch fire and win 24-20 as a 7-point dog. This line opened with the Cardinals listed as 7-point home favorites. The public is leaning on the high-flying Cards at home. But Kyler Murray will have to face the ferocious young defensive line of Washington. Sharps have grabbed Washington at the key number of + 7, which has dropped this line to 6.5. We’ve also seen some Over money hit the market, pushing the total up from 45.5 to 46.5. This game will be played in the retractable-roof stadium in Arizona. If it’s closed, that will provide an edge to the Over.

 

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

The Ravens (1-0) picked up where they left off last season, crushing the Browns 38-6 and easily covering as 7-point favorites in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Texans (0-1) lost on opening night to the Chiefs 34-20, failing to cover as 9.5-point underdogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Ravens with more than three of four bets laying the points expecting another Baltimore rout. This lopsided betting has pushed Baltimore from -5.5 up to -7. When the number hit 7, we saw value-minded sharps grab the Texans + 7 at home, which has dropped the line back to 6.5. The Texans have value as contrarian home dogs with an inflated line. Houston also has a rest advantage, having played Thursday night while Baltimore played Sunday. This total opened at a high 54. Some sharp action has hit the Under, dropping it to 52.5. 

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Both teams enter this divisional showdown coming off Week 1 victories. The Chiefs (1-0) kicked off their season with a 34-20 win over the Texans, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. The Chargers (1-0) outlasted the Bengals 16-13, picking up a road victory and covering as 2.5-point favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point road favorite. The Chiefs have become an auto-bet for the public, and more than three of four bets are laying the points with Kansas City. This lopsided support has pushed K.C. from -7 all the way up to -8.5. The Chargers have value as contrarian home divisional dogs with an inflated line. The play pros really like, however, is the Under. It opened at 50 and has been steamed down to 47.5. This Under matches a profitable system that centers on Unders that fall in divisional matchups with high totals. 

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This “Sunday Night Football” showdown features Super Bowl contenders coming off impressive wins. The Patriots (1-0) christened the Cam Newton era with a 21-11 win over the Dolphins, covering as 7-point home favorites. The Seahawks (1-0) torched the Falcons 38-25, easily winning and covering as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is leaning on the Seahawks at home, and about two-thirds of bets are laying the points. This lopsided support has pushed the line briefly up to Seattle -4.5. That’s when we saw some sharp buyback on the Patriots + 4.5, which dropped the line back to 4. The hook (+ 4.5) could end up being critical for New England backers. The Patriots have value as a contrarian dog in what will be the most heavily bet game of the day. Sharps have also gotten down on the Over, pushing the total up from 44 to 45. 

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

This “Monday Night Football” nonconference matchup features teams coming off impressive wins. The Saints (1-0) humbled the Bucs in Week 1, winning and covering 34-23 as 4-point home favorites. The Raiders (1-0) outlasted the Panthers on the road, winning and covering 34-30 in a shootout as 3-point favorites. This line opened with the Saints listed as 5.5-point road favorites. The public is all over New Orleans, which has pushed this line up from Saints -5.5 to -6. Some books are inching closer to -6.5. The Raiders, making their Vegas debut at Allegiant Stadium, have value as home contrarian dogs with an inflated line in what will be the most heavily bet game of the week. Sharps may wait this one out to see if they can get the Raiders at + 7, at which point you will likely see some buyback at the key number. This total opened at a high 50.5 and has been bet up to 51.5. Both teams went Over in Week 1.

 

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