If there were trends that favored underdogs last week, they got a whole lot stronger. Underdogs went 12-4 ATS and had nine outright upset wins. We shouldn’t expect the same this week, but the beauty of the NFL is that you just never quite know. After all, the Packers, Bills, Titans, Colts, Ravens, and Browns were all teams with at least 11 wins in the 2020 season that lost last week.
Week 2 features a new set of matchups and a new set of trends. We’ll take a look at some pertinent ones based on the 16 games coming up this weekend.
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5, 41)
The Giants and the WFT square off on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 2. The Giants lost 27-13 to the Broncos last week, as the game stayed under the total. Washington was dealt a tough hand in Week 1 with an early injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Football Team lost 20-16 in another game that stayed under.
With Fitzmagic still sidelined, the Washington squad will turn to Taylor Heinicke. The Giants are hoping for a better defensive performance than last week’s showing against Teddy Bridgewater.
- The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four against the NFC East
- The Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss
- The Under is 5-0 in the last five for NYG after a straight up loss
- The Under is also 8-0 in the last eight games with the Giants as an underdog
- The Washington Football Team is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games, but just 1-6 ATS in the last seven games as a favorite
- The Under is 4-0 in Washington’s last four as a favorite
- The Under is 7-1 in Washington’s last eight home games
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 44.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Saints were the biggest winner in Week 1 with a 35-point win over the Packers. It was a dominant performance in just about every way. The Panthers were rather dominant as well in a win over the New York Jets. Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold both had strong Week 1 efforts. Will we see the same here in Week 2?
Both defenses also fared extremely well, as the Saints game stayed under because Green Bay only scored three points. Carolina’s game also stayed under with a 19-14 final.
- The Saints are on a 4-1 ATS run in their last five games
- New Orleans is 13-2 SU in the last 15 games on the road
- The Under is 4-0 in the last four games for the Saints
- The Under is 7-1 in the last eight games for the Saints following an ATS win
- Carolina is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games as an underdog
- The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, but just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as a home underdog
- Carolina has played four straight games under the total
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5, 48)
The Browns covered the spread against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but blew a 12-point halftime lead to start 0-1. Cleveland will be looking for a bounce back performance here after a lackluster second half against KC. That game went over the total with the 33-29 final.
The Texans also played a high-scoring affair, racking up 37 points in a 16-point win over Jacksonville. The Texans were one of those nine underdogs to win outright last week, getting points at home against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
- The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog
- Houston is just 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight games following a SU win
- The Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games as an underdog
- Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in the last six, but just 1-4 ATS in the last five at home
- The Under is 5-2 in the last seven games with the Browns as a favorite
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-2, 45)
The Bengals have been a popular pick this week in the betting markets after their thrilling overtime win against Minnesota last week. Cincinnati has been bet down from + 3.5 to the 2.5 or even 2 that we now see painted across the odds screen. Cincinnati was one of the nine underdogs to win outright last week.
The Bears did not play well on Sunday Night Football against the LA Rams in a 34-14 loss. Justin Fields did play well, but Andy Dalton will be the starter once again this week. Perhaps that has something to do with the line move here, as Chicago came nowhere close to covering last week and dug a big hole.
- The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win
- Cincinnati is 7-2-1 ATS in the 10 games that Joe Burrow has started and finished
- The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a team with a losing record
- The Under is 12-4-2 in Cincinnati’s last 18 catching points on the road
- The Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- Chicago is just 1-5 ATS in the last six as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in the last six following a SU loss
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 47)
Early line move actually took this number down a little bit following the big Monday Night Football win for the Raiders, but the line is now even higher than where it opened at most places. The Steelers won and covered as another one of those underdogs to steal a win in Week 1. They bested the Buffalo Bills 23-16.
The Raiders had that big, emotional win over the Ravens on MNF and now head across the country to face the Steelers. The Raiders were an underdog last week and we’ll see if they can work some magic again. Last week’s game went way over the total.
- The Raiders are 2-5 SU in their last seven games
- Las Vegas is 5-1 SU in the last six on the road and also 4-1 ATS in the last five as a road underdog
- The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog
- The Over is 13-3-1 in the last 17 games overall for the Raiders
- The Over is also 4-0 in their last four games as an underdog
- The Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win
- Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS in the last four as a favorite
- The Over is 4-1 in the last five games for Pittsburgh
Buffalo Bills (-3, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Bills lost in a favorite role last week at home and they’ll look to avoid the same fate in a favorite role on the road. This AFC East matchup down in South Florida has Buffalo favored by 3 or 3.5 around the globe and the total has crept down a little bit. Buffalo lost 23-16 to the Steelers in last week’s action to fall to 0-1 SU and ATS.
Miami was a winner last week as one of those nine underdogs to score an upset victory. The Dolphins topped the Patriots by a point, but the box score had New England as the vastly superior team. We’ll see if Tua and the Miami offense can fare better this week.
- The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games
- Buffalo is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven as a favorite
- The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record
- The Under is 6-0 in Buffalo’s last six games after a SU loss
- Miami is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games getting points at home
- The Dolphins are also 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall at home
- The Over is on a 5-0 run in Bills vs. Dolphins games
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 48.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Rams looked good on offense with Matthew Stafford at the helm in a sweat-free victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 1. This is a little bit of a shorter week with some travel for the Rams, who played on Sunday Night Football last week and have the lengthy trip to Indianapolis for this Week 2 matchup.
The Colts fell last week to the Seattle Seahawks at home, so we’ll see if Indy can get to .500 here and send Los Angeles to an identical record.
The Rams game went over, due in large part to the 34 points that they scored. The Seahawks/Colts game stayed under the total comfortably.
- The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five as favorites, but went 2-2 SU and ATS as road favorites last season
- The Under is 5-0 in the last five games against a team with a losing record for the Rams
- The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
- Indianapolis is also 0-6 ATS in the last six as a home underdog, including last week
- The Colts are 6-0 to the Under in the last six against a team with a winning record
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 49) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were one of last week’s biggest surprises with a convincing 32-6 triumph over the Atlanta Falcons. Philadelphia was catching points in that game, but stifled the Falcons at every turn and won the game easily. It did stay under the total.
San Francisco was much more dominant than the final score would suggest, as the 49ers led 41-17 at the two-minute warning of the fourth quarter. The game ended 41-33 and flew over the total. Those that got the Niners at -7.5 cashed a ticket, but those that got -8 had a tough-luck push and those that laid a bigger number had a bad-beat loser.
- The 49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- Including last week, the Niners are 5-4 ATS in their last nine road games
- The Over is 5-0-1 in San Francisco’s last six as a road favorite
- The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four overall at home
- The Under is 8-3 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games
Denver Broncos (-6, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars
There hasn’t been a lot of good news for Jacksonville lately and that includes last week’s lopsided loss to the Houston Texans. The Jaguars have all sorts of issues in the locker room and on the sideline. We’ll see if they can set those aside and play better following last week’s 37-21 loss.
Denver was a big road winner last week over the Giants and will look to make it two in a row away from the Mile High City to start the season. The Broncos are laying about double the points that they were laying last week, as we’ve seen a big line move on them as a road favorite.
- The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record
- Denver is also just 1-4 ATS in the last five games following a SU win
- The Under is 5-0 in Denver’s last five games as a road favorite
- The Jaguars are 0-7 SU in their last seven home games
- Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS in the last five games overall
New England Patriots (-6, 43) at New York Jets
Mac Jones didn’t get the win in his NFL regular season debut, but he played well in the loss against the Miami Dolphins. New England had too many turnovers and costly mistakes to win the game, but the Patriots were impressive enough to gain favor from bettors this week with a noteworthy line move from -3.5 up to -6 against the Jets.
The Jets lost to Carolina and failed to cover in the regular season debut of Zach Wilson. They’ll look for better fortunes here in the home opener for Wilson and first-year head coach Robert Saleh. Both the Jets and Patriots had unders in last week’s action.
- The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall
- New England is just 1-6 ATS in the last seven games as a favorite
- The Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five road games
- The Jets are 1-7 SU in their last eight games at home, but are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games
- The Jets are also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games as an underdog
- The Over is 5-1 in the last six against a team with a losing record
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 50.5)
It looked as though the Vikings were going to play to a Week 1 tie against the Cincinnati Bengals, but Joe Burrow checked to the right play at the line and Cincinnati picked up a big gain on fourth down to set up a game-winning field goal. It was another tough blow for Minnesota, who extended a streak of ATS futility in the loss.
The Cardinals were a big winner in Week 1 with a 38-13 drubbing of the Tennessee Titans. Arizona was getting 2.5 points, but the Cardinals certainly didn’t need those, as they dominated the game from start to finish. Some expectations have been placed on Arizona this week with a growing line from -3 to -4.
- The Vikings are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games
- Minnesota is just 1-4 SU in the last five games
- The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games
- The Over is 9-0 in Minnesota’s last nine games following a SU loss
- The Cardinals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against a team with a losing record
- Arizona is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Week 2 games
- The Over is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games at home
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5, 52)
It feels like forever ago that we saw the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football back on September 9. Tampa Bay won straight up, but failed to cover with a last-second, game-winning field goal to win 31-29. The game did easily exceed the total, but the Cowboys covered comfortably.
The Falcons were awful in Week 1 against the Eagles and find themselves a double-digit underdog here in Arthur Smith’s second game as the head coach. Nothing went right for Atlanta offensively, so we’ll see if that changes against a Tampa Bay defense that had to be embarrassed by last week’s performance.
- The Falcons are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and 0-6 SU in the last six
- Atlanta is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 Week 2 games
- The Under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games as a road underdog
- Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in the last five home games
- The Bucs are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall
- Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in the last four after failing to cover the spread in the previous game
- The Over is 6-0 in Tampa Bay’s last six games at home against a team with a losing record
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 54)
This has been one of the biggest line adjustments of the week, as the Seahawks are now -6 against the Titans. Tennessee had an awful showing last week in the 38-13 loss to the Cardinals while laying points at home. The Seahawks had a nice road win over the Colts and now play in front of the 12th Man, which should be wild and raucous in the Pacific Northwest.
The total also shot up like a rocket for this game up to 54. Will defense truly be optional? Can the Titans bounce back? The AFC South looks very weak this season based on the Week 1 results, but Tennessee will be looking for a much-needed confidence boost.
- The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games
- Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in the last four September games
- The Over is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four as a road underdog and 6-1 in the last seven road games overall
- The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five September games
- Seattle is 1-5 ATS in the last six against a team with a losing record and also 1-5 ATS in the last six following a cover
- The Under is 8-2 in Seattle’s last 10 games
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 56)
The Cowboys have had some extra time to prep for Justin Herbert and the Chargers after a tough loss on Thursday Night Football. Dak Prescott looked great in his return and that is a big reason why we have a massive total of 56 for this game.
The Cowboys lost, but covered against Tampa Bay. The Chargers won and covered in a game that was pretty close to a pick-em or -1 throughout the week against Washington. That game stayed under the total, while the Cowboys and Bucs went comfortably over.
- The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
- The Over is 5-0 in Dallas’s last five games as an underdog
- The Chargers are on a five-game ATS winning streak
- The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS win
- The Under is 8-2 in LAC’s last 10 as a home favorite
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 54.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Two AFC heavyweights meet on Sunday Night Football this week. The Kansas City Chiefs won, but failed to cover last week against the Cleveland Browns, which is basically the way that things have been for a while now. Kansas City won a lot of games last season, but was allergic to covering spreads.
The Ravens lost in devastating fashion in one of the most exciting Monday Night Football games in recent memory. Baltimore was laying points against Las Vegas and dropped the game in overtime with a 33-27 final that easily went over the total.
- The Chiefs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games, including 2-9 ATS as a favorite
- Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the last five against Baltimore
- The Over is 5-1 in Kansas City’s last six following an ATS loss
- The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog
- Baltimore is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine games
- The Over is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five home games
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11.5, 48.5)
Nobody really knows what to expect from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers had one of his worst games as a professional last week against the Saints, leading many to wonder if his head and heart are fully into football. We’ll find out this week, as the Packers are laying a big number against a division rival.
The Lions scored 33 points with the help of two late touchdowns in what was really an uncompetitive loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Detroit trailed 41-17 with two minutes left in the game. Jared Goff did some good practice reps in against soft coverage, which may help in the long-term.
- The Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday Night Football games
- Detroit is 6-13-1 ATS in the last 20 Week 2 games
- The Over is 7-1 in Detroit’s last eight games following a SU loss
- Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in the last nine games following a SU loss
- The Packers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Week 2 games