Week 2 NFL best bets: A play on every game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 


Welcome to another exciting weekend in the NFL.

With 14 games on Sunday's slate, there are plenty of betting opportunities. Our VSiN experts -- Adam Burke, Wes Reynolds, Scott Seidenberg, Dave Tuley, Jonathan Von Tobel and Matt Youmans, along with Ben Brown from Pro Football Focus --combine to give their opinions on every game.

Note: Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday night.

Here are our Week 2 best bets:

New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 44) at Carolina Panthers

Youmans: On the surface, the Saints were the league’s most impressive team in Week 1. Jameis Winston passed for five touchdowns, the New Orleans defense picked off Aaron Rodgers twice, and the Saints put a 38-3 beatdown on the Packers. But the box score was not as impressive as the scoreboard, and the reality is Rodgers turned in a no-show effort. New Orleans finished 3-0 in turnover margin and its offense totaled 322 yards while averaging 5.4 yards per play. Winston passed for only 148 yards. The betting public will be all over the Saints this week, so I’ll take a contrarian approach. There were several positives to take away from the Panthers’ 19-14 victory over the Jets. Sam Darnold played error-free football while passing for 279 yards, Christian McCaffrey totaled 187 yards (98 rushing, 89 receiving), and coach Matt Rhule showed he’s got his team on the right track. A five-point win against the Jets is nowhere near as impressive as a 35-point win against the Packers, but that’s a moot point. The Saints are in a flat spot laying more than a field goal on the road, plus they face mounting injury issues with cornerback Marshon Lattimore, defensive end Marcus Davenport and center Erik McCoy expected to miss this game. The favorite is fat and happy. The home dog is hungry.

Pick: Panthers + 3.5

Tuley: The Saints were my very best of Week 1, as I truly didn’t understand how they went from 3-point home favorites over the Packers to 3.5- to 4-point underdogs on a neutral field. Of course, even I didn’t see a 38-3 blowout coming. The advance line on this game was Saints -2.5 and has been bet up to -4, so now they’re the team being overrated. The Panthers, who held off the Jets 19-14, certainly weren’t as impressive as the Saints were in their rout of the Packers. However, a win in the NFL is a win and they showed good things in Sam Darnold’s debut as he connected with former NYJ teammate Robby Anderson on a 57-yard TD pass and spread the ball around with his new teammates, including RB Christian McCaffrey, who led the Panthers in both rushing and receiving years. Carolina was in control before letting the Jets get close late. The bargain is now on the Panthers plus the inflated points.

Pick: Panthers + 3.5

Reynolds: The Saints' victory over Green Bay was not all that shocking considering New Orleans was 8-1 in games over the last two seasons where Drew Brees did not start and was a 12-4 team last season. The season wins total dropping to 9 or 9.5 seemed a bit extreme. However, before we say that the Saints are going to be equitable or even greater than previous seasons’ standards, keep in mind that New Orleans did benefit from + 3 in TO margin.

New starter Jameis Winston’s 148 passing yards were the fewest in a 5-TD game in NFL history. The Saints are on an 8-1-1 ATS run dating back to last season.

Carolina led the Jets 16-0 at halftime and were more dominant than the final score indicated as the Jets got a late TD to make the final score 19-14. Carolina had a 6.0-4.2 yards per play advantage. Sam Darnold threw for 279 yards and a touchdown with zero picks. While Christian McCaffrey failed to find the end zone, he flourished in his new role as Darnold’s best friend with 187 yards from scrimmage (98 rushing, 89 passing). The Carolina defense has been steadily improving as they have drafted first rounders each of the last three years and it showed on Sunday with six sacks. 

Meanwhile, the Saints acquired cornerback Bradley Roby following last week’s trade with the

Texans, but New Orleans is full of defensive injuries. Several linemen are hurt and Marshon Lattimore, their best cornerback, will be out several weeks following thumb surgery. New Orleans also lost center Erik McCoy, one of the best centers in the NFC, against the Packers last week.

While the Saints demise looks, at first glance, to be greatly exaggerated, the look-ahead line at Westgate SuperBook was a PK and was re-opened at -3 and adjusted all the way to -4 before buyback (including mine) came in. 

The Saints offensive coaching staff also had six coaches test positive for COVID-19 on Monday. 

Pick: Panthers + 3.5

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5, 48)

Burke: Over money hit the board very early in the week based on what we saw in Week 1 and pushed this total up too high. Houston had an offensive explosion with 37 points against Jacksonville and Cleveland scored 29 points, and did so with over eight yards per play, against Kansas City.

Those are two misleading numbers, though. Jacksonville is clearly a team in turmoil, so you want to put an asterisk next to that game for the Texans. They’re not going 12-of-21 on third down again. Tyrod Taylor will get pressured more by a vastly superior defensive line. The Browns simply scheme better than Jaguars, who will have tons of growing pains with that coaching staff.

Kevin Stefanski spent all summer dissecting the Chiefs. He is the best offensive mind that the Browns have had in the modern era. Now he has to look at a Texans team that he probably didn’t prepare for over the offseason. That means going to the running game and relying on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. This game should feature a lot of ground-and-pound for Cleveland, which will keep the clock running and also move the chains.

This isn’t a game where Cleveland has to try and keep pace. This is a game where Cleveland should get ahead and be able to salt the game away. The Browns were up by 12 at halftime last week. An elite team like Kansas City can overcome that deficit. Houston cannot. That should suppress the second-half scoring of this game.

While the total is the primary play here, the Browns are also -12.5 at a lot of places out there. While the most optimal teasers involve going through 3 and 7, that strategy also predates the totals that we see nowadays in the NFL. That remains a profitable approach in low-totaled games, but the increase in totals in the upper 40s and low 50s has added equity to grabbing 7, 8, 10, and 11. Teasing the Browns under a touchdown here looks like a pretty good leg of a two-team teaser.

Pick: Houston/Cleveland Under 48; Browns -6.5 (two-team teaser with Tampa Bay)

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3, 45)

Tuley: The advance line on this game was Bears -4. The Bengals beat the Vikings 27-24 in OT as 3-point home underdogs and now are getting the same number of points on the road. I know I said home-field advantage has been negligible so far, but I really wish I could get + 4 or even + 3.5 with the Bengals in this spot. It’s just not as strong a play at 3 with the added possibility.

Pick: Pass

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 47)

Burke: As a new transplant to Las Vegas, even I got caught up in the Raiders’ emotional and enthralling win on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens. It was a roller coaster ride of epic proportions and it was a draining, exhausting game for both teams.

The unfortunate thing for the Raiders is that they’ll go from the MNF spotlight to an early Sunday game and will do so by crossing three time zones to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers had a really nice win over the Bills in Week 1. Their offense struggled, which is what we expected anyway. The defense played really well and harassed Josh Allen all game long.

The Raiders had three offensive holding penalties on linemen last week and now face a tremendous Steelers pass rush anchored by a healthy TJ Watt. Baltimore’s pass coverage was abominable in Week 1. Pittsburgh faced a dynamic Buffalo offense and held the Bills to just 4.7 yards per play and just 5.1 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

The spread and total imply a Raiders team total of 21 points. Las Vegas was 1-3 when scoring 21 or fewer points last season, with a 10-point win in a monsoon against Cleveland, and losses by 16, 25, and 37 points. The Raiders lost seven of eight games in 2019 when scoring 21 or fewer points and five of those games were losses by double digits.

This is not a team built to win or thrive in low-scoring games. Minkah Fitzpatrick should neutralize Darren Waller and the pass rush should be all over Derek Carr with a marginal Raiders offensive line. With those things in mind, we shouldn’t need a big number from Pittsburgh’s offense to get the cover.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

Tuley: The Steelers upset the Bills, supposedly one of the top contenders in the AFC this season, in Week 1 on Sunday, but the Raiders put on an even bigger show by rallying to beat the Ravens 33-27 in OT on Monday night. I often think of the Ravens and Steelers as mirror images of each other, but even though the Steelers have the better defense, I can see another shootout here. The Raiders almost made my cut on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page at + 5.5. I was doubtful that the line would get back to 6, but that’s where it sat at most Vegas books as of Thursday afternoon. Since I’m anticipating another shootout, I see value on Over 47 as I put the total closer to 50 or 51.

Picks: Raiders + 6 and Over 47

Hill: We all watched what was a wild finish Monday night as the Raiders won in their first chance to play in front of fans at Allegiant Stadium. The finish was so wild, in fact, that we saw the Raiders twice celebrate game-winning touchdown catches. That emotional victory, however, I think comes with a price tag. The Raiders will be flying west to east, off of a short week as the game against the Ravens ended around midnight on Monday. Not only is it a quick turnaround with travel also a factor, but it comes after the Raiders essentially played an entire extra quarter in an emotional game.

We saw a couple of weeks ago Florida State and Notre Dame play a barn burner in a similar spot. The game went to overtime and it seemed like it could perhaps take a toll on both teams the following week. The following week Notre Dame needed a touchdown in the last minute to beat 17-point ‘dog Toledo, and Florida State lost outright as 27-point chalk to Jacksonville St. I expect a hung-over Raiders team to sleepwalk through an early 10 am PT start, as they also have to deal with the issue that star running back Josh Jacobs didn’t practice Thursday, and seemed less than 100% against the Ravens. 

We’ve seen the Raiders struggle with travel under Gruden in prior years. In ‘19 they were 6-4 when they flew to New York to play a hapless Jets team who proceeded to beat the Raiders 34-3 in the early start time. Last year, after taking the Chiefs to the wire, they flew to Atlanta as the Falcons earned one of their four wins, bombarding the Raiders 43-6. Brutal spot for the Raiders, this might be the only game this week where I lay points. 

Seidenberg: It was an emotional night at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders outlasted the Ravens in overtime in a game that seemed to have 4 different endings. Now the Raiders have to put that game behind them and travel on a short week to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, coming off an upset win of their own. The injury bug has bit Vegas hard. Gerald McCoy is out for the year, so is starting guard Denzel Good. Yannick Ngakoue is expected to miss this game. Josh Jacobs, Carl Nassib, Richie Incognito, Marcus Mariota and Nick Kwaitkowski all missed practice time this week. If you’re not 100 percent healthy going up against the physicality of the Steelers, you’re in for a long day. Pittsburgh didn’t look great offensively against the Bills, but the defense kept them in the game. They’ll be anxious to take advantage of a make-shift offensive line for the Raiders on Sunday. The crowd will be out in full force for this home opener, especially feeding off the surprising win against the Bills, knowing they can start 2-0. They’ll have to account for Darren Waller, but the fact that they were able to contain Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, gives me confidence knowing they can handle the Raiders biggest weapons.

With the Raiders playing on a short week, after an overtime game against the physical Ravens, traveling across the country for an early kickoff, with all the injuries they’re dealing with, I can’t see them coming away with another upset win here. Throw in the fact that Jon Gruden in his career is a measly 15-25 ATS after an outright win as an underdog, and I’ll take the Steelers to cruise in this one. 

Pick: Steelers -6.5

Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins

Burke: The Bills struggled last week against the Steelers, but the offense will get a respite this week. Miami has a decent defense, but the Dolphins do not generate anywhere near the pressure that the Steelers do. Buffalo didn’t find many explosive plays, but still ran 24 more offensive plays than the Steelers. A special teams touchdown was really the difference in the game with a blocked punt TD for Pittsburgh.

Buffalo led the league in third-down conversion rate last season at 49.7%. Even with last week’s mediocre offensive numbers, the Bills were still 8-for-18 on third down. The Dolphins allowed the Patriots to convert 11 of 16 third-down attempts, many of those on completions from Mac Jones, who was 9-of-12 on third down with seven first-down conversions. Imagine what Josh Allen will do if Miami is bad again in those key situations.

The Dolphins offense managed 5.0 yards per play against New England. Tua Tagovailoa struggled again and Miami had no semblance of a rushing attack. The Bills defense did play well enough to win against the Steelers and Miami’s offense isn’t really that much better.

Buffalo clearly won the box score in both games last season, holding an 8.9 to 5.7 yards per play edge in the Week 2 win and a 7.1 to 5.7 YPP edge in the Week 17 win.

The Bills are better than what we saw last week. The Dolphins probably aren’t.

Pick: Buffalo Bills -3

Tuley: A lot of the line adjustments make sense based on what we saw in Week 1, but we try to attack the ones that don’t. The advance line on this game was Bills -2.5. The Bills lost 23-16 at home against the Steelers while the Dolphins beat the Patriots 17-16 on the road. Granted, Buffalo’s opponent was tougher, but you’d still think this line would stay the same if oddsmakers didn’t see a need to lower it closer to PK. Instead, it’s been pushed through the key number of 3. I’m sure this is because the public is expecting the Bills to bounce back and be the AFC East leaders everyone expected them to be, but I’ll take the Dolphins plus the hook (+ 3.5). They can keep this close like they did last September in a 31-28 home loss. Hopefully it’s hot and humid for the visitors from Buffalo.

Pick: Dolphins + 3.5

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Reynolds: The Seattle Seahawks came into Indianapolis in Week 1 and averaged 7.2 yards per play while Russell Wilson was definitely cooking with a 152.3 QB Rating, the second highest of his career. Most prognosticators picked the Seahawks behind the Rams, who averaged 7.7 yards per play on Sunday night against a solid Bears defense, in the NFC West. So, if Seattle can do this to the Colts, then what will the Rams do? Exactly. 

The Colts defense was better in the second half, but was never able to mount a comeback. Carson Wentz was just ok in his debut, but ok will not be good enough if the Indianapolis defense is not better than what they were in the first half last week. 

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford had the highest passing efficiency rating in his 13-year NFL career last week. Apparently having a defense that can actually get some stops inspired him. Perhaps having this high-end defense will improve upon his 10-15-1 ATS career mark as a road chalk. Furthermore, all was not great for the Rams defense who did allow 134 yards on the ground (5.2 yards per carry) to a not exactly potent Bears rushing attack. The Colts are much deeper in the backfield. 

This summer, the Westgate SuperBook had the Colts as 1.5-point favorites and the line re-opened Rams -4 and got up to as high as 4.5. This looks to be too big of an adjustment with an overinflated favorite off a sizable win in a prime time game. 

Pick: Colts + 3.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4, 50) at Philadelphia Eagles

Tuley: I know it was against the Falcons, but the Eagles’ 32-6 rout in the opener was a bit of a wake-up call. Are they that much better than we thought — or are the Falcons just that bad? I side more with the former and see the Eagles as live home dogs this week, so I grabbed some Eagles + 4 when it showed up at a few books Tuesday before making it one of my best bets in Point Spread Weekly. The 49ers were blowing out the Lions before letting them back into the game (and the back-door cover against late numbers). Assuming the Eagles don’t get run over early — and the 49ers lost starting RB Raheem Mostert after just two carries Sunday — this should come down to a field goal, and I’ll be happy to have more than three points in my pocket. If you’re only able to get + 3, I’d still play it since you still salvage a push if they lose by a FG, but not at + 2.5.

Pick: Eagles + 3 or higher

Denver Broncos (-6, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Reynolds: This could be one of the biggest overreaction plays of the week, but you have to hold your nose to make it. The Denver Broncos averaged only 335 yards per game last year, but generated 420 in Teddy Bridgewater’s first start last Sunday in a 27-13 victory over the Giants as a three-point road chalk. Speaking of Bridgewater, he now moves to a 37-14 ATS career mark including a stellar 22-3 ATS mark on the road as a starter. That mark is now baked into the cake here.

The lookahead line at Westgate SuperBook was Denver -3 and was as low as -2.5 at other shops. Now it has jumped to -6 with a couple rogue -6.5s in the market. 

The Urban Meyer era got off to a rough start as Jacksonville as the Jaguars once trailed 34-7 before eventually falling 37-21 at likely fellow AFC South bottom feeder Houston. The Jaguars gave up 449 yards and allowed a 12-for-21 mark on third down. No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence showed flashes of brilliance and flashes of being a rookie with a pair of threes (3 TD, 3 INT). 

Perhaps Jacksonville was doomed before the game even started with CBS NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reporting on “The NFL Today” that there exists some discord between members of Meyer’s staff with a line being divided between the NFL lifer coaches and some of Meyer’s assistants that he coached with and against in the collegiate ranks. 

Even with how poorly Jacksonville looked last week and an inauspicious start for the Meyer regime both externally and internally, the Denver Broncos are being priced to the moon here. Before the regular season commenced, the Broncos win total was 7.5. It got a little support for the over once Bridgewater was named the starter, but the adjusted total is now 10.5. Slow your roll here. 

Pick: Jaguars + 6

New England Patriots (-5, 43) at New York Jets

Von Tobel: The Patriots might have lost in Week 1 but there are plenty of positives to take away from the 17-16 loss to the Dolphins. New England dominated the contest statistically, outgaining the Dolphins by 134 yards while averaging 5.6 yards per play, converting 11-of-16 third downs and putting up 49.1 yards per drive. Their pass rush was alive as well, pressuring Tua Tagovailoa on 27.6% of his dropbacks and forcing him to commit two turnover-worthy plays, one of which was picked off. The Patriots’ front seven should have a field day with an offensive line that is missing Mekhi Becton and which allowed 12 pressures on 46 dropbacks for Zach Wilson. New York is in a tough spot in this matchup and I expect Bill Belichick to continue his successful run against rookie quarterbacks (9-1 SU last 10 opportunities).

Pick: Patriots -5.5

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 51)

Youmans: This is a classic Week 2 overreaction situation. The Cardinals crushed the Titans 38-13 as Kyler Murray passed for four touchdowns and sparked MVP hype. The Vikings let down their betting backers by losing as favorites at Cincinnati, so the Minnesota bandwagon is suddenly empty. There was nothing wrong with the play of Kirk Cousins, who passed for 351 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, but Cousins is always a convenient punching bag. I power rate these teams as equals and like getting coach Mike Zimmer off a loss against an Arizona team that will have trouble duplicating its “A” game.

Pick: Vikings + 4.5

Tuley: The Cardinals routed the Titans 38-13 while the Vikings lost to the Bengals in OT. The advance line on this game last week was Cardinals -1, and the it went all the way up to 4.5 at most books. That looks like another classic overadjustment, so I had to take the Vikings plus the inflated points on principle. Once again, this dog didn’t make my five on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page, and hopefully that shows how selective I’m trying to be. While I know dogs are unlikely to go 12-4 ATS again, I couldn’t pass up this overadjustment. Now, since PSW came out, the market has adjusted a big with the line dropping to 3.5 at nearly all books as of Thursday afternoon, but anything over a FG is still a “take” on the Vikings.

Pick: Vikings + 4.5

Reynolds: The Cardinals ended up being my Week 1 Best Bet and it came in much easier than anticipated. Kyler Murray’s five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) were matched by another five on the defensive end as Chandler Jones sacked Ryan Tannehill five times. Arizona outgained Tennessee 424-248 (6.2 to 3.9 yards per play advantage). 

Now Arizona goes from a 2.5/3-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite against a Minnesota club that gained 403 yards and still lost at Cincinnati in overtime. Surprisingly, it was not the running game that carried the Vikings (Dalvin Cook 20 carries for just 61 yards). Kirk Cousins threw for 351 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Obviously, Cousins throwing 49 times is not the long-term recipe for success, but he was forced to do so due to 12 Minnesota penalties for 116 yards. In fact, the Vikings had five false start flags and four offensive holding infractions in the first half alone and that forced them to play from behind the entire game.

Something will have to give here as Arizona is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a home favorite, but the Vikings have failed to cover eight straight. The market has come in on Minnesota as the line has dropped to 3.5, but it is still worth a take north of 3. 

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 52)

Burke: The start of the Art Smith era could not have gone worse for the Falcons, who were blown out at home by the Eagles, a team projected to finish in last place in the NFC East. Atlanta managed just six points on 260 yards and only converted three of 14 third-down attempts.

The Buccaneers defense was a mess in Week 1 against the Cowboys, so that has to be a focal point this week for the team. The offense was humming right along, as Tom Brady and his friends racked up 6.7 yards per play and 31 points despite four turnovers.

Growing pains for Atlanta should make things really tough this week facing a Tampa Bay team that brought back just about everybody from the Super Bowl squad. The price on this game has fluctuated between 12 and 13 for the most part. There seems to be a higher level of equity in teasing double-digit favorites down below a touchdown in this era of higher totals.

The “Wong teaser” of crossing through 3 and 7 has long been a profitable strategy, but other numbers like 8, 9, 10 and 11 have been more important with higher-scoring games and also the longer extra point. In a game like this, Tampa Bay should have plenty of offensive success and should win, but you can always run into a backdoor situation or something of the like.

Therefore, at 12.5, teasing the Buccaneers down through the key number of 7 looks like a worthwhile endeavor. At 13, this doesn’t work, but you can find 12.5 out there in the market.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (two-team teaser with Cleveland -6.5)

Von Tobel: The market has this perception of Atlanta that they are an ‘over team’ but that has hardly been the case. Since Week 4 of last season the Falcons are 10-4 to the under and much of it has to do with an offense that has consistently been below average since the start of last season. This past Sunday, that trend continued when Atlanta managed just two field goal drives against Philadelphia in a 32-6 loss. The Falcons averaged 5.07 yards per play on their first two drives and just 8.55 yards per drive on their ensuing possessions. Their offensive line was among the worst in the league last week, allowing 18 pressures, 11 hurries, four hits and three sacks on just 44 total pass-blocking snaps. Tampa Bay should be able to do much of the same this week with an interior pass-rush that includes Vita Vea and William Gholston. Bettors should not expect much from the 13-point underdog this week and that should lead to another low-scoring affair for the Dirty Birds.

Pick: UNDER 52

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 54)

Tuley: Here’s another case of teams seemingly heading in opposite directions. The Titans looked like a shadow of their former selves in getting routed 38-13 by the Cardinals, while the Seahawks dominated the Colts 28-16. However, this line has gone only from Seahawks -4.5 to -5.5, so not enough to get me to jump on the dog.

Pick: Pass

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 55)

Tuley: The advance line for this game was Chargers -1.5. We all know the Chargers beat the Washington Football Team 20-16, but I actually thought the Cowboys’ 31-29 loss to the Buccaneers was a more impressive performance. I thought this line would go to pick-’em, but it went the other direction as oddsmakers re-opened the Chargers at -3 last Sunday and it’s been bet up to 3.5. I won’t complain and will gladly take the extra points and the insurance if the Chargers win a close game by a field goal or less.

Pick: Cowboys: + 3.5

Seidenberg: The Cowboys are coming into this game with no pass rushers. DeMarcus Lawrence is out for several weeks and Randy Gregory is in the Covid protocols. A make-shift defensive front will face a Chargers offensive line that looked great last week blocking the likes of Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Offensively for Dallas, Zack Martin will play, so that’s a positive, WR Michael Gallup is out and RT La’el Collins is suspended. All of this spells one thing for me: a Chargers win. On defense, they’ll be able to stop Ezekiel Elliott and put pressure on Dak Prescott. L.A. got pressure on eight of Washington’s 26 drop backs last week.

With one less weapon in Gallup being out, it should be easier for the defense to lock down on CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. The Cowboys allowed 379 passing yards a week ago and with the amount of passes that Justin Herbert will throw in this one, it’s safe to pencil him in for over 300 as well. This could be a high-scoring game, but I ultimately feel the Cowboys’ injuries, especially on defense, will limit them. I’ll take the Chargers to win it at home. 

Pick: Chargers -3.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 55) at Baltimore Ravens

Tuley: Both teams had tough openers that could have gone either way, with the Chiefs outlasting the Browns 33-29 and the Ravens losing to the Raiders 33-27 in overtime. It’s tempting to take the Ravens as home underdogs of more than a field goal, but I’m not sure counting on the Chiefs to fail two weeks in a row is the way to go. Instead, let’s look to the Over/Under of 55. That’s pretty high, but, you know, sometimes oddsmakers can’t make a total high enough. Seriously, would your opinion of this total be any different if the oddsmakers had set it at 59.5? These teams combined for 62 and 60 points, respectively, last week, and I don’t see any reason we won’t have another shootout.

Note: Overs started the season 3-0 in Week 1 prime-time games, though I preferred the Under in this week’s Thursday nighter.

Pick: Over 55

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