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Week 17 NFL power rankings: Watch out for Dallas

By Drew Dinsick  ( 


The drama thickens in the playoff races as we have huge questions still to be answered in both conferences regarding who will even be in the 14-team field, let alone the seeding and matchups. The three biggest winners last weekend were the Chiefs, who secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Steelers, who clinched a home playoff game by winning the AFC North, and the Ravens, who grabbed a spot (for now) thanks to losses by the Colts and Browns. The Packers seemed like they also were poised to clinch the No. 1 seed, but wins by the Seahawks and Saints have kept them from clinching ahead of a frisky matchup against the Bears in Week 17. Influential action on heavy favorites, including Tampa Bay, Chicago and Buffalo, won with virtually no sweat. The major market moves on totals were rewarded in general with some steam chasers getting exceptionally lucky on the Miami Over and the Dallas Over. Steam players got burned on the Green Bay Under with the total landing on 54 after getting beaten down during the week from 56 to 53 at kickoff.

The current power numbers and rankings across the NFL are tabulated here. These are my rankings based on a weighted sum of offense and defensive efficiency as measured by EPA per play with offense up-weighted relative to defense and passing up-weighted relative to running. These rankings reflect a two-thirds weight on 2020 game data and one-third weight on the market consensus win total prior, generally. They have also been adjusted for known injuries as we head into Week 17. There’s uncertainty around the quarterback situations for Washington, Arizona and the Rams, so those numbers are subjective. 

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