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Week 16 NFL trends

By Bruce Marshall  () 

VIKINGS at SAINTS

Saints had won nine in row SU, covered five straight and Under five consecutive before all those streaks ended the last two weeks vs. Eagles and Chiefs. Vikings 0-5 vs. line last five this year, on 8-4-2 Over run in 2020 and now Over 16-7-2 last 25 in regular season. Tech edge: Saints and Over, based on recent and totals trends.

BUCCANEERS at LIONS

Bucs Over 12-3 last 15 away from Raymond James. Lions Over 5-1 at home in 2020, Over 11-2 last 13 at Ford Field since early 2019. Tech edge: Over, based on totals trends.

49ERS at CARDINALS

Home game (sort of) for both. Niners 10-5 vs. spread last 15 as visitors. Cards have covered last two this year after five straight spread losses, though have played 49ers pretty tough (5-0-1 last six vs. spread). Cards 11-7-1 Under since late 2019. Tech edge: Slight to Cards, based on series trends.

DOLPHINS at RAIDERS

After losing to Chargers, Raiders 9-17-3 vs. spread in second halves of season since 2017. Vegas also Over 10-3-1 in 2020. Dolphins on 8-2 SU, 9-1 spread run last 10 this year, now 20-6 last 26 on board since early 2019. Tech edge: Dolphins and Over, based on team and totals trends.

BRONCOS at CHARGERS

Broncos have won and covered last three and four of last five meetings. Denver also 5-2 vs. line away in 2020, 9-4 last 13 vs. spread as visitor. Bolts 2-5-1 as chalk in 2020, 4-13-1 laying points since last season. Tech edge: Broncos, based on team and recent series trends.

BROWNS at JETS

Jets have covered five of last eight this season but still just 5-9 vs. line in 2020 and 6-13 last 19 on board since late 2019. These teams also Under in meetings each of last three seasons. Tech edge: Slight to Under, based on totals trends.

BENGALS at TEXANS

Even after beating Steelers on Monday night, Bengals 2-4 vs. line last six this year (1-5 SU) and Under 4-1 last five. Texans 5-8-1 as chalk since last season, also Under 5-1 last five in 2020. Tech edge: Under, based on totals trends.

COLTS at STEELERS

Colts 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 vs. line last six in 2020, also Over 4-2 last six. Steelers no covers last four in 2020 after Cincy loss on Monday night, also Under 4-1 last five. Tech edge: Colts, based on recent trends.

BEARS at JAGUARS

Bears 0-2 as chalk in 2020, no covers last eight laying points since early last year. Chicago also Under 25-11-1 since late 2018. Jaguars 4-3 vs. spread last seven in 2020, though not winning any of those outright. Tech edge: Jaguars and Under, based on team and totals trends.

PANTHERS at WASHINGTON

Ron Rivera vs. old employer. After cover at Green Bay, Panthers have covered last six on road, also 8-1 last nine as dogs. Tech edge: Panthers, based on team trends.

GIANTS at RAVENS

Into Browns on Sunday night, Giants 7-2-1 last 10 vs. line this year, also 6-0 as road dogs in 2020. N.Y. Under 9-3-1 this season as well. Ravens might be heating up again with covers last four. Tech edge: Giants and Under, based on team and totals trends.

FALCONS at CHIEFS

Chiefs on 0-5-1 spread skid. Falcons 6-2 Under last eight in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Falcons and Under, based on recent trends.

RAMS at SEAHAWKS

Rams have battered Seahawks last two meetings and have won five of last six SU in series. Seattle Under last six this year, Rams 10-4 Under in 2020. Tech edge: Rams and Under, based on series and totals trends.

EAGLES at COWBOYS

Eagles no covers last five and six of last seven on road. Dallas just 4-10 vs. line in 2020 and 2-5 vs. spread at home. Philadelphia has won and covered last two meetings but had lost and failed to cover previous four. Cowboys Over 4-1 last five this year, Eagles Over 2-0 with Jalen Hurts at QB. Tech edge: Over and slight to Eagles, based on totals and team trends.

TITANS at PACKERS

Titans Over 21-6 since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB midway through 2019. Tennessee has also covered five of last seven as dog. Pack only 4-6 vs. spread last 10 this year. Tech edge: Titans and Over, based on team and totals trends.

BILLS at PATRIOTS

Different circumstances in 2020, but Bill Belichick has long owned Bills and even covered first meeting this season. Now 5-2 last seven vs. spread in series and numbers stronger further back but not as applicable these days. Bills have won last four SU and covered last six in 2020, also Over 9-4-1 in 2020. Belichick 4-2 last six as dog this year (but 0-2 last two), 17-7 as dog since 2010. Pats Under 10-4 in 2020. Tech edge: Slight to Bills and Under, based on recent and totals trends.

 

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