Week 16 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

December 26, 2021 01:49 AM
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The playoff races continue to be impacted by COVID-19 outbreaks and the betting market remains in a major state of flux, as everybody waits with bated breath for the latest news. All we can do is go with what we know to be true and we have 14 games worth of stats and data points for all of these teams.

We also have betting trends. We’ve got the full 16-game schedule in Week 16 and trends on all of them, so let’s get to the games and the angles that are worthy of consideration.

San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

The 49ers and Titans are going in different directions and will have identical records if San Francisco can hold serve as the favorite tonight. The Niners are 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS on the season, to go along with a slight tilt towards the Over at 7-6-1. San Francisco started the season 2-4, but has gone 6-2 to be very much in the thick of the NFC playoff chase.

The Titans are 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS, but a lot of their solid, early-season wins are a mere memory based on what we’ve seen over the last several weeks. Tennessee is 7-7 on totals this season.

Trends:

  • 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • 49ers are 1-7-1 ATS in their previous nine games against the Titans.
  • 49ers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against the Titans.
  • 49ers are 6-2 SU in their previous eight games on the road.
  • 49ers are 4-1 SU in their last five games when playing on the road against the Titans.
  • 49ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
  • Over is 8-2 in the 49ers’ previous 10 games following an ATS win.
  • Over is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five Thursday games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ previous five against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Titans are 7-3 SU in their previous 10 games.
  • Titans are 5-1 SU in their last six games at home.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Titans’ previous five Thursday games.

More 49ers and Titans Trends

 

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 45.5)

The Browns are clearing more players each day after last week’s massive COVID outbreak left Cleveland with third-string QB Nick Mullens and a patchwork roster at other key positions. The Browns aren’t in must-win mode, but a win would be nice, as they are down to 7-7 SU and just 5-8-1 ATS on the season.

Green Bay is 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS as one of the top teams in both categories throughout the season. Green Bay is 8-6 to Under, while Cleveland has split 14 games down the middle with totals.

Trends:

  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games against Green Bay.
  • Browns are 2-5 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • Browns are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games this season.
  • Over is 6-1 in the Browns’ last seven games against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Packers are 11-2 ATS in their previous 13 games.
  • Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • Packers are 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games this season.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Packers’ last four games overall.

More Browns and Packers Trends

 

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 49)

The Colts and Cardinals have identical 9-5 ATS records and have been very good to bettors throughout the season. Arizona is two games better in the actual win-loss column at 10-4, but is tied with the Rams for the top spot in the NFC West. The Colts are watching the Titans closely, as a loss on Thursday coupled with a slight upset win here would create a tie atop the AFC South.

The Colts are 8-6 SU and also 8-6 to the Over on the season. The Cardinals are 7-7 with their game totals to this point.

Trends:

  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Colts are 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games overall.
  • Colts are 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 6-0 in the Colts’ previous six road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 11-1 in the Colts’ last 12 games against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 home games.
  • Cardinals are 2-7 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ previous seven games following an ATS loss.

More Colts and Cardinals Trends

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 43) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are playing out the string on the season and have decided to keep going with Cam Newton, even though Sam Darnold is ready to return. Carolina is just 5-9 SU and ATS and doesn’t appear likely to improve upon those records in this game against the heavily-favored Buccaneers.

That being said, Tampa Bay is without Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette and could also be without Mike Evans. The Buccaneers are 10-4 SU, but just 7-7 ATS on the season. Both teams have 7-7 records with their totals as well.

Trends:

  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games against the Panthers.
  • Buccaneers are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
  • Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games following a SU loss.
  • Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • Under is 5-0 in the Buccaneers’ previous five games against a team with a losing record.

 

  • Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in the Panthers’ last five games overall.

More Bucs and Panthers Trends

 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 41)

All of the sudden, the Eagles find themselves in the throes of the playoff hunt at 7-7. The weak schedule was a big talking point for Philadelphia a few weeks ago and now the Eagles have the chance to make it come to fruition. They’re a double-digit favorite against a Giants team that has shut down Daniel Jones and is only 4-10 SU on the year.

The Giants are also just 6-8 ATS, while the Eagles are 7-6-1 against the number. Head coach Nick Sirianni did test positive for COVID, so we’ll see if that impacts the Eagles, who are 8-6 to the Over. The Giants are 9-4-1 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games against the Eagles.
  • Giants are 0-7 SU in their last seven games when playing on the road against the Eagles.
  • Giants are 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 10-1 in the Giants’ last 11 against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 9-1-1 in the Giants’ previous 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.

 

  • Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the NFC.
  • Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Under is 13-3 in the Eagles’ last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record.

More Giants and Eagles Trends

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-10, 45.5) at Houston Texans

The Chargers are another double-digit favorite on the betting board for this week against the Texans. Los Angeles is 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS on the year. This feels like a big number for a team that has some mild COVID issues and also hasn’t played up to expectations a lot, but we’ll see how this one plays out.

The Texans are only 3-11 SU, but they’ve played pretty well in the back half of the season, all things considered. Houston is 6-8 ATS on the year. The Texans are 8-6 to the Under, while the Chargers have split their 14 totals down the middle.

Trends:

  • Chargers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Chargers are 12-6 SU in their previous 18 games.
  • Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Texans.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ previous six road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last five games overall.

 

  • Texans are 4-8 ATS in their previous 12 games.
  • Texans are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Texans’ previous four games following an ATS win.

More Chargers and Texans Trends

 

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 43)

The Lions have an ugly win-loss record, but they’ve been one of the best teams in the NFL from an ATS standpoint and continue to play extremely hard week in and week out. This week, though, the Lions may be without Jared Goff, who tested positive for COVID-19. Detroit is 2-11-1 SU, but 9-5 ATS.

The Falcons are 6-8 SU and ATS, as things got off to a very slow start for Arthur Smith in his first year at the helm. The Falcons are technically still on the fringes of the playoff race, but it would take a series of unlikely events. The Lions are 9-5 to the Under and the Falcons are 8-6 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • Lions are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games against the Falcons.
  • Lions are 0-7-1 SU in their last eight games on the road.
  • Lions are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games this season.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Lions’ last six games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Lions’ previous six road games.

 

  • Falcons are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Falcons are 1-7 SU in their previous eight games at home.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Falcons’ last six games overall.

More Lions and Falcons Trends

 

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 44.5)

This is a massive, enormous, huge AFC North matchup with tons of playoff implications and interest. The teams have identical 8-6 records and are tied atop the AFC North Division. The Ravens will get Lamar Jackson back for this one, so we’ll see if they are the team to move to 9-6 or if they suffer a playoff setback.

Baltimore is 7-7 ATS and the Bengals are 7-6-1 ATS. Cincinnati is 7-6-1 to the Under and Baltimore is down the middle at 7-7. These two teams have very similar profiles and this swing game is a big one.

Trends:

  • Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Ravens are 2-4 SU in their previous six games.
  • Ravens are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Bengals.
  • Ravens are 5-11 SU in their previous 16 games when playing on the road against the Bengals.
  • Ravens are 4-2 ATS in their last six games this season.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Ravens’ previous six games as a road underdog.

 

  • Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 7-1-1 in the Bengals’ last nine games as a home favorite.

More Ravens and Bengals Trends

 

Los Angeles Rams (-3, 49) at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings were dealt some tough news on Thursday with a positive COVID test for Dalvin Cook as they look to improve their playoff hopes against the Rams. The Vikings currently hold the No. 7 spot in the NFC with a record of 7-7. They are 8-6 ATS, a record that would certainly look better as a straight-up mark.

The Rams are 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS as they play two really tough back-to-back road games and kick off this one with a very short week. Los Angeles is 7-7 ATS on the season and 7-6-1 to the Over. The Vikings are 8-6 to the Over and this total may be trending up a bit.

Trends:

  • Rams are 10-4 SU in their previous 14 games.
  • Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Vikings.
  • Rams are 1-5 SU in their previous six games against the Vikings.
  • Rams are 5-2 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • Rams are 1-6 SU in their previous seven games when playing on the road against the Vikings.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in the Rams’ last nine games following an ATS win.

 

  • Vikings are 4-2 SU in their previous six games.
  • Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as an underdog.
  • Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Vikings’ last five games overall.

More Rams and Vikings Trends

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (PK, 41.5)

Most of the Week 16 games have big playoff implications. This game has big NFL Draft implications. The Jaguars are 2-12 SU and the Jets are 3-11 SU. Both teams are also 4-10 ATS, so they’ve been burning bankrolls for backers, but have served as economic stimuli for those that have been fading.

The Jaguars have also been a cash cow for Under bettors with 11 of those out of 14 games. The Jets are 8-6 to the Over, but the offense has been quite poor since Zach Wilson took over for Mike White.

Trends:

  • Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • Jaguars are 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 games against the Jets.
  • Jaguars are 2-4 SU in their last six games against the Jets.
  • Jets are 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 games.
  • Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • Under is 6-0 in the Jaguars’ previous six games as a road underdog.

 

  • Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
  • Jets are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games following an ATS win.
  • Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Jets’ previous four games following an ATS win.

More Jaguars and Jets Trends

 

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-2.5, 43.5)

The much anticipated rematch between the Bills and Patriots will have much better weather than the first meeting and could very well be the game that decides the AFC East Division. Buffalo trails by a game in the standings and also lost the first meeting, so this is a very big game. The Bills are 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS on the year.

The Patriots are 9-5 SU and 9-5 ATS. They suffered a setback last week against the Colts, but can make up for it here by opening up a two-game lead with the tiebreaker well in hand. The Bills are 7-7 with totals and the Patriots are 8-6 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Patriots.
  • Bills are 3-17 SU in their previous 20 games when playing on the road against the Patriots.
  • Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
  • Over is 7-0 in the Bills’ previous seven games as an underdog.
  • Over is 5-0 in the Bills’ last five games as a road underdog.

 

  • Over is 4-0 in the Patriots’ previous four home games.
  • Patriots are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games when playing at home against the Bills.
  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games this season.

More Bills and Patriots Trends

 

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 43)

Ugly weather is in the forecast for what is forecasted to be an ugly game between the Bears and Seahawks. Chicago is just 4-10 SU and also 4-10 ATS as the end of the Matt Nagy era seems imminent. The Bears are also 9-5 to the Under, which is not a good look for a coach whose background is on offense.

The Seahawks are just 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS. It has been a throwaway year for the Seahawks, but Seattle has a lot of soul-searching to do in the NFL’s best division. The Seahawks are 10-4 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
  • Bears are 1-8 SU in their previous nine games.
  • Bears are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games against the Seahawks.
  • Under is 9-4 in the Bears’ previous 13 games overall.

 

  • Under is 10-2 in the Seahawks’ last 12 games following an ATS loss.
  • Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Seahawks are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their previous six games when playing at home against the Bears.
  • Under is 10-2 in the Seahawks’ last 12 games following an ATS loss.
  • Under is 20-8 in the Seahawks’ previous 28 games overall.

More Bears and Seahawks Trends

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)

The Chiefs have a lot of COVID issues this week and there are a lot of questions about who will actually be available for the team. High winds are expected at Arrowhead Stadium, so those absences and the weather could push this total down even further.

Kansas City is 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS. The Steelers are 7-6-1 SU and 6-8 ATS. The Chiefs have split their totals down the middle in 14 games and the Steelers have played one more Under than Over on the year.

Trends:

  • Steelers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Chiefs.
  • Steelers are 6-2 SU in their previous eight games against the Chiefs.
  • Steelers are 1-4 SU in their last five games on the road.
  • Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games following a SU win.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Steelers’ last seven games following an ATS win.

 

  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games.
  • Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games at home.
  • Chiefs are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ previous five home games.

More Steelers and Chiefs Trends

 

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (PK, 42)

The Broncos will be without Teddy Bridgewater, who is in concussion protocol for this monster AFC West matchup. The Broncos are 7-7 SU and 7-6-1 ATS on the season. The bigger note about the season results for Denver is a record of 11-3 to the Under.

The Raiders are also 7-7 SU, but they have not been nearly as kind to bettors with a 5-9 ATS mark. The Raiders have split their 14 totals and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see an under here with Drew Lock at the helm.

Trends:

  • Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Raiders.
  • Broncos are 1-5 SU in their previous six games against the Raiders.
  • Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on the road against the Raiders.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Broncos’ previous eight games overall.

 

  • Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Raiders are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games.
  • Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC West.
  • Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their previous six home games.
  • Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Over is 8-3 in the Raiders’ previous 11 home games.

More Broncos and Raiders Trends

 

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 47)

The Cowboys are big favorites on what is a short week for Washington after losing to the Eagles on Tuesday night. Washington is just 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS and has no real shot at making the postseason with that loss on Tuesday. The Football Team is 8-6 to the Under.

The Cowboys are 10-4 SU and have been among the league’s best all season long against the spread. Dallas is 11-3 ATS, but will have to cover as a double-digit favorite here. The Cowboys are also 8-6 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • Washington is 4-2 SU in their previous six games.
  • Washington is 3-6 ATS in their last nine games against the Cowboys.
  • Washington is 3-8 SU in their previous 11 games against the Cowboys.
  • Under is 7-2 in the Football Team’s last nine games as an underdog.

 

  • Cowboys are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • Cowboys are 10-3 SU in their previous 13 games.
  • Cowboys are 4-0 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight home games.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Cowboys’ last eight games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Cowboys’ previous six games as a favorite.

More Washington and Cowboys Trends

 

Miami Dolphins (-3, 38) at New Orleans Saints

Former Notre Dame QB Ian Book will make his first NFL start for the Saints, who continue to deal with some major COVID issues. The Dolphins, who need a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt, look to have caught a big break for Monday Night Football here. Both teams are 7-7 SU and 7-7 ATS on the season. Both are also 8-6 to the Under.

The Saints have played musical chairs at QB all season long, but with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill in protocols, they’ve certainly reached a new low for this week.

Trends:

  • Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four games following an ATS loss.
  • Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
  • Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 5-2 in the Dolphins’ last seven games overall.

 

  • Saints are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite.
  • Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on fieldturf.
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their previous five home games.
  • Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday games.
  • Over is 7-3 in the Saints’ previous 10 Monday games.

More Dolphins and Saints Trends

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