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Week 15 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

December 17, 2021 09:41 PM
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COVID cases are on the rise across the NFL, as the league scrambles to figure out what to do with so many games that have important playoff implications this week and in subsequent weeks. So far, all games are set to go as scheduled, but the situation is very fluid.

For now, we have to assume everything goes as planned, which means handicapping with the information at our disposal. That includes this list of betting trends.

Las Vegas Raiders (-4, 37.5) at Cleveland Browns

One of the games most affected by COVID is this one, as the Browns are down to Nick Mullens at quarterback and have more than 20 players on the reserve/COVID list. This line was as high as Browns -6.5 at one point, but has seen more than a 10-point swing.

The Browns are 7-6 and are still pretty much in must-win territory, against all odds this weekend. The Raiders are 6-7 SU and have no margin for error left. The Browns are just 4-8-1 ATS and the Raiders are 5-8 ATS. Both teams are 7-6 to the Over.

Trends:

  • Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Raiders are 4-2 SU in their previous six games against the Browns.
  • Raiders are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Raiders’ previous six games as an underdog.
  • Over is 9-2 in the Raiders’ last 11 games following a SU loss.

 

  • Browns are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • Browns are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games following a SU win.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Browns’ last four games against a team with a losing record.

More Raiders and Browns Trends

 

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 45.5)

Both of Saturday’s games are loaded with playoff intrigue. The Colts have gradually moved into a bigger favorite role against the Patriots as the betting action has come in for this one. Indy is 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS. The Patriots have been one of the best teams to back this season, going 9-4 SU and ATS to this point.

The Colts are 8-5 to the Over and the Patriots are 7-6 to the Under for this big primetime battle.

Trends:

  • Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games against the Colts.
  • Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Colts.
  • Patriots are 6-0 SU in their previous six games on the road.
  • Patriots are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
  • Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games following a bye week.
  • Over is 9-2-1 in the Patriots’ last 12 Saturday games.

 

  • Colts are 7-3 ATS in their previous 10 games.
  • Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • Under is 11-4 in Colts previous 15 Saturday games.

More Patriots and Colts Trends

 

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 44)

Washington is the most impacted team by COVID this week from a numbers standpoint, as the Football Team will be missing a lot of players on both sides of the ball. Washington is on a nice, little roll, but now faces long odds because of the illness. The Football Team is 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS on the season, along with an 8-5 mark to the Under.

The Eagles are also 6-7 SU, but 7-6 ATS on the season. It looks as though Philadelphia may not have the services of Jalen Hurts, as Gardner Minshew is preparing to start again. Philadelphia is 7-6 to the Over.

Trends:

  • Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Washington is 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games against the Eagles.
  • Washington is 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Eagles.
  • Washington is 7-3 SU in their previous 10 games on the road.
  • Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • Under is 7-1 in Washington’s previous eight games overall.

 

  • Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their previous 10 games following a bye week.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last five games following a bye week.
  • Under is 7-2 in the Eagles’ previous nine games as a home favorite.
  • Washington is 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
  • Over is 5-2 in the previous seven meetings in Philadelphia.

More Washington and Eagles Trends

 

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5, 44)

The Bills are a heavy favorite at home with the Panthers in town. Buffalo is 7-6 SU and 7-6 ATS to this point in this season, which is not what anybody expected. This is a must-win game based on the spread and the opponent with how tight things are in the AFC playoff race.

The Panthers are 5-8 SU and ATS on the season. They don’t have any playoff hopes and are going to have to find a better solution at QB after the season. They are 7-6 to the Under, but have gotten really poor offensive returns over the last several weeks.

Trends:

  • Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Panthers are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games against the Bills.
  • Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
  • Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games this season.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games overall.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Panthers’ previous seven games as a road underdog.

 

  • Bills are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Bills are 10-3 SU in their previous 13 games at home.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Bills’ last seven home games against a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 9-2 in the Bills’ previous 11 games following a SU loss.

More Panthers and Bills Trends

 

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 41.5)

The Dolphins add to the list of big favorites this week for their matchup with the Jets. This is Miami’s biggest favorite role of the season and the Dolphins have dug out of an early hole to have a small shot at a playoff berth. Miami is 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS on the season. The Dolphins are 8-5 to the Under thus far.

The Jets are 3-10 SU and ATS on the season. New York’s offense has disappeared since Mike White was benched with the return of Zach Wilson. The Jets are still 7-6 to the Over, but that has a lot more to do with low totals than anything else.

Trends:

  • Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Jets are 0-7 ATS in their previous seven games against the Dolphins.
  • Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • Jets are 0-5 SU in their previous five games when playing on the road against the Dolphins.
  • Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Jets are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Over is 7-3 in the Jets’ last 10 games as an underdog.

 

  • Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games at home.
  • Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.
  • Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games following a SU win.

More Jets and Dolphins Trends

 

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5, 44.5) at New York Giants

The Cowboys are still among the league’s best teams at covering spreads as they head up to the Meadowlands. Dallas is 10-3 ATS to go along with a 9-4 SU record and has a hammer-lock on the NFC East Division. Now it’s about trying to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Cowboys are 7-6 to the Under.

The Giants are just 4-9 SU as they send out Mike Glennon once again. They are 6-7 ATS, though, and have been really good to Under bettors with an 8-4-1 record in that department.

Trends:

  • Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their previous nine games against the Giants.
  • Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • Cowboys are 6-3 SU in their previous nine games when playing on the road against the Giants.
  • Cowboys are 6-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last four road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys’ previous seven games overall.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys’ last seven games as a road favorite.

 

  • Giants are 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Giants are 0-5 ATS in their previous five games in December.
  • Under is 8-0-1 in the Giants’ last nine games as a home underdog.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in the Giants’ previous four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

More Cowboys and Giants Trends

 

Tennessee Titans (-1, 42.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the more competitive lines for this week is the battle in the Steel City between the Titans and Steelers. Tennessee is a short favorite, bringing a 9-4 SU record to the game. The Titans are 8-5 ATS on the season and 7-6 to the Over.

The Steelers are 6-6-1 SU and just 5-8 ATS on the year. Pittsburgh hasn’t been overly impressive this season at most points, but remains in the playoff hunt. The Under is 7-6 in Pittsburgh games this season.

Trends:

  • Titans are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Titans are 7-2 SU in their previous nine games.
  • Titans are 2-6 SU in their last eight games against Pittsburgh.
  • Titans are 1-4 SU in their previous five games when playing on the road against the Steelers.
  • Over is 5-0 in the Titans’ last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Titans’ previous six games as a road favorite.

 

  • Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Steelers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 8-3 in the Steelers’ previous 11 games as a home underdog.
  • Under is 5-2 in the Steelers’ last seven home games.

More Titans and Steelers Trends

 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5, 39.5)

The line on this game jumped when Urban Meyer was fired after midnight on Thursday morning. This is a battle of 2-11 teams that have also struggled badly against the spread. The Texans are just 5-8 ATS and the Jaguars are 4-9 against the number. The Jags are also 11-2 to the Under, while the Texans are 8-5 to the Under, hence the low total here of 39.5.

This is about the only game without some sort of playoff intrigue this week, but has taken on a much more interesting vibe with Meyer out of the picture.

Trends:

  • Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Texans are 1-11 SU in their previous 12 games.
  • Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Jaguars.
  • Texans are 7-0 SU in their previous seven games against the Jaguars.
  • Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss.
  • Texans are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as an underdog.
  • Under is 5-0 in the Texans’ last five games as a road underdog.

 

  • Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.
  • Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games overall.
  • Under is 6-0 in the Jaguars’ last six games against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ previous four home games.
  • Under is 10-1 in the Jaguars’ last 11 games following a SU loss.

More Texans and Jaguars Trends

 

Arizona Cardinals (-13, 47.5) at Detroit Lions

The spread is an interesting thing, isn’t it? The Lions are 8-5 ATS. The Cardinals are 9-4 ATS. Arizona is 10-3 SU and Detroit is 1-11-1 SU. Both teams have been kind to bettors, but one has won a lot more games than the other. This is about as big of a mismatch as it gets from a wins and losses standpoint, hence the big spread.

The Cardinals are 7-6 to the Over and the Lions are 8-5 to the Under as this matchup looms.

Trends:

  • Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games.
  • Cardinals are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
  • Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their previous seven games on the road.
  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Cardinals’ previous eight games as a road favorite.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six games following an ATS loss.

 

  • Lions are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games.
  • Lions are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at home.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Lions‘ previous four games following an ATS loss.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Lions’ last four against a team with a winning record.

More Cardinals and Lions Trends

 

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-9, 46)

One of the few games not affected by COVID is this one, as the Falcons head west to battle the 49ers. San Francisco is a big favorite in a big game with a lot of NFC Wild Card implications in the balance. The 49ers are 7-6 SU and 7-5-1 ATS on the season.

The Falcons are actually 6-7 SU, which is something that has really flown under the radar after a pretty awful start. Atlanta is 6-7 ATS as well. The Niners are 7-5-1 to the Over, while the Falcons are 7-6 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Falcons are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
  • Falcons are 6-3 SU in their previous nine games against the 49ers.
  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Falcons are 3-12 SU in their previous 15 games when playing on the road against the 49ers.
  • Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
  • Falcons are 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ previous five games overall.

 

  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • 49ers are 2-8 SU in their previous 10 games at home.
  • Over is 8-1 in the 49ers’ last 9 games following an ATS win.
  • Over is 8-2 in the 49ers’ last 10 games following a SU win.

More Falcons and 49ers Trends

 

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3, 44)

This is another one of the “fuller” handicaps, in the sense that COVID isn’t having an enormous impact on this game. The Broncos are a clear home favorite after some books opened the Bengals as chalk. Both teams are 7-6 SU going into this one, so the playoff importance is off the charts.

The Bengals are 6-6-1 ATS and the Broncos are 7-5-1 against the number. Denver is 10-3 to the Under, while the Bengals are 6-6-1 with their 13 game totals.

Trends:

  • Bengals are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Bengals are 4-16 SU in their previous 20 games against the Broncos.
  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • Bengals are 1-10 SU in their previous 11 games when playing on the road against the Broncos.
  • Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss.
  • Under is 14-5-2 in the Bengals’ previous 21 games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Bengals’ last seven games overall.

 

  • Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Broncos’ previous seven games overall.

More Bengals and Broncos Trends

 

Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Opinions have soured rather quickly on the Ravens, who are just 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS, as Lamar Jackson attempts to come back from a sprained ankle. The Packers are also one of the best teams against the spread this season with a record of 10-2-1. They are also 10-3 SU and lead the NFC North by a comfortable margin heading into this one.

Green Bay is 8-5 to the Under and Baltimore is 7-6 to the Under. We’ve got a low total for this game as well.

Trends:

  • Packers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Packers are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games against the Ravens.
  • Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Packers are 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 games this season.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Packers last five road games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Packers’ previous five road games against a team with a winning home record.

 

  • Ravens are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • Ravens are 8-1 SU in their previous nine games at home.
  • Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
  • Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Ravens’ last five games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Ravens’ previous five games following a straight up loss.
  • Over is 8-3 in the Ravens’ last 11 home games.
  • Under is 5-2 in the Ravens’ previous seven games against a team with a winning record.

More Packers and Ravens Trends

 

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 45)

This game has been greatly impacted by COVID, as we’ve seen a huge dip in the total with cases at the skill positions for both teams. The Rams are 9-4 SU after a huge win over the Cardinals last week, a win that finally gave the Rams a quality victory over a solid opponent.

The Seahawks aren’t really a solid opponent with a 5-8 SU record, but they’ve played better of late with back-to-back covers to improve to 7-6 ATS. The Rams are 6-7 ATS and 7-5-1 to the Over, while the Seahawks are 9-4 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Seahawks are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games.
  • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games against the Rams.
  • Seahawks are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Rams.
  • Seahawks are 1-6 SU in their previous seven games when playing on the road against the Rams.
  • Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games as a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Seahawks’ previous four games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Seahawks’ last six games against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Rams are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Rams are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games.
  • Rams are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as a favorite.
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the Rams’ last eight games following an ATS win.

More Seahawks and Rams Trends

 

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 46.5)

The Saints and Bucs square off in an NFC South rivalry game on Sunday Night Football. The Bucs are up to 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS, as they seem to have rounded into form and may very well represent the NFC in the Super Bowl yet again. They are 7-6 to the Over on the season.

The Saints are 6-7 SU, ATS and on totals, with one more Under than Over on the season. They’ve been mediocre, as the record suggests, though Sean Payton has done a good job in the face of injuries and a team without good quarterback play.

Trends:

  • Saints are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Saints are 1-5 SU in their previous six games.
  • Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Buccaneers.
  • Saints are 6-1 SU in their previous seven games against the Buccaneers.
  • Saints are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
  • Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
  • Under is 6-2 in the Saints’ previous eight games against the NFC South.
  • Under is 11-4 in the Saints’ last 15 games following a SU win.

 

  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Buccaneers are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games.
  • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five home games.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Buccaneers’ last four games against a team with a losing record.

More Saints and Bucs Trends

 

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 44) at Chicago Bears

The Vikings and Bears will do battle on Monday Night Football to finish up Week 15. The Vikings are 6-7 SU and have suffered some backbreaking losses this season that have prevented the team from getting into serious playoff contention. They are 7-6 ATS and 8-5 to the Over.

The Bears are 4-9 SU and ATS and seem to be playing out the string on this season and Matt Nagy’s tenure as head coach. Chicago is 8-5 to the Under and we’ll have to see what the weather holds for Soldier Field on Monday.

Trends:

  • Vikings are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games against the Bears.
  • Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
  • Vikings are 0-7 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Vikings’ previous four games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Vikings’ last four games as a road favorite.

 

  • Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • Bears are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games following a ATS loss.
  • Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Bears’ last five games as an underdog.

More Vikings and Bears Trends

 

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