It was another wild week of NFL betting, and a mixed day for sportsbooks with several reporting small wins before the result of the Sunday Night game. Favorites are 4-9-1 against the spread in Week 15, and overs are 9-5.
The biggest upset of the day and the biggest win at many sportsbooks was the New York Jets beating the Los Angeles 23-20 as 17-point underdogs. Check out our newser here on how it impacted sportsbooks.
-- Ben Fawkes
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 52.5)
The Thursday nighter was a back-and-forth shootout, as expected. The Chargers led 7-0, the Raiders went up 10-7 and the Chargers took a 17-10 lead at halftime before the game was tied 17-17 in the third quarter. Marcus Mariota (filling in for the injured Derek Carr) scored on a 2-yard TD run to tie the game again at 24-24 to send it to overtime. The Raiders marched 70 yards on 14 plays on the opening drive of OT but had to settle for a Daniel Carlson field goal. Justin Herbert scored on a 1-yard QB sneak with 1:29 left in the extra session for the 30-27 victory at 155 on the money line (and also put it Over the betting total on the winning TD).
Final score: Chargers 30, Raiders 27 (OT)
ATS winner: Chargers
Total: Over 52.5
Buffalo Bills (-6, 48) at Denver Broncos
Josh Allen threw two first-half TD passes and ran for another as the Bills built a 21-7 lead. The Broncos scored a TD right before halftime to threaten to make a game of it, but Allen added his second rushing TD on the Bills’ opening drive of the second half and Jerry Hughes returned a fumble 21 yards for a defensive TD as the Bills went up 35-13 just over four minutes into the third quarter and coasted from there. The game went Over the betting total on Tyler Bass’ 27-yard FG with 44 seconds left in the third quarter.
Final score: Bills 48, Broncos 19
ATS winner: Bills
Total: Over 48
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 53)
This looked like a rout, as the Packers scored TDs on their first three possessions, with Aaron Rodgers hitting Robert Tonyan on a 1-yard TD pass, Rodgers running 6 yards for a TD and Aaron Jones adding an 8-yard TD rush for a 21-3 halftime lead. But the Carolina defense stepped up in the second half as the Packers ended up with just 291 yards of total offense, and Jones (145 rushing yards) actually had more rushing yards than Rodgers had passing yards (143). Teddy Bridgewater scored on a 13-yard TD run with 5:15 left in the third quarter and Joey Slye kicked a 22-yard FG with 8:39 left to get the Panthers within one score (and within the spread) at 21-13. Mason Crosby kicked a 51-yard FG with 3:39 to play and Packer backers had to think they were going to cover after all -- but Slye kicked a 33-yard FG with 2:04 left to get the cover for Carolina bettors.
Final score: Packers 24, Panthers 16
ATS winner: Panthers
Total: Under 53
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5, 52.5)
The Colts took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter to get over the spread, but then the Texans outscored them 10-0 in the second quarter to make it 14-10 at halftime and stayed within the spread the rest of the game. The Texans actually tied the game at 20 on Deshaun Watson’s 9-yard pass to Keke Coutee with 7:25 to play. Philip Rivers drove the Colts 75 yards in 12 plays and capped it with a 5-yard TD pass to Pascal to put the Colts ahead 27-20 (but still not covering). Watson drove the Texans into scoring position and it looked like they were going to force OT or have a chance to go for the upset with a 2-point conversion, but Coutee was stripped by LB Darius Leonard fighting for the potential TD and the Colts recovered in the end zone to secure the win. A TD also would have cashed for Over bettors, but it stayed Under.
Final score: Colts 27, Texans 20
ATS winner: Texans
Total: Under 52.5
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-8.5, 54)
The final score here is a bit misleading, as the Lions were actually pretty competitive early in this game. Well, they did fall behind 21-7 as the Titans got a TD from Derrick Henry on a 3-yard run, Corey Davis on a 75-yard pass from Ryan Tannehill and a 17-yard run by Tannehill, but the Lions were trying to get back in the game when D’Andre Swift fumbled while trying to go over the top at the Titans’ 1-yard line. The Lions sacked Tannehill for a safety and Swift followed that up with a 2-yard TD run on the next possession to pull the Lions within 21-15. Then, after falling behind 24-15, the Lions were driving again and TE T.J. Hockenson ran for an apparent first down, but Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel challenged that there was a fumble on the play and the Titans got the ball and stole any momentum.
The Titans went over all spreads on this game (it was Titans -11 earlier in the week before Matthew Stafford was cleared to play for Detroit) on Tannehill’s 3-yard TD run with 14:30 remaining and put it Over the betting total on his 2-yard TD pass to A.J. Brown with 9 minutes left.
Final score: Titans 46, Lions 25
ATS winner: Titans
Total: Over 54
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 49.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta led 17-0 at halftime and the two teams traded TDs through the first half of the third quarter to put the Falcons ahead 24-7, and of course everyone was thinking of the Falcons’ infamous collapse against Tom Brady and the Patriots in Super Bowl LI. Right on cue, Brady hit Godwin on a 4-yard TD pass and Leonard Fournette scored on a 1-yard TD run to pull the Bucs within 24-21 before the end of the third quarter. Ryan Succop tied the game with a 27-yard FG with 11:10 to play and Younghoe Koo kicked a 52-yarder to put the Falcons back ahead 27-24 (and the game Over the total) with 8:22 to play, but then Brady hit Antonio Brown for a 46-yard TD pass with 6:19 left for Brown’s first TD of the season and the game-winner.
The Bucs had a chance to cover the spread late when the Falcons turned the ball over on downs deep in their own territory. It appeared that Fournette was stopped short on third down and that the Bucs might kick the FG to go up by 7, but the officials on the field spotted it for a first down and the replay official let it stand. With the first down, Brady took a knee to secure the non-covering win.
Final score: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 27
ATS winner: Falcons
Total: Over 49.5
New England Patriots (-1, 40.5) at Miami Dolphins
This game actually had a change in favoritism as the Dolphins were short favorites all week (and, in fact, were one of the Top 5 picks in both the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest at -1.5 and -2, respectively) but all the late money came in on the Patriots to have them close -1. The Patriots looked like the better team early, frustrating Tua Tagovailoa and leading 6-0 at halftime. Miami also had its share of bad breaks as it had a fumble return for a TD overturned by replay (an out-of-bounds player touched a loose ball) and a fake FG also called back, but the Dolphins took a 7-6 lead on a 1-yard TD run by Salvon Ahmed (122 yards rushing) with 10:32 left on the opening drive of the third quarter. After Nick Folk put the Patriots back ahead 9-7 with a 45-yard FG, Tagovailoa put the Dolphins ahead again at 15-9 with his 3-yard TD run (and a two-point conversion pass to Ahmed on a hook-and-lateral) with 12:55 to play. Folk kicked his fourth FG to complete all the Patriots’ scoring before Tagovailoa added a 1-yard TD run late to secure the minor upset at 105 on the money line.
Final score: Dolphins 22, Patriots 12
ATS winner: Dolphins
Total: Under 40.5
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 44) at Washington Football Team
The Washington defense did a pretty good job of containing Russell Wilson (18-for-27, just 121 yards and 1 TD), but the Seahawks were still able to jump out to a 13-0 lead in the second quarter on Wilson’s 10-yard TD pass to Jacob Hollister. The Seahawks then extended their lead to 20-3 on Carlos Hyde’s 50-yard TD run on the opening drive of the second half. Washington mounted a rally and pulled within 20-15 with 7:16 to play on Dwayne Haskins’ 6-yard TD pass to RB J.D. McKissic (the two-point conversion failed). The usually porous Seattle D, which also intercepted two earlier passes, stopped Washington’s final drive that got as far as the Seattle 23-yard line.
Washington covered against the closer number, though a lot of earlier bettors pushed, including entrants in the Westgate SuperContest, which used a line of Seattle -5 (Circa had Seattle -5.5, so those players lost). Seattle backers earlier in the week cashed if they laid between -3.5 and -4.5.
Final score: Seahawks 20, Football Team 15
ATS winner: Football Team
Total: Under 44
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47)
Mitchell Trubisky put the Bears in front early with an 8-yard TD pass to Darnell Mooney and then David Montgomery carried the load with a career-high 146 rushing yards and two TDs. The Bears led 20-7 late in the first half before a Dan Bailey FG just before halftime and a 1-yard TD run by Dalvin Cook on the Vikings’ opening drive of the second half cut the Bears’ lead to 20-17. Montgomery scored his second TD in the third quarter to put them back ahead 27-17. The Bears kept the Vikings from getting the lead with a pair of Cairo Santos FGs in the fourth quarter, the first of which put the Bears ahead 30-20 with 13:33 to play (and put the game Over the betting total) while the second one extended the Bears lead to 33-27 after the Vikings had moved within 30-27 on Kirk Cousins’ 20-yard TD pass to Tyler Conklin. However, the 130 upset on the money line wasn’t clinched until the Bears intercepted a Hail Mary as time expired to keep their wild-card hopes alive.
Final score: Bears 33, Vikings 27
ATS winner: Bears
Total: Over 47
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5, 48.5)
Lamar Jackson threw an interception on the Ravens’ opening possession, but it still led to points with a safety by the defense. Jackson (17-for-22, 243 yards, 3 TDs) and the offense took over from there with scores on their next four possessions (TD, TD, FG, TD) to build a 26-0 lead at halftime. The Jaguars actually looked like they might make a game of it (or at least get close to covering) as Gardner Minshew II hit RB James Robinson with a 17-yard TD pass on the opening drive of the second half and then moved the Jags to the Ravens’ 13-yard line with a chance to get within two scores, but Minshew fumbled to end the threat and the Ravens blew the game open from there. With the Ravens leading 40-7, Minshew hit Chris Conley with a 13-yard TD pass to put the game Over the total with just 1:44 to play.
Final score: Ravens 40, Jaguars 14
ATS winner: Ravens
Total: Over 48.5
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 45.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard rushed for 69 yards and 2 TDs in place of Ezekiel Elliott, the first being a 1-yarder to put the Cowboys ahead 7-0 early and the second being a 40-yarder to put the Cowboys ahead 34-24 with just 2:27 to play. The Cowboys had led 14-0 before the 49ers rallied to tie the game at 17-17 and 24-24. The 49ers also rallied after Pollard’s second TD with a Robbie Gould FG to pull within 34-27 with just :40 to play, but then WR CeeDee Lamb took the ensuing onside kick back 47 yards for a TD to extend the lead to 41-27 and clinch the upset at 175 on the money line. The 49ers did score on a 49-yard Hail Mary TD from C.J. Beathard to Kendrick Bourne as time expired, but it was too little too late.
Final score: Cowboys 41, 49ers 33
ATS winner: Cowboys
Total: Over 45.5
New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (-17, 44.5)
The Jets scored on their opening drive for the eighth straight game (an 18-yard TD pass from Sam Darnold to Ty Johnson), but this time they didn’t blow the lead as they pulled a shocking upset at 1100 on the money line (high of 1300 at the South Point) to avoid becoming the third team to go 0-16 in an NFL season. The Jets also blocked a punt and intercepted Jared Goff to set up FGs by Sam Ficken to take a 13-0 lead. The Rams got on the scoreboard as time expired in the first half on a 45-yard FG by Matt Gay, but the Jets kept the pressure on in the second half. The Rams did pull within 23-20 in the fourth quarter (and had a go-ahead TD run by Cam Akers called back), but the Jets’ defense never relinquished this lead and forced a four-and-out on the Rams’ final possession with 3:54 to play and the Jets ran out the clock from there.
The Rams’ loss affected survivor/eliminator pools from coast to coast, including 16 contestants in Circa Survivor that used them (they were used by all 16 contestants that still had them available as they were the biggest point-spread favorites of the week).
Final score: Jets 23, Rams 20
ATS winner: Jets
Total: Under 44.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 49.5)
Kyle Murray (406 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, plus another rushing) beat Jalen Hurts (338 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, plus another rushing) in the battle of former Oklahoma QBs. Murray’s 14-yard TD pass to Larry Fitzgerald (his first of the year and 17th straight year with a TD reception) with 2:13 left before halftime put the Cardinals ahead 26-14, but Hurts hit his second TD pass to Greg Ward and then score on a 7-yard run to tie the game 26-26 with :55 left in the third quarter (which also put the game Over the betting total, though the Eagles failed to take the lead as the snap on the PAT was bobbled). DeAndre Hopkins made a spectacular twisting catch of a 20-yard TD pass from Murray with 7:17 left in the game to put the Cardinals back ahead 33-26 and they held on from there for the win and the cover, though they had to turn away two Hail Marys in the closing seconds.
Final score: Cardinals 33, Eagles 26
ATS winner: Cardinals
Total: Over 49.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 53.5) at New Orleans Saints
This was the marquee game of the day with Drew Brees (234 passing yards, 3 TDs) returning to take on Patrick Mahomes (254 yards, 3 TDs). The Chiefs led 14-0, but the Saints pulled within 14-9 by halftime and nearly covered the first-half line of 0.5 points if they had been able to recover a fumble in the end zone for a TD instead of knocking it out of the back of the end zone with :03 left in the half. The Saints took the lead on their opening drive of the second half on Brees’ 24-yard TD pass to RB Latavius Murray, but the Chiefs regained the lead on Mahomes’ 5-yard TD pass to Mecole Hardman and then went ahead 29-15 on a 12-yard TD run by Le’Veon Bell with 13:44 in the game. However, the Saints wouldn’t go away as Brees hit Alvin Kamara on a 14-yard TD pass and then -- after Harrison Butker put the Chiefs back up 32-22 with 4:18 to play -- he hit Lil’ Jordan Humphrey on a 17-yard TD pass with 2:06 left to put the game on the closing line of 3 at 32-29 and causing just about all bettors to push, though some Chiefs -2.5 -120s were available.
Final score: Chiefs 32, Saints 29
ATS winner: Push
Total: Over 53.5
Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 45) at New York Giants
The Giants led 3-0 after the first quarter, but it should have been more as they tried a fake FG on their opening possession but the pass fell incomplete. After falling behind 7-3 after Baker Mayfield’s 2-yard pass to Austin Hooper, the Giants also passed up a chip-shot FG and RB Wayne Gallman Jr. was stopped short on a fourth-and-2 run from the Cleveland 6-yard line. Mayfield then hit Jarvis Landry on a 2-yard TD pass with :21 left in the second quarter to put the Browns ahead 13-3 and they coasted from there. Nick Chubb’s 1-yard TD run early in the fourth quarter put the game out of reach at 20-3.
Final score: Browns 20, Giants 6
ATS winner: Browns
Total: Under 45
-- Dave Tuley