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Week 15 NFL best bets: A play on every game

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Week 15 of the very unique 2020 NFL season is here.

With COVID-19 concerns in several games, be sure to check injury reports as we get closer to kickoff. Our experts Drew Dinsick, Dave Tuley and Matt Youmans combine to give their opinions on every game.

All odds as of Thursday evening, from VSiN's NFL odds page.

Buffalo Bills (-6, 49.5) at Denver Broncos

Tuley: This is the second game on the Saturday betting rotation, but it’s being played first at 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT. The Broncos came through for us on Sunday with a 32-27 upset of the Panthers. I already had this game circled for another Denver pick as the advance line was Bills -5. It re-opened at Bills -4 on Sunday afternoon (which seemed right to me considering the Broncos’ victory, and I still felt OK recommending them at + 4), Of course, the whole NFL-viewing world saw the Bills beat the Steelers 26-15 on Sunday Night Football and the line was re-posted at -4.5, and has been getting steamed higher. It appears to have settled at 6, which is good enough for me (though I’ll still wait to see if we get + 6.5 or better as the public continues to back the Bills.

Pick: Broncos + 6

Dinsick: We are in the time of season where injuries are starting to add up and cluster injuries can make a meaningful difference in a handicap. There are several examples of this in Week 15, and the Broncos secondary is a good example. Denver’s top four defensive backs are now out -- Bryce Callahan, Kevin Toliver and Duke Dawson were all added to the Injured Reserve this week joining Essang Bassey while AJ Bouye remains out due to suspension. This would be problematic in a normal week of action, but it’s especially concerning with Josh Allen and the fourth-best passing offense in the NFL coming to town. Buffalo is currently averaging 0.248 EPA per dropback in a season where Allen has ascended to a bona fide top-10 QB. The Bills defense has not covered themselves in glory this season clocking in as the No. 21 unit in EPA per play allowed.

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