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Week 14 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

December 11, 2021 02:41 PM
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Week 14 has arrived with 14 games, several of them with important playoff implications. No matter your handicapping style, you can incorporate trends as part of the process and consider their importance in each and every game for this week.

Let’s take a look at what these matchups have to offer in terms of top betting trends for Week 14.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 44)

The Steelers and Vikings are not in the same conference, but this game has huge playoff implications for both teams. The Vikings are looking to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Lions that dropped them to 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS on the season. The Steelers are looking to build off of the huge win against Baltimore, as they sit with a 6-5-1 SU record and a 5-7 ATS mark.

The Vikings are 7-5 to the Over, but the loss of Adam Thielen and recurring injuries to Dalvin Cook have lowered their projection this week. Pittsburgh is 7-5 to the Under to this point.

Trends:

  • Steelers are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Vikings.
  • Steelers are 2-6 SU in their previous eight games on the road.
  • Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • Steelers are 0-5 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-2 in Steelers' previous seven Thursday games.

 

  • Vikings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • Vikings are 2-4 SU in their previous six games.
  • Vikings are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
  • Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their previous six games as a home favorite.

More Steelers and Vikings Trends

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 48)

The first game was a 41-14 blowout in favor of the Chiefs, who went on the road to Sin City and put a beatdown on the Raiders. Las Vegas scored a really nice win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but then suffered a home setback against Washington and the Raiders have dropped four of the last five.

That loss put the Raiders back at .500 with a 6-6 mark. Both teams are 5-7 ATS, but the Chiefs are 8-4 SU on the season. Kansas City is 7-5 to the Under, as the defense has picked up the pace, while the offense has continued to struggle. The Raiders are 6-6 on totals.

Trends:

  • Raiders are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
  • Raiders are 2-4 ATS in their previous six games against the Chiefs.
  • Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last eight games against the Chiefs.
  • Raiders are 8-3 SU in their previous 11 games on the road.
  • Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last eight games when playing on the road against the Chiefs.
  • Over is 5-1 in Raiders' previous six against the AFC West.
  • Over is 8-2 in Raiders’ last 10 games following a SU loss.

 

  • Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their previous 13 home games.
  • Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs’ previous four games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 6-1 in Chiefs’ last seven games overall.

More Raiders and Chiefs Trends

 

New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43) at New York Jets

Some low-scoring games are a result of two good defenses coming together, but this one could end up being the opposite. Quarterback questions are the big stories on both sides. The Saints are still a sizable road favorite going to The Meadowlands in search of a sixth win on the season. New Orleans is 5-7 and this amounts to a must-win to have any hopes of hanging on in the playoff race.

The Jets are 3-9 SU and also ATS and they’re just planning for next season at this point. The Saints also have an ATS record that mirrors the SU mark. The Saints are 6-6 on totals, while the Jets are 7-5 to the Over on the season.

Trends:

  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Saints are 0-5 SU in their previous five games.
  • Saints are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.
  • Saints are 6-2 SU in their previous eight games against the Jets.
  • Saints are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
  • Saints are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as a favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in the Saints’ last seven games as a road favorite.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Saints' previous seven against a team with a losing record.

 

  • Jets are 8-20 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Jets’ previous five games as a home underdog.

More Saints and Jets Trends

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-9, 43.5)

The Jaguars are just 2-10 SU on the season as they head to the Music City to battle the Titans. Tennessee is 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS after a couple of ugly losses to the Texans and Patriots. Perhaps the bye week allowed Mike Vrabel and his team to shuffle the deck a bit.

The Jaguars have been bad from a wins and losses standpoint for bettors as well, going just 4-8 ATS. They have, however, been good for Under bettors with a mark of 10-2. The Titans are 7-5 to the Over on the season.

Trends:

  • Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the Titans.
  • Jaguars are 1-8 SU in their previous nine games against the Titans.
  • Jaguars are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
  • Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in their previous six meetings in Tennessee.
  • Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
  • Under is 5-0 in Jaguars’ previous five games following a SU loss.
  • Under is 5-0 in Jaguars’ last five games as a road underdog.

 

  • Titans are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite.
  • Titans are 6-2 SU in their last eight games.
  • Titans are 4-1 SU in their previous five games at home.
  • Titans are 7-0 SU in their last seven games when playing at home against the Jaguars.
  • Titans are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven against the AFC South.
  • Over is 4-1 in Titans' last five games following a SU loss.

More Jaguars and Titans Trends

 

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 42)

The Ravens and Browns play again for the second time in three weeks. In between, Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh while Cleveland was on the bye. The Browns took money in the Sunday Night Football game back in Week 12 and took money in this one as well, even though they are just 6-6 SU and 4-7-1 ATS. The Ravens are 8-4 SU and 5-7 ATS.

Weather could be a factor in Cleveland once again. The Browns are 6-6 on their totals and the Ravens are 7-5 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Browns.
  • Ravens are 5-1 SU in their previous six games against the Browns.
  • Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on the road against the Browns.
  • Ravens are 8-3 SU in their previous 11 games this season.
  • Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.
  • Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 4-0 in Ravens’ last four games overall.
  • Under is 5-0 in Ravens’ previous five games as a road underdog.

 

  • Browns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.
  • Browns are 2-13-1 ATS in their previous 16 home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Browns’ last six against a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Browns’ previous five games as a home favorite.

More Ravens and Browns Trends

 

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 42.5)

A couple of teams stuck in the mud spinning their wheels meet in one of the few games this week without playoff implications. The Falcons and Panthers are both 5-7 SU and 5-7 ATS on the season. Atlanta has played a bit better of late, but we haven’t seen a lot of consistency from either team this season, except for Carolina’s strong start against bad teams.

Both teams are also 7-5 to the Under, so they mirror each other in a lot of ways and this game is effectively a pick-em when you take away the home-field advantage.

Trends:

  • Falcons are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Falcons are 5-12 SU in their previous 17 games.
  • Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Panthers.
  • Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on the road.
  • Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog.
  • Under is 4-0 in Falcons’ last four games overall.

 

  • Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their previous four home games.
  • Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
  • Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their previous nine games.
  • Under is 5-2 in Panthers’ last seven games as a favorite.

More Falcons and Panthers Trends

 

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 48) at Washington Football Team

Last week was the week full of road favorites. We don’t have nearly as many this week, but the Cowboys are one of them. Dallas has been great against the spread this season with a 9-3 record to go with a mark of 8-4 SU. The Washington Football Team has gotten a lot better, winning four straight since the bye after a 2-6 start.

Washington’s 6-6 record is good enough to be within striking distance of Dallas for the top spot in the NFC East. A win here would make the rematch in two weeks very interesting. Washington is 5-7 ATS and 7-5 to the Under. Dallas is 6-6 with the totals over 12 games.

Trends:

  • Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • Cowboys are 8-3 SU in their previous 11 games.
  • Cowboys are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against Washington.
  • Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games on the road.
  • Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cowboys' previous six games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Cowboys’ last six games as a road favorite.

 

  • Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their previous four games as an underdog.
  • Football Team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win.
  • Under is 6-1 in Football Team’s previous seven games overall.
  • Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Washington.

More Cowboys and Washington Trends

 

Seattle Seahawks (-8, 42) at Houston Texans

Here is another road favorite, as the Seahawks are laying more than a touchdown against the Texans down in Houston. The Seahawks are just 4-8, but looked a lot better last week against the 49ers, so they’ve had a little bit of a bump in perception. Seattle is 6-6 ATS, but more notably, 9-3 to the Under.

The Texans are 8-4 to the Under, hence the really low total for this game by NFL standards in 2021. Houston is only 2-10 SU and just 5-7 ATS. The Texans do have a recent win over the Titans, but have played consistently bad for a while otherwise.

Trends:

  • Seahawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
  • Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games as a road favorite.
  • Seahawks are 3-8 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four games as a favorite.
  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks' previous four against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 6-0 in Seahawks' previous six road games.

 

  • Texans are 2-5 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Texans are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Under is 4-0 in Texans’ last four games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Texans’ previous six games as an underdog.

More Seahawks and Texans Trends

 

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 42)

Back to a home favorite here, as the Broncos are laying a very big number against the Lions. Denver is just 6-6 SU and 6-5-1 ATS, but the Broncos fared well against teams like Detroit early in the season. The Lions are just 1-10-1 coming off of their first win of the season.

While Detroit has not won games, they’ve won games against the spread, posting an 8-4 ATS record to this point in the year. The Under has been a good bet for both teams, as Detroit comes in 8-4 to the Under and the Broncos come in 10-2 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • Lions are 1-14-1 SU in their previous 16 games.
  • Lions are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against the Broncos.
  • Lions are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games overall.
  • Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 5-0 in the Lions’ previous five road games.

 

  • Broncos are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Broncos are 4-1 SU in their previous five games when playing at home against the Lions.
  • Broncos are 11-5 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos' previous five games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos’ last five against a team with a losing record.

More Lions and Broncos Trends

 

New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10, 43)

Another big favorite here and also another game with a low total. The Chargers are a double-digit favorite at home in search of a huge win that would improve their record to 8-5. They are 6-6 ATS thus far. The Giants are just 4-8 SU, but also 6-6 ATS on the season.

Low totals are a major theme this week and this is another one of the games that fits the bill. The Chargers are 7-5 to the Under, but the Giants are a whopping 8-3-1 to the Under and may add another one with either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm at QB.

Trends:

  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
  • Giants are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following a SU loss.
  • Giants are 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Giants are 4-2 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Giants are 5-11 SU in their last 16 games.
  • Giants are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games against the Chargers.
  • Giants are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Giants’ previous four games following a SU loss.

 

  • Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Chargers are 11-5 SU in their previous 16 games.
  • Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in Chargers’ previous seven against a team with a losing record.

More Giants and Chargers Trends

 

San Francisco 49ers (-1, 48.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

This line has done a lot of moving with the questionable status of Joe Burrow, who dislocated his pinkie finger last week in the loss to the Chargers. The Bengals opened a favorite, but are now a small dog. Cincinnati is 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS on the season. The Bengals have split their totals right down the middle at 6-6.

The 49ers are 6-6 SU, but last week’s setback against Seattle felt like a big one. San Francisco is 5-7 ATS, but has really rallied in that department after a rather ugly start to the season. The Niners are 7-5 to the Over.

Trends:

  • 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • 49ers are 12-3 SU in their previous 15 games against the Bengals.
  • 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games on the road.
  • 49ers are 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six games as a favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in 49ers’ previous five road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 7-2-1 in the 49ers' last 10 games as a road favorite.

 

  • The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games at home.
  • The Bengals are 2-5 SU in their last seven games when playing at home against the 49ers.
  • Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
  • Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games following an ATS loss.
  • Over is 5-1 in Bengals’ last six games overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Bengals’ previous five games following an ATS loss.

More 49ers and Bengals Trends

 

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 53.5)

The Bills and Bucs battle it out in Tampa, as Buffalo faces old adversary Tom Brady just six days after losing to Brady’s former team, the New England Patriots. The Bills are just 7-5 SU and ATS after having much higher expectations for this season, especially with the weak schedule faced to date.

The Buccaneers seem to be rounding into Super Bowl form, as they are 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS on the season. Both teams grade very well in the advanced metrics and hopefully we get some points in this one with so many low totals otherwise. The Bills are 7-5 to the Under and the Bucs are 6-6 with totals.

Trends:

  • Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Buccaneers.
  • Bills are 3-7 SU in their previous 10 games against the Buccaneers.
  • Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Bills are 8-2-2 ATS in their previous 12 games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 6-0 in Bills’ last six games as an underdog.
  • Over is 4-0 in Bills' previous four games as a road underdog.

 

  • Buccaneers are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their previous six games when playing at home against the Bills.
  • Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers’ previous seven games overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers’ last seven games as a favorite.

More Bills and Buccaneers Trends

 

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 43)

The influence of the big TV market in Chicago has robbed us of a Bills vs. Bucs primetime matchup, but the Bears and Packers are division rivals and there is no love lost between the two teams. Green Bay is a massive favorite, which should come as no surprise since Aaron Rodgers “owns” the Bears.

The Packers are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS. They’ve been outstanding against the spread this season. The Bears have not, going 4-8 ATS along with a 4-8 SU record. Both teams are 8-4 to the Under and we have yet another game with a low total.

Trends:

  • Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Bears are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games overall.
  • Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Bears’ previous five road games.

 

  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.
  • Packers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five home games.
  • Under is 7-1 in Packers’ last eight games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 7-1 in Packers’ previous eight games in December.
  • Under is 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games following a straight up win.

More Bears and Packers Trends

 

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 51.5)

The Rams and Cardinals meet in a massive Monday Night Football matchup that really puts an exclamation point on the playoff implications of the week. Arizona is a fairly small favorite, despite a comfortable win at SoFi Stadium earlier in the season. The Cardinals are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS and now have Kyler Murray back.

The Rams are 8-4 SU and 5-7 ATS on the season, as they’ve beaten up on the bums and lost to most of the good teams that they have faced. Los Angeles is 6-5-1 to the Over, while Arizona is 6-6 on totals this season.

Trends:

  • Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Rams are 10-5 SU in their previous 15 games.
  • Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Cardinals.
  • Rams are 8-1 SU in their previous nine games against the Cardinals.
  • Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • Rams are 6-0 ATS in their previous six games when playing on the road against the Cardinals.
  • Over is 9-1 in Rams’ last 10 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 7-1 in Rams’ previous eight games as a road underdog.

 

  • Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games following a SU win.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
  • Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their previous 10 home games.
  • Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite.
  • Cardinals are 2-6 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine Monday games.
  • Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their previous five home games against a team with a winning road record.

More Rams and Cardinals Trends

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