Week 12 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

November 26, 2021 07:41 AM
USATSI_17208332

Week 12 is upon us and starts with a lot of action early thanks to three Thursday games. With the Cardinals and Chiefs on bye weeks, that leaves us with only 11 games on Sunday. From the looks of the betting odds, we should have a lot of competitive games on this holiday weekend.

Let’s look at some betting trends for this week’s round of games.

Chicago Bears (-2.5, 41.5) at Detroit Lions

The Bears are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS heading into this NFC North rivalry game against the Lions. It looks like we’ll get Andy Dalton for the road favorites, who picked up a cover in last week’s loss to the Ravens. Chicago is 7-3 to the Under on the season.

The Lions are also 7-3 to the under, but Detroit remains winless after a 3-point loss to the Browns last week. The Lions did cover to improve to 6-4 in that department, which, frankly, is the only one that matters to bettors. Well, unless you bet Detroit to go winless this season.

Trends:

  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Bears are 0-5 SU in their previous five games.
  • Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Lions.
  • Bears are 6-1 SU in their previous seven games against the Lions.
  • Bears are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road.
  • Bears are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven against the NFC.
  • Under is 5-2 in Bears’ last seven games following an ATS loss.
  • Under is 7-2 in Bears' previous nine games overall.

 

  • Lions are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Lions are 0-13-1 SU in their previous 14 games.
  • Lions are 0-8 SU in their last eight games at home.
  • Lions are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Lions' last eight games as an underdog.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Lions' previous seven games following a SU loss.

More Bears and Lions Trends

 

Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 51)

The Raiders play a road Thursday night game for the first time since 2018 and play on Thanksgiving for the first time since 2013 in this matchup against the Cowboys. The Raiders are going in the wrong direction, having lost three in a row to fall to 5-5 for the season. They are 4-6 ATS through 10 games.

The Cowboys are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS to this point. Dallas is very much used to this annual tradition of playing on Thanksgiving, which could give the Cowboys the upper hand. Both teams are 5-5 on totals this season.

Trends:

  • Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Raiders are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games.
  • Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • Over is 7-2 in Raiders' previous nine games following a SU loss.
  • Over is 11-4-1 in Raiders’ last 16 games as an underdog.

 

  • Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games.
  • Cowboys are 7-2 SU in their last nine games.
  • Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games at home.
  • Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
  • Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven home games.
  • Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • Over is 8-3 in Cowboys' previous 11 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 5-2 in Cowboys’ last seven Thursday games.

More Raiders and Cowboys Trends

 

Buffalo Bills (-6, 45) at New Orleans Saints

Steady money on the Bills and the Under have been the storylines for this game in the betting markets this week. The Bills are just 6-4 SU and ATS on the season, as a lot more was expected of Buffalo this year. We’ll see if they can reward bettors for their confidence.

The Saints are 5-5 SU and ATS and this could very well be a playoff elimination game with what is setting up in the NFC. The Saints are actually 6-4 to the Over, which is rather shocking given how well the defense has played. The Bills are split down the middle at 5-5 on totals.

Trends:

  • Bills are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.
  • Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Saints.
  • Bills are 0-5 SU in their last five games against Saints.
  • Buffalo are 6-3 SU in their last nine games this season.
  • Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
  • Under is 8-1 in Bills’ last nine games following a SU loss.
  • Over is 7-3 in Bills' last 10 road games.

 

  • Saints are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
  • Saints are 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Saints’ last four games overall.
  • Under is 8-0-1 in Saints’ last nine Thursday games.
  • Over is 12-3-1 in Saints’ last 16 games as a home underdog.

More Bills and Saints Trends

 

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-6.5, 44.5)

Another game with a big line move on the favorite is this one between the Titans and Patriots. Lookahead lines had this game in the -2.5 range, but last week’s results necessitated an adjustment and it has been a big one.

Both the Titans and Patriots are 7-4 ATS on the season. Tennessee is one game better straight up at 8-3, but New England is lurking for that top spot with a 7-4 record and a winning streak in tow. The Titans are 6-5 to the Over and the Patriots are 6-5 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Titans are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Titans are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
  • Titans are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games against the Patriots.
  • Titans are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Patriots.
  • Titans are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as a road underdog.

 

  • Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • Patriots are 5-0 SU in their previous five games.
  • Patriots are 2-4 SU in their last six games at home.
  • Patriots are 6-1 SU in their previous seven games when playing at home against the Titans.
  • Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
  • Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games following a SU win.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Patriots' last four against the AFC.

More Titans and Patriots Trends

 

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5, 44.5)

A real barnburner of a game here featuring two 2-8 teams may actually have more intrigue than expected, expected with the return of Zach Wilson for the Jets, who may be without Mike White and Joe Flacco because of COVID protocols. The Jets are also 2-8 ATS, while the Texans are 5-5 against the number.

The Jets are 6-4 to the Over and the Texans are 6-4 to the Under, though the offense has been much more effective when Tyrod Taylor has played, as he will this week.

Trends:

  • Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Jets are 1-5 SU in their previous six games.
  • Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Over is 4-0 in Jets' previous four road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 6-1 in Jets' last seven games overall.

 

  • Texans are 1-8 SU in their previous nine games.
  • Texans are 1-6 SU in their last seven games at home.
  • Texans are 1-4 SU in their previous five games this season.
  • Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 5-1 in Texans' previous six home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Texans last five games overall.

More Jets and Texans Trends

 

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 46) at New York Giants

The Eagles are 5-6 SU and have the inside track on an NFC Wild Card spot if they can navigate a rather easy schedule the rest of the way. Philadelphia is a road favorite here against the Giants and a fairly big one at that. The Eagles are 6-5 ATS on the season.

The Giants are 3-7 SU after last week’s lopsided loss to the Bucs on Monday Night Football. New York is just 5-5 ATS and 6-3-1 to the Under on the season. The Eagles are 6-5 to the Over. The rising total seems like a bad sign for the Giants.

Trends:

  • Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Eagles are 6-13 SU in their previous 19 games.
  • Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Giants.
  • Eagles are 8-1 SU in their previous nine games against the Giants.
  • Eagles are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.
  • Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their previous four against the NFC.
  • Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ previous five games overall.
  • Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ last five games as a favorite.

 

  • Giants are 4-10 SU in their previous 14 games.
  • Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
  • Giants are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as an underdog.
  • Under is 7-0-1 in Giants’ last eight games as a home underdog.

More Eagles and Giants Trends

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 52.5) at Indianapolis Colts

This one just might be the game of the week in the NFL, especially with how the Colts have played of late. Indianapolis is 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS, as the Colts have been very kind to bettors, especially in recent games. The Buccaneers are 7-3 SU, but they’ve had some issues covering numbers, coming in at just 4-6 ATS off of last week’s cover against the Giants.

The Colts are 7-4 to the Over with a highly-potent running attack led by Jonathan Taylor, who had a “Bundy” last week with four rushing touchdowns. He added a receiving one for good measure. The Bucs are 5-5 with their totals to this point.

Trends:

  • Buccaneers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games.
  • Buccaneers are 0-5-1 ATS in their previous six games against the Colts.
  • Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road.
  • Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games when playing on the road against the Colts.
  • Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers’ last four games following a SU loss.

 

  • Colts are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games.
  • Colts are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • Colts are 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games at home.
  • Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog.
  • Over is 4-0 in Colts' previous four games as an underdog.
  • Over is 11-1 in Colts' last 12 against a team with a winning record.

More Bucs and Colts Trends

 

Atlanta Falcons (-2, 46.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

We had to wait a little bit to see which way the line would swing in this pick-em game, but it appears that the money has come in on the Falcons to send the line in that direction. Atlanta is 4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS in Arthur Smith’s first season at the helm.

The Jaguars are 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in Urban Meyer’s first season as an NFL head coach. The Jaguars are 8-2 to the Under, as the offense has really struggled with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. The Falcons have split their totals down the middle through 10 games.

Trends:

  • Falcons are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games.
  • Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Jaguars.
  • Falcons are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Jaguars.
  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 13-3 in Falcons’ last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.

 

  • Jaguars are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games at home.
  • Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Jaguars’ last five games overall.
  • Under is 5-0 in Jaguars’ last five games as an underdog.

More Falcons and Jaguars Trends

 

Carolina Panthers (-2, 42.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Panthers seemed to get a spark from Cam Newton in their win over the Cardinals, but could not replicate the feat last week in their loss to Washington. We’ll see if the Panthers can get back on track in a short favorite role here against Miami. Carolina comes in with a record of 5-6 SU and ATS.

The Dolphins are also 5-6 ATS, but one game worse in terms of actual wins and losses at 4-7. Miami has played a lot better of late after getting off to such a slow start. Both teams are 7-4 to the Under, which is a big reason why this is one of the lowest totals on the board.

Trends:

  • Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Panthers are 2-6 SU in their previous eight games.
  • Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Dolphins.
  • Panthers are 2-4 SU in their previous six games against Dolphins.
  • Panthers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
  • Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their previous six road games against a team with a losing home record.

 

  • Dolphins are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 games at home.
  • Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.
  • Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their previous 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Dolphins’ last four games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Dolphins' previous four games following a SU win.

More Panthers and Dolphins Trends

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 45)

This is a monster game in the AFC North, as well as in the AFC playoff picture. The Bengals are 6-4 SU and the Steelers are 5-4-1 SU, so the two teams are close in the crowded division. Cincinnati is 5-4-1 ATS, while the Steelers are 4-6 against the number.

Both teams are 6-4 to the Under as far as totals. Both teams are also coming off of trips out west, where the Bengals beat the Raiders and the Steelers lost to the Chargers.

Trends:

  • Steelers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Steelers are 4-1-1 SU in their previous six games.
  • Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against the Bengals.
  • Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on the road.
  • Steelers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games when playing on the road against the Bengals.
  • Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 8-3-1 in Steelers’ last 12 games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 7-3 in Steelers' previous 10 games overall.

 

  • Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • Bengals are 1-7 SU in their previous eight games when playing at home against the Steelers.
  • Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
  • Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their previous five home games.
  • Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.

More Steelers and Bengals Trends

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47.5) at Denver Broncos

We’ve got another short road favorite here, as the Chargers take on the Broncos. Los Angeles is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS on the season, while the Broncos come in with a record of 5-5 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. These two AFC West rivals, much like the Steelers and Bengals, have a big swing game here in terms of playoff probability. These are really important games, even though it is only Week 12.

The Chargers are 6-4 to the Under and the Broncos are 8-2 to the Under, but we’ve got a total in the upper 40s here, which is quite interesting.

Trends:

  • Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Chargers are 10-4 SU in their previous 14 games.
  • Chargers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against Denver.
  • Chargers are 5-15 SU in their previous 20 games against Denver.
  • Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five against the AFC West.
  • Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.

 

  • Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Broncos are 7-1 SU in their last eight games when playing at home against the Chargers.
  • Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their previous four against the AFC.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos' last five games as an underdog.
  • Under is 4-1 in Broncos' previous five home games.

More Chargers and Broncos Trends

 

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 48.5)

The Vikings and 49ers also play yet another one of those games with big postseason implications. Both teams come into this game at 5-5 and there is a huge difference right now in the NFC playoff picture between 6-5 and 5-6, so both teams will have to put a good effort into this one.

The Vikings are 6-4 ATS on the season, while the 49ers are 4-6 ATS. Both teams are split 5-5 on their totals. These two teams are a lot alike from a record standpoint, but go about things in different ways, so this should be an interesting game.

Trends:

  • Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Vikings are 4-2 SU in their previous six games.
  • Vikings are 6-3 SU in their last nine games against the 49ers.
  • Vikings are 1-10 SU in their previous 11 games when playing on the road against the 49ers.
  • Vikings are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games this season.
  • Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their previous four road games.
  • Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Over is 6-1 in Vikings' previous seven road games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Vikings' last five games following an ATS win.

 

  • 49ers are 1-8 SU in their previous nine games at home.
  • 49ers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against the Vikings.
  • 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games following an ATS win.
  • 49ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 6-1 in the 49ers' last seven games following an ATS win.

More Vikings and 49ers Trends

 

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (PK, 47)

Depending on the sportsbook you cite, there are some differences in the market between a pick-em game and some Rams -1. The Los Angeles side has taken a lot of money this week from sharp bettors. We’ve also seen a good bit of money on the under for this one, with this total steadily dropping as the week has gone along.

The Rams are 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS as they come off of the bye week. The Packers are 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS on the season. Green Bay is 8-3 to the Under, while the Rams are 5-4-1 to the Over with their 10 data points.

Trends:

  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Rams are 7-3 SU in their previous 10 games.
  • Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against the Packers.
  • Rams are 1-6 SU in their previous seven games against the Packers.
  • Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
  • Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.
  • Over is 6-1 in the Rams' last seven road games against a team with a winning home record.

 

  • Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Packers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Packers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • Under is 7-1 in Packers last eight games overall.

More Rams and Packers Trends

 

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46)

This is another game with some fascinating line movement. The Browns have actually taken the money throughout the week in what amounts to a huge game for Cleveland. The Browns are 6-5 SU and 4-6-1 ATS on the season. Baltimore is one better in the win column, but two better in the loss column, as the Ravens are 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS.

This is a big one because the Browns have the bye next week and then host the Ravens the following week. Cleveland is 6-5 to the Over and the Ravens have split their 10 totals right down the middle at 5-5.

Trends:

  • Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Browns are 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games against the Ravens.
  • Browns are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against the Ravens.
  • Browns are 2-11 SU in their previous 13 games when playing on the road against the Ravens.
  • Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the AFC North.
  • Over is 4-0 in Browns' last four games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 5-0 in Browns' last five against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Ravens are 2-4 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Ravens are 7-2 SU in their last nine games.
  • Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

More Browns and Ravens Trends

 

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team (-1, 46.5)

The Washington side has been the one taking the money here, as the Seahawks actually opened a favorite in this game, but the line has shifted in favor of the home team. Washington is 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS on the year, but the Football Team did score a nice win last week against Carolina.

Seattle is 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS, though several of those games were played without Russell Wilson. There are some bettors wondering if the Seahawks will just go into tank mode and this game could give us some more indication. The Seahawks are 8-2 to the Under this season, while Washington is 5-5 with totals.

Trends:

  • Seahawks are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
  • Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in their previous six games when playing on the road against the Washington Football Team.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last four Monday games.
  • Seahawks are 11-4 ATS in their previous 15 games as a road underdog.
  • Seahawks are 3-7 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks’ last four games as a road underdog.
  • Under is 5-0 in Seahawks' previous five road games.

 

  • Washington Football Team is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Washington Football Team is 2-4 SU in their previous six games.
  • Washington Football Team is 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • Over is 4-0 in Football Team's previous four games following a SU win.
  • Under is 4-0 in Football Team’s last four home games against a team with a losing road record.

More Seahawks and Washington Trends

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