Week 12 NFL best bets: Picks, odds for every game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

November 27, 2021 11:47 PM
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We've got a lot of close lines and what looks like a lot of competitive games, at least based on the spreads, for Sunday's NFL action. There are only 11 games because of the Thanksgiving holiday and MNF, but several matchups that mean a lot for playoff probability. 

Our VSiN experts -- Adam Burke, Dave Tuley, Will Hill, Wes Reynolds and Matt Youmans, along with Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus -- combine to give their opinions on every Sunday game in Week 12.

Note: Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday night.

Here are our Week 12 best bets:

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-7, 44)

Brown: Taking the Titans at the bottom of their market while selling the Patriots at the top of theirs is good value. PFF power ranks these teams similarly on a neutral field, and while injuries are a big deal, I don’t think they are worth a full 3-4 points here. Ryan Tannehill has 13 interceptions on 15 turnover-worthy plays this season. His interception luck hasn’t been great and although the Patriots have been taking full advantage of their opportunities, both should regress toward the mean. 

A.J. Brown's injury situation could be the key to this matchup, as Tannehill needs at least one able-bodied skill position player to make this offense function. Early reports indicate that he could be available, as his chest injury doesn't appear to be serious. 

New England’s offense appears to be overvalued despite the fact that the Mac Jones-Josh McDaniels combination is off to a successful start. Jones currently sits ninth in PFF passing grade, yet his EPA per pass attempt tells a completely different story. In that metric, he ranks 25th, which could be explained by New England's lack of playmakers at the wide receiver position. Eventually, this could even out, but some correction for the Patriots' offense is inevitable. Selling the Patriots offense looks like the perfect betting opportunity for Week 12.

Pick: Tennessee + 7

Tuley: The Patriots (7-4) are the flavor of the week. They’ve won and covered five straight and will enter this game no worse than tied for first in the AFC East, depending on what the Bills do on Thanksgiving. Last week’s advance line was Patriots -3 before the Titans inexplicably lost 22-13 to the Texans as 10-point home favorites. If this game was played just a few weeks ago, the Titans would probably have been short road faves. So this is a classic case of buy low/sell high. 

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